2014 NFL Season: Week 17 Predictions
Week 16 Recap
The Centrary simulator went 10-6 last week, for a season total of 146-93-1. It got the game of the week correct, easily guessing Dallas. It's now 11-5 in those picks. Its snore of the week was also correct as Jacksonville defeated Tennessee. It's now 10-6 there.
Best pick: I thought the Atlanta pick last week was a bit surprising, but it ended up being a very accurate pick. Also some kudos for finally getting a Steelers game right again. I will note that its 2-13 currently picking Steelers games, and that its never correctly predicted a Steelers loss (eight times it picked Pittsburgh to lose, only for the Steelers to win).
Worst pick: There's three I'm looking at, including the Rams and Bills, but the Broncos pick had playoff importance and that pick did not work out at all, so I'm going with that one.
Week 17, of course, is the final week of the season. Ten teams have clinched playoff spots, only one AFC Wild Card and the NFC South are still up for grabs for spots. What's more, multiple teams are still battling for playoff seeding; the five teams in the NFC that have clinched all have 11-4 records, and two of them (Detroit & Green Bay) play each other. There is still a lot to play for this week.
Week 17 Picks
As always, these picks are made with the Centrary simulator.
Carolina 41, @Atlanta 39: The Falcons are down 38-16 after three, but mount a 23-point 4th quarter to take the late lead, only for Carolina to have just enough time to avoid disaster with a last-second field goal to give them the final playoff spot in the NFC.
@Green Bay 23, Detroit 13: This would be a game of the week in most other situations. However, the Lions have lost 23 in a row at Green Bay, their last win coming in 1991. Centrary agrees that it's probably going to extend to 24 in a row.
@Houston 31, Jacksonville 19: The Texans open up an eight point lead at halftime and hang on from there.
San Diego 23, @Kansas City 14: The Chiefs are up 14-10 at halftime but are shutout from there as three second half field goals give the Chargers the win, and the AFC's final playoff spot.
@Miami 41, NY Jets 3: The Jets are shut out until the 4th quarter. Not really much else to add here.
Snore of the Week - @Minnesota 28, Chicago 17: The Vikings pull off a 21-0 2nd quarter to put the game away, basically.
Buffalo 24, @New England 23: Another crazy pick from Centrary; possible given Buffalo would like to finish this season with a winning record and the Patriots do have the top seed in the AFC secured. Buffalo gets the only TD in the 4th quarter to pull it off.
Philadelphia 41, @NY Giants 24: The Eagles go 24-7 in the 2nd half to end what was otherwise a disappointing season.
Indianapolis 41, @Tennessee 14: The Colts control this game throughout, leaving Tennessee in shambles and not even with the #1 pick to make up for it.
@Baltimore 31, Cleveland 14: The Ravens outscore Cleveland 21-0 in the 4th quarter to avoid the upset, though San Diego's win leaves Baltimore out of the postseason.
New Orleans 31, @Tampa Bay 17: The Saints open up a 14-0 halftime lead, and hang on from there, giving Tampa Bay the top pick in next year's draft.
Dallas 34, @Washington 0: Score presented without further comment.
@Denver 42, Oakland 20: A 21-3 2nd half allows Denver to pull away and go into the postseason on a positive note.
@Seattle 37, St. Louis 24: What seemed unlikely a month or two ago would become reality with a Seattle win: Seattle would earn the #1 seed in the NFC.
Arizona 24, @San Francisco 13: The Cardinals pad their lead in the 4th and hold on to win.
Game of the Week - @Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 26: The Bengals rattle off 17 points in the 4th quarter, but its not enough as the Steelers hang on to win the AFC North.
If these picks are accurate (they probably won't be), the final playoff seeding will be as such:
- Green Bay
- New England
- San Diego
Next week, I'll take a look at Centrary's accuracy throughout the season, and give out first round playoff predictions.
The week 17 predictions were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.