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The Best 5 Bets for Week 3 of NFL Football

Updated on September 20, 2018
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An average fan of America's greatest gladiator sport. *All picks are based off my completely amateur opinions, bet at your own risk* S


Game #1 New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Risky Upset

The Atlanta Falcons are (-)175 favorites to win at home on Sunday. This game promises to be highly entertaining, as the teams have quite a bit of history. In the last four games that the teams have played in Atlanta, the games have been decided by a total of 15 points. Matt Ryan has led the Falcons in 10 games at home against New Orleans, since being drafted in 2008; he is 5-5.

Coming into the contest, both teams hold a 1-1 record, with the Falcons coming off a close win against the Panthers and the Saints against the Browns.

This game could go either way and both teams (as always) have a lot at stake. Through 2 games, the Falcons seem to have played better than the Saints, and have home-field advantage. However, considering the spread, I believe that there is enough value to pick the Saints (+) 155 as an upset in a MoneyLine bet. My two biggest reasons for this are that the Saints are historically bad in the first 2 weeks of the season (1-9 in the last 5 years), and if the game proves to be the closely contested game I expect, there is a good chance that Drew Brees and company escape with a W.

Take the Saints (+) 155 in a Money Line bet

Aww | Source

Game #2 San Diego Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: Huge Spread, Rams don't Cover

This is my big upset of the week pick. I like the talent on the Chargers, and though it's hard to bet on Phillip Rivers closing a game against a Rams team that has outscored their last opponents a total of 56-0 in the last 6 quarters of football, I don't believe that the Rams cover their 7 point spread.

To me, the best thing that the Chargers have going for them is their Offensive Line. This unit will be huge against a Rams team which boasts one of the best Defensive Lines in football. Phillip Rivers is talented enough to sling with Goff, and I expect this game to be a bit of a shoot-out. Furthermore, the Chargers will be the first real challenge for this Rams team.

If I had to predict the outcome, I would take the Rams to win, but I think that there is enough talent on the Chargers under Kyle Shanahan to expect a contest decided by less than a TD.

Take the Chargers (+) in a 7 {Money Line} bet.

EDIT(9/20/2018) from {Point Spread}

Eyes of a killer
Eyes of a killer | Source

Game #3 San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs: Pick your Poison

The streaking rookie of KC, Patrick Mahomes, squares off against Jimmy Garoppolo and the Fighting 49er's. Kansas City has looked absolutely stellar this year, winning in convincing fashion in the first two weeks of play.

By contrast, Garoppolo has not lived up to the expected hype for San Francisco, coming up with 3 TD's 3 INT's a passer rating of 77 and a 1-1 record through two weeks. However, in Garoppolo's defense, he is working under a new system and all three of his picks came against MN's stalwart defense. Garoppolo has also looked the worst facing pressure, something that the Chiefs struggle with according to PFF. Schematically, the 49er's run a few plays similar to the Chiefs, which might help them slow down that Offense. My personal pick with this game would be to take the 49er's in a point-spread bet.

I'm taking the 49er's (+) 5.5 Against the Spread

P.S. The Chiefs, however, have an extremely explosive offense and a young quarterback that is playing like this year's Carson Wentz. Personally, I don't see the 49er's coming up on top on the road. I think that a more conservative bet would be to take the Chiefs to win straight up in a Money Line Bet, sitting as a (-) 300 favorite. The reason I go with the 9er's against the Spread is that I expect the game to be close and there is greater upside in that line.

Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill | Source

Game #4 Pittsburg Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aggressive Lock

The Steelers are traveling to Tampa this week to square off against Ryan Fitzpatrick and his new team. The Steelers have struggled in the past two weeks, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never looked this good in my eyes. I expect their hot streak to continue at home. The fact that they are only a one point favorite at this point, makes me think that the reputation of the Steelers precedes their play.

From what I can see, there is plenty of drama happening inside the Steelers organization. From Le'veon Bell's hold-out, to Antonio Brown not showing up for practice, Mike Tomlin's control of his team has been questionable thus far this season.

Given the line, I think that taking the Bucs in either a Money Line or Point Spread bet to be a fairly safe and profitable pick.

However, we know that Tomlin is great at hyping up players, and being down 0-2 might be enough motivation to get them over the top. Given the narrow line, I'll take:

Tampa Bay as a Lock that covers their Spread

God, you gotta love the Fitz. So Humble.
God, you gotta love the Fitz. So Humble. | Source

Game 5 Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins: Lock of the Week

The Redskins are yet another team this year that has looked great with their new quarterback. The Packers, have Aaron Rodgers. In the first two games, Rodgers has demonstrated that he is back in top form regardless of injury. I would expect a very hot and determined Rodgers following the 29-29 tie with the Vikings last week.

The Redskins have looked great this year as well, and playing at home is probably why the spread is listing them as + 300 dogs. I believe that Aaron Rodgers will have yet another great performance Sunday, and the Green Bay Packers should walk away with the win covering their spread.

Take the Pack to cover their Spread. Easy $$

And for a moment, the owners all freaked out at once.
And for a moment, the owners all freaked out at once. | Source


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