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Judgment Year: Aaron Judge on Pace for Greatest Rookie Season Ever
The All-Star break is upon us, the nominal halfway point of the season (although all teams have already played more than half their games.) One of the biggest stories of the first half, of course, is the rookie season of Aaron Judge.
Heading into the All-Star Game, Judge is leading all of baseball with 30 homers, on base percentage at .448, slugging at .691, and OPS at 1.139. He is second in runs at 75 (one behind George Springer) and second in the American League in RBIs at 66 (four behind Nelson Cruz). He is batting .329, third best in the AL, and has 99 hits, ninth in the AL. He leads the AL in walks with 61. Perhaps as impressive as any stat is that when he makes contact, his batting average is .516, which pretty much negates the fact that he’s also struck out 109 times.
Already Among the Elite
So just how good is his season? Well, if he stopped right now, his homer, RBI, and run totals already make this one of the 23 best rookie seasons ever. Only 22 other rookies have ever had 30-plus homers, 75-plus runs, and 66-plus RBIs. And they all did that over a full season.
Rookies with at least 30 HR, 75 R, 66 RBI
Player
| Year
| HR
| R
| RBI
| G
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark McGwire, A's
| 1987
| 49
| 97
| 118
| 151
|
Frank Robinson, Reds.
| 1956
| 38
| 122
| 83
| 152
|
Wally Berger, Braves
| 1930
| 38
| 98
| 119
| 151
|
Albert Pujols, Cards
| 2001
| 37
| 112
| 130
| 161
|
Al Rosen, Indians
| 1950
| 37
| 100
| 116
| 155
|
Jose Abreu, White Sox
| 2014
| 36
| 80
| 107
| 145
|
Mike Piazza, Dodgers
| 1993
| 35
| 81
| 112
| 149
|
Ron Kittle, White Sox
| 1983
| 35
| 75
| 100
| 145
|
Hal Trosky, Indians
| 1934
| 35
| 117
| 142
| 154
|
Ryan Braun, Brewers
| 2007
| 34
| 91
| 97
| 113
|
Walt Dropo, Red Sox
| 1950
| 34
| 101
| 144
| 136
|
Jose Canseco, A's
| 1986
| 33
| 85
| 117
| 157
|
Jimmie Hall, Twins
| 1963
| 33
| 88
| 80
| 156
|
Chris Young, Diamondbacks
| 2007
| 32
| 85
| 68
| 148
|
Tony Oliva, Twins
| 1964
| 32
| 109
| 94
| 161
|
Tim Salmon, Angels
| 1993
| 31
| 93
| 95
| 142
|
Ted Williams, Red Sox
| 1939
| 31
| 131
| 145
| 149
|
Aaron Judge, Yankees
| 2017
| 30
| 75
| 66
| 84
|
Mike Trout, Angels
| 2012
| 30
| 129
| 83
| 139
|
Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox
| 1997
| 30
| 122
| 98
| 153
|
Pete Incaviglia, Rangers
| 1986
| 30
| 82
| 88
| 153
|
Willie Montanez, Phillies
| 1971
| 30
| 78
| 99
| 158
|
Bob Allison, Senators
| 1959
| 30
| 83
| 85
| 149
|
Players who have hit 30-plus homers, with 75-plus runs and 66-plus RBIs, with number of game it took to accomplish it.
Add in his walks, and you’ll find only 10 other rookies have ever had at least 30, 75, 66, and 61. Only one other of those players has hit as high as .329 while doing that (Albert Pujols).
Rookies with at least 30 HR, 75 R, 66 RBI, 61 BB
Player
| Year
| HR
| R
| RBI
| BB
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ted Williams, Red Sox
| 1939
| 31
| 131
| 145
| 107
|
Al Rosen, Indians
| 1950
| 37
| 100
| 116
| 100
|
Tim Salmon, Angels
| 1993
| 31
| 93
| 95
| 82
|
Mark McGwire, A's
| 1987
| 49
| 97
| 118
| 71
|
Albert Pujols, Cards
| 2001
| 37
| 112
| 130
| 69
|
Mike Trout, Angels
| 2012
| 30
| 129
| 83
| 67
|
Willie Montanez, Phillies
| 1971
| 30
| 78
| 99
| 67
|
Jose Canseco, A's
| 1986
| 33
| 85
| 117
| 65
|
Frank Robinson, Reds
| 1956
| 38
| 122
| 83
| 64
|
Jimmie Hall, Twins
| 1963
| 33
| 88
| 80
| 63
|
Aaron Judge, Yankees
| 2017
| 30
| 75
| 66
| 61
|
Rookies who had 30-plus homers, 75-plus runs, 66-plus RBIs and 61-plus walks.
One of the Best Seasons Ever?
What happens if Judge continues at the same pace the rest of the season? Something pretty awesome. He played in 84 of the Yankees first 86 games. The team has 76 games remaining, so say he plays in 74 of those. At the same pace he’s currently playing at, he’ll wind up with this incredible stat line:
143 runs, 56 homers, 124 RBIs, 115 walks, .328 BA, .447 OBP, .684 slugging, 1.131 OPS.
That would qualify as one of the six best stat lines of all time, rookie or veteran (move his batting average up one tick to .329 and it’s one of the top five).
Could Judge Join This Elite Group?
Players
| Year
| HR
| R
| RBI
| BA
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sammy Sosa, Cubs
| 2001
| 64
| 146
| 160
| .328
|
Babe Ruth, Yankees
| 1927
| 60
| 158
| 165
| .356
|
Babe Ruth, Yankees
| 1921
| 59
| 177
| 168
| .378
|
Jimmie Foxx, A's
| 1932
| 58
| 151
| 169
| .364
|
Hack Wilson, Cubs
| 1930
| 56
| 146
| 191
| .356
|
The only players ever to hit 56-plus homers, with 143-plus runs, 124-plus RBIs and .328 or better batting average.
Even if Judge Slumps, Could Still be Best Rookie Season Ever
While Yankee fans would obviously love to see that season become reality, the truth is that Judge probably won’t keep that up. Many players, and especially rookies, have second half slumps. So let’s take a look to see what would happen if Judge doesn’t quite live up to the first half. Obviously, all numbers I’m using are conjecture, but have a basis on what he did the first half with a corresponding decrease in production.
Suppose he slumps to hit only .275 after the All-Star break, a decrease of 54 percentage points. Correspondingly, he hits only 20 more homers, scores just 50 more runs, and has just 45 more RBIs. Since he’s slumping he drops in walks as well to 48. Where does that leave him?
His final season line will be .303, 125 runs, 111 RBIs, 109 walks, .418 OBP, .614 slugging, 1.032 OPS. That would be the best season ever by a rookie (even disregarding homers, it would be the third best behind Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio).
OK, so let’s assume he really slumps. Let’s say he hits only .250 after the break. He hits just 15 more homers, scores 45 more runs with 40 more RBIs, and walks only 42 more times. Quite a drop off from the first half. Where does that leave him for the season?
His final line would show a .291 batting average, with 45 homers, 120 runs, 106 RBIs and 103 walks, .402 OBP, .573 slugging and a .975 OPS. Still results in the best rookie season ever (take out homers and it’s still third best behind Williams and DiMaggio).
In other words, even if Judge performs rather poorly after the All-Star break, he is still going to have the best rookie season ever. Only if he collapses completely to the point they’ll have to send him back to the minors will he not have the best rookie season ever. Then it probably would only be in the top 5.
