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2014 NFL Season: Week 9 Predictions

Updated on October 28, 2014

Week 8 Recap

While my picks - made through the Centrary simulator - did not get a single primetime game right, it still did well overall last week, going 11-4. Its now 71-49-1 for the season. It did correctly guess Arizona in the Game of the Week, now 7-1 in those picks, and it did get Minnesota right in the Snore of the Week to go 4-4 in those picks.

Best pick: A few to choose from, including the Browns close shave and the Patriots blowout but the Arizona pick really stands out for me.

Worst pick: None of the four picks that went wrong were particularly bad. San Diego was perhaps the riskiest pick that didn't pan out, but I didn't believe that to be a "bad pick" per se. The Steelers pick looks bad given what really happened, but considering Centrary's luck with Pittsburgh that's mostly par for the course, so I suppose the Chargers pick was the worst.

Week 9 features six teams on bye, including every team in the NFC North except for Minnesota. Buffalo, Atlanta and Tennessee are also off. That leaves 13 games to make picks for.

Week 9 Picks

All picks are made using the Centrary simulator.

@Carolina 28, New Orleans 23: Carolina goes up 14-3 after one quarter and hangs on for the Thursday night win.

@Cincinnati 17, Jacksonville 10: The Jaguars keep it close, but the Bengals get a touchdown in the 4th quarter to escape with a win.

@Cleveland 27, Tampa Bay 20: The Browns are down by 10 going into the 4th but score the game's final 17 points to get the comeback win.

@Dallas 45, Arizona 30: A complete shootout, Dallas pulls away at the end to make up for last week's loss. This probably assumes Tony Romo's back problems are nonexistent which is a lot to assume at this point.

@Houston 27, Philadelphia 17: I'm a bit hesitant with this one, but Houston has had a very good defense for much of this season. Could J.J. Watt and that Houston pass rush give the Eagles trouble? Centrary thinks so.

@Kansas City 38, NY Jets 3: I know its the Jets, but wow. Those of you unaware may be shocked at my surprise with this pick; again I'm using a simulator to make these picks, and this is the result it gave me. I can't blame it for doing so.

San Diego 17, @Miami 7: Finally, a road pick. Scoreless at the half, the Chargers are the better team in the 2nd half and earn a tough-fought victory.

Snore of the Week - @Minnesota 17, Washington 7: Tied 7-7 at the half, Minnesota shuts Washington out the rest of the way and gets another win.

@San Francisco 26, St. Louis 13: Closer than the final score, the Rams give the 49ers trouble for most of the game until San Francisco finally pulls away at the end.

Game of the Week - Denver 24, @New England 21 (OT): Somehow, Centrary thinks this game will be scoreless during the 2nd half. Both teams score 21 in the 1st half, which leads to an overtime period where a single Denver field goal decides the victor.

@Seattle 23, Oakland 17 (OT): Seattle scores the first 17 points, but Oakland storms back with 17 second half points to tie it up. A seemingly uninspired Seattle team gets it together with an overtime touchdown to avoid the upset.

Baltimore 41, @Pittsburgh 3: Centrary is so bad at picking Steelers game, I don't even know what to make of this. I guess assume a Steeler victory here. I highly doubt a score like this will happen.

Indianapolis 31, @NY Giants 17: In the first matchup between these teams without the "Manning brothers" storyline in a decade, the Colts outscore New York 21-7 in the 4th quarter to get the win.

The NFL standings (if Centrary was right 100% of the time)
The NFL standings (if Centrary was right 100% of the time)
Success/failure picking for each team.
Success/failure picking for each team.

Takeaways

Following Week 9, every team will be at least halfway through their regular seasons. To the right are two charts: the first is what the standings would look like if Centrary's picks were 100% accurate. As you can see, there are many glaring differences between Centrary's picks and what's really happened.

The second chart is an accuracy chart, broken up into several different categories. The green columns indicate a team's record when Centrary picks them to win; the red when they're picked to lose. The violet column is the accuracy column, how often Centrary is correct when predicting a team, so "Good" means when a team is picked to win, they win and when a team is picked to lose, they lose. "Bad" is when neither of those things happen.

As you can see, Centrary has yet to predict a 49er game incorrectly, and is very accurate for Colts and Eagles games. Its also very accurate for Raiders and Jaguars games, but picking those two to lose every game isn't exactly rocket science.

Conversely, Pittsburgh is by far the most difficult team for Centrary to predict, as its only gotten one of the Steelers eight games correct while getting every other team right at least twice. Will this week be any different? For Baltimore's sake, here's hoping it is.

The predictions here were made with the Centrary sports simulator, which simulates teams, not players, and in a quick, simple fashion.

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