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2014 NFL Season: Week 4 Predictions

Updated on September 23, 2014

When the 2014 season started, how many people would've believed that the last three teams to be undefeated would be the Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and the Arizona Cardinals? The Eagles and Cardinals faced stiff opposition from their divisional opponents in Week 3 but hung on to win, while the Bengals had life easy after two tough wins earlier in the year.


On the other side, many people would believe that last three teams yet to win would be the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Raiders kept things close in New England, the Jaguars and especially the Buccaneers make mockeries of themselves in their Week 3 games.

Week 4 is the first week of the season to feature byes for teams. Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle and St. Louis all have the week off. Miami and Oakland will also play in London this week, the first of two such games this season. I apologize to British fans in advance for having to witness that game.

Week 3 Recap

The simulator found at centrary.com had, by far, its best week, going 13-3. Its season total now stands at 29-19.

It guessed the game of the week correctly (Seattle over Denver) and is now 3-0 in such picks. It guessed the snore of the week wrong (Houston over the Giants), and is now 0-3 in such picks. Go figure.

Best pick: Centrary predicted a 38-31 Eagles shootout win over Washington, and it got a 37-34 Eagles shootout win over Washington. Its about accurate as they come.

Worst pick: Never mind that it picked Carolina over Pittsburgh, which wasn't a bad move on its own, but more so that it predicted a 7-3 final. To be fair, it was 9-3 Pittsburgh at halftime, though.

Week 4 Picks

The Centrary simulator will again simulate this week's 13 games.

NY Giants 38, @Washington 28: The Giants win a relatively close game. Centrary has not been good picking Giants games so far.

@Chicago 38, Green Bay 14: The Bears open up a 17-0 halftime lead, then keeps it up to earn an easy win.

@Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 21: The Colts stage a 17-7 4th quarter comeback to earn the victory.

Buffalo 17, @Houston 14: The Bills edge out the Texans in perhaps the most unexpected 2-1 vs 2-1 matchup in recent history.

@NY Jets 24, Detroit 20: The Jets go up 21-10 early, then hang on. Centrary is not big on the Lions, it seems.

@Pittsburgh 34, Tampa Bay 21: The Steelers are actually behind 21-17 going into the 4th quarter before scoring the game's final 17 points to mount the comeback win.

Snore of the Week - Oakland 31, Miami 7 (In Wembley Stadium): The NFL attempts to convert British fans by giving them this mess of a matchup. On a neutral field, Centrary gives the Raiders a confusingly easy win.

Carolina 31, @Baltimore 10: Carolina cruises to victory, nothing else to say.

@San Diego 24, Jacksonville 3: The Jaguars offense, which is starting Blake Bortles this week, apparently gets shut down by the Chargers defense, which is perfectly believable.

Atlanta 27, @Minnesota 10: The Falcons pull away in the 2nd half, continuing Minnesota's nightmare. Remember when Adrian Peterson helped lead the Vikings to that Week 1 blowout over the Rams? Neither do I.

Game of the Week - @San Francisco 28, Philadelphia 21: The Eagles had a 21-3 halftime lead. The 49ers get a TD in the 3rd then outscore Philly 18-0 in the 4th to complete a comeback win.

New Orleans 37, @Dallas 7: On Sunday Night, I totally believe this can happen, especially since the Saints will be playing in a domed environment.

New England 20, @Kansas City 9: The Patriots get an early lead and limit the Chiefs to only field goals.

Takeaways

Next week, I will post data related to Centrary's picks for these first four weeks, including a set of standings (through a simulated Week 5) that would be 100% inaccurate because these standings are based off of Centrary's predictions, not actual game results. Also posted will be a set of metrics that show just how accurate Centrary has been for each team. With 3-4 games of data for each time, it won't be much, but it'll show some trends on how accurate it is from team to team.

The predictions here were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.

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