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2014 NFL Season: Week 14 Predictions
Week 13 Recap
Centrary, the simulator used to make these picks, did very well last week, going 13-3. It is now 116-75-1 for the year. It got the game of the week wrong, as the Packers held on to win; its now 8-5 in those games. It did get Jacksonville's win over the Giants correct; its also 8-5 in snore of the week picks as a result.
Best pick: A lot of good options here, but I'm going to give it to the Eagles win over Dallas, whose score was nearly what Centrary predicted it to be.
Worst pick: Well, I can't fault it too much for taking the Patriots, and it was never going to get the Steelers/Saints game right. That just leaves the Cardinals/Falcons game, which Centrary gave to the Cardinals comfortably.
Week 14 Picks
Some risky picks this week, probably won't be going 13-3 this time around.
Dallas 42, @Chicago 27: The Cowboys start with a 21-3 first quarter, then hang on to win thanks to 14 in the 4th.
@Cincinnati 37, Pittsburgh 17: The Bengals dominate the 2nd half, going 27-0 in the latter frame to earn the win.
@Cleveland 35, Indianapolis 28: This game may feature the first start of the ever-so-hyped Johnny Manziel. Centrary does not know this, yet its still taking the Browns to win, at home, against the division-leading Colts. Pretty bold pick, I suppose.
@Detroit 14, Tampa Bay 7: The Bucs get a TD in the 1st, the Lions gets TDs in the 2nd and 3rd. Pretty ho-hum.
Houston 27, @Jacksonville 24: The Texans get 10 in the 4th quarter to avoid the upset and keep on rolling. If it were up to Centrary, the Texans would be a division leading 10-3 right now. I don't know why it likes the Texans so much.
@Miami 27, Baltimore 13: A 10-10 game after three quarters, the Dolphins go off in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Ravens 17-3 in the 4th quarter to get the win.
@Minnesota 13, NY Jets 10 (OT): Each team trades touchdowns in the 2nd half, then field goals in overtime, but the Vikings get another FG in that OT frame to escape with victory.
@New Orleans 31, Carolina 9: The Saints score touchdowns throughout the game while limiting the Panthers only to field goals.
Snore of the Week - NY Giants 49, @Tennessee 21: The Giants explode in the 4th, going 21-0 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.
St. Louis 48, @Washington 37: The Rams outscore the Redskins 35-6 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters to get the edge in this shootout.
@Arizona 23, Kansas City 21: The Cardinals hold off the Chiefs to earn a tough win.
@Denver 24, Buffalo 19: The Broncos get everything they can handle from the Bills, getting a touchdown late to avoid the upset.
Game of the Week - Seattle 35, @Philadelphia 16: The Seahawks open up the third quarter with two touchdowns and hold off the Eagles from there to get a big win.
San Francisco 27, @Oakland 7: In this Bay Area showdown, the Raiders hold a 7-6 lead going into the 4th quarter, but the 49ers wake up from there with three touchdowns in the final frame to escape with the win.
New England 34, @San Diego 21: The Patriots get 14 in the 3rd quarter to pull away from the Chargers.
Atlanta 24, @Green Bay 20: The Packers have been way too good at home through six games at Lambeau. The Falcons are only 5-7, but leading their awful division by a sliver. Will the magic of Monday night give the Falcons the very unlikely upset? Centrary seems to think so.
To the right you'll see a chart depicting Centrary's accuracy and frequency of picking certain teams. As you can see, it loves picking Seattle, Houston, San Diego, Denver, New Orleans and New England, with only half of those teams deserving such frequency. Its very accurate on some teams, particularly bad teams whose losses are easy to predict. As noted last week, the two teams it really struggles with are the Saints and the Steelers, which means of course it would get the game between those two teams wrong. Otherwise, most other teams it picks correctly on at least a 40% or 50% clip.
In past quarterly hubs, I've also posted what the standings would look like if all of Centrary's picks were 100% accurate, but I've opted not to this time. The yellow column in the chart still provides that information if you're interested. At the end of the year, I will make a note as to which teams would've made the playoffs under Centrary's simulations, but any playoff sims I make will be of the actual field obviously.
How well will Centrary do this week? With some of its rather odd picks, I'm not expecting too much.
The predictions here were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.