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2014 NFL Season: Week 5 Predictions

Updated on September 30, 2014

Week 4 provided plenty of surprises, yet again. Who would've thought the Chiefs would dominate the Patriots? The Cowboys destroying the Saints? The Buccaneers winning? Its that kind of unpredictability that brings so many people back to the NFL each and every Sunday (or Monday, Thursdays need not apply).

This week, alongside my picks, I'll look back into my first four weeks to see how well I've done overall and in specific areas.

To note, Week 5 has only two bye week teams: Miami and Oakland who are both returning from a one-sided affair in London.

Week 4 Recap

The simulator, in contrast to last week, had by far its worst week this season, thankfully it was only a 13-game week. Still, it only got four of those 13 games right, a 4-9 record for a season total now of 33-28.

Once again, it got the Game of the Week right (San Fran over Philly) and is now 4-0 in such games. Once again, it got the Snore of the Week wrong (Oakland over Miami), and is now 0-4 in such games.

Those two picks are, subsequently, the Best and Worst picks from last week, respectively. Centrary predicted a 28-21 Niners win, and San Francisco was only two points shy of matching that mark. Conversely, not only did Centrary predicts a Raiders win, it predicted a Raiders blowout, when the exact opposite happened. The simulator predicting a Saints blowout over Dallas is a close second, but doesn't win because I suspect a lot of people predicted that whereas Centrary was probably the only thing that gave Oakland such a big win.

If Centrary was 100% right, these would be the standings.  Note that these are NOT the REAL standings.
If Centrary was 100% right, these would be the standings. Note that these are NOT the REAL standings.

Season Recap (Through Week 4)

Up through Week 4, Centrary has picked three teams to win each and every time: Seattle (three times, actually 2-1), New Orleans (four times, actually 1-3) and New England (four times, actually 2-2).

Centrary has picked two teams to lose each and every time: Minnesota (four times, actually 2-2) and Jacksonville (four times, actually 0-4).

In terms of accuracy, Centrary is currently 100% when picking games involving six teams: Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington.

Meanwhile, Centrary has been completely unable to figure out two teams, having picked games for these two teams wrong each and every time: Miami and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville play each other this week, so something will have to give there.

Centrary has also done well (75%) picking games for Chicago, Green Bay, the Jets, Oakland and San Diego. Meanwhile, it has done poorly (25%) picking for Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Kansas City, New Orleans, the Giants and Tampa Bay. Fans of these teams should be aware of this going forward unless trends start to say differently.

Also posted are what the standings would be based solely on Centrary's picks. As you can see, there is a lot of differences between these standings and the real one.

Week 5 Picks

As always, the picks are courtesy of the Centrary simulator.

Minnesota 25, @Green Bay 16: Already, I'm sweating bullets. The Vikings open up a 21-6 lead before winning.

Chicago 24, @Carolina 21: The Bears withstand a 4th quarter comeback to earn the win.

@Indianapolis 31, Baltimore 21: A close games, the Colts - whose two wins have come against the Titans and Jaguars - may finally pick up a quality win here.

Houston 41, @Dallas 38 (OT): A back and forth affair, Dallas ties it up late before Houston wins in OT on a field goal.

@Detroit 24, Buffalo 21: The Lions stage a 4th quarter comeback by scoring the game's final 10 pts. No, Centrary does not account for Kyle Orton starting for the Bills next week.

Snore of the Week - Pittsburgh 37, @Jacksonville 10: Centrary has the Steelers winning big against another bad team, this time with the Steelers opening up a 31-7 halftime lead. Surely the Steelers won't blow it again, right? Making it the cursed Snore of the Week probably doesn't help matters much.

@New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 16: The Saints really need their home dome to get back on track, opening up a 24-6 halftime lead on Tampa Bay.

@NY Giants 33, Atlanta 28: The Giants score the game's final 16 points to pull off the stunning win over the struggling Falcons.

Cleveland 33, @Tennessee 10: This is the least surprised I've been towards a prediction of a Browns blowout win in several years.

@Philadelphia 34, St. Louis 14: An easy win for the Eagles as they lead throughout.

Game of the Week - @Denver 36, Arizona 20: A close game until the 4th quarter, when the Broncos pull away.

@San Diego 41, NY Jets 14: After a quiet 7-7 1st quarter, the Chargers blow away the Jets.

@San Francisco 27, Kansas City 10: The 49ers get a 20-3 halftime lead en route to the win.

Cincinnati 34, @New England 20: The Bengals maintain an early lead to prolong New England's woes.

Seattle 34, @Washington 7: A complete blowout, expect time on the broadcast to instead be filled by continued debate over the Redskins' name.


Centrary, and my picks subsequently, are a bit behind the curve at the moment thanks in part to last week, and some of this weeks picks are somewhat bold. Still, predictions are simply that, and its fun to try and predict how games will go.

The predictions here were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.


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