What is Inflation, How is it Calculated and How Does it Affect a Nation's Economy?
92Inflation is the Practice of Printing More Money than the Economy Needs
The term inflation refers to an increase in the amount of money in circulation without a corresponding increase in the amount of goods and services available to purchase with that money. Inflation always results when governments resort to printing or creating money in quantities greater than the amount of goods and services available to spend the money on.
Inflation is similar to taxes in that it gives government the money needed to spend as it wants and with this power it is able to both buy what it wants as well as influence the direction of the economy. Like taxes in which the government takes money from its citizens to spend itself, inflating the money supply by printing more money has the same effect in that it enables the government to take purchasing power from the citizens and spend it as it wishes.
A Cartoon That Provides An Excellent Explaination of Inflation
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Prices are the Market's Way of Rationing Scarce Goods
As can be seen from above, scarce goods and services can only be rationed by prices effectively so long as the ratio of money in circulation to the amount of goods and services available remains relatively constant. This is why counterfeiting or the printing of official currency by individuals is illegal. Large increases in the supply of money in circulation without a corresponding increase in availability of goods and services result in an increase in prices. If everyone has twice as much money this week than they had last week, then the first ones to the stores will be able to purchase twice as much as before leaving little for those who come later. As people compete for the scarce goods they begin to offer to pay more in order to get what they want and in no time prices will adjust upward to the point where a balance between the money in circulation and goods available is again restored.
Today, inflation is associated with governments and rightly so, as modern governments have reserved for themselves the power to manage the money supply within their borders. Historically, governments have claimed the exclusive right to coin money - that is produce official coins using precious metals, usually gold or silver, but modern governments have now monopolized the creation and management of the entire money supply. Thus, in today's world, inflation is the result of deliberate manipulation of the money supply to achieve political goals of government. The currency used in the United States, and in most other nations, is known as fiat currency meaning that it is simply a piece of paper issued by the government, or government controlled bank, which has value solely because the government says so. In the past paper money could be exchanged for a fixed amount of a valuable commodity, usually gold but sometimes silver or other thing of value. This conversion feature limited the government's ability to increase the money supply by printing more bills.
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Inflation and Gold
Gold, being a highly prized metal whose supply is both limited and increases slowly, has long been used for money. Pegging money to gold, known as a gold standard, usually works to keep the money supply in balance with the goods and services available, thus keeping prices stable. While inflation rarely occurs with a gold standard, there is at least one major instance of inflation under a gold standard and this was the inflation that swept Europe in the sixteenth century following the Spanish conquest of the Aztec and Inca Empires in the New World and the subsequent transport of boatloads of the massive gold holdings of these empires to Europe. Spain didn't have to convert all of this gold to money. Much of flowed directly into the hands of investors who financed the expeditions and those who participated in them. Because it is coveted by all due to its value, gold can be exchanged directly in payment for purchases - coining gold as money merely facilitates exchange which can also be also accomplished by using gold itself.
Another way inflation can result while on a gold standard is through what is known as fractional reserve banking, which is the practice of backing paper money with gold but issuing more paper than there is gold to back it. This is an ancient practice and can be practiced by either private banks or governments. When done in moderation this can work (modern banking systems, including that of the United States, does this using checking accounts and other financial instruments backed by a smaller supply of official currency) so long as people have confidence that they can exchange their gold backed notes for the gold backing it.
This practice of fractional reserve banking began in ancient times when people, not wanting to have to carry gold around with them or leaving it unprotected in their homes, would entrust it to a merchant who had a secure place to store it. The merchant would issue a receipt in exchange for the physical gold and people soon found that, rather than running to the merchant to withdraw their gold every time they made a purchase, they could simply pay for their purchase by handing over their receipt for the gold rather than the gold itself. Upon discovering that most people simply exchanged receipts rather than physically claiming the gold, merchants offering secure gold depository services found they could increase their revenue by loaning out the gold and changing interest (thus earning interest on the gold they held in addition to the fees they charged to the owners of the gold for its safekeeping).
In most cases the loans consisted of a receipt for the amount borrowed rather than physically handing over the gold. Of course, if this lending became excessive people would become concerned and begin exchanging their receipts for gold. Panics would often ensue whereby everyone rushed over to withdraw their gold and when the merchant was unable to honor all of the receipts, the holders of nonredeemable receipts would be left with worthless pieces of paper. With the rise of banking, panics like these became known as a run on the bank. Until modern times when governments stopped backing their money with gold they found themselves in the same position when they tried to issue more currency than there was gold to back it. As citizens and foreigners began to lose faith in the currency they would begin converting their paper money to gold thereby reducing the government's gold holdings and people's faith in the currency.
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Two Definitions of Inflation
What I have described so far is the classic or historic definition of inflation. Now days when people, especially government and the media, speak of inflation they are usually referring to a rise in the price level as measured by a price index.
A price index is basically a collection of common goods and their prices. Looking at the same collection of goods and their prices in a later period (usually a month, a fiscal quarter or a year later) and comparing the new prices to the earlier prices we can see if, the average of the prices in the second period has increased over the average in the first period. If the average has increased we then say that inflation has occurred. The increase in the average may be due to an increase in the money supply or it may be due to an increase in the demand for or decrease in the supply of certain goods in the index. If it is the latter the cause is not an increase in the money supply but is instead due to prices in the market adjusting the new supply and demand situation which, if left to itself, the market will soon correct. The rise in prices could be caused by natural disasters such as the temporary shutting down of some of the oil refineries along the U.S. Gulf coast after they were damaged by Hurricane Katrina thereby temporarily reducing the supply of gasoline and heating oil. Or it could be the result of misguided government policies such as the current sharp increase in food and fuel prices resulting from the government's ethanol mandate. Sharp increases in certain products, especially critical ones, like food or fuel, will cause the index to rise but won't cause an increase in all prices UNLESS the government attempts to ease the pain of the adjustment by printing more money in a misguided attempt to make it easier for people to pay for these items. This will result in classical inflation.
Inflation is not good for an economy, period. However, before discussing the bad effects for all which follow from long term inflation, let's first discuss the benefits that can accrue to some as a result of inflation.
Some Groups Initially Benefit from Inflation
The first beneficiary is the national government. National governments can obtain funds in three ways - by raising taxes, by borrowing in financial markets or by simply printing money. Taxes, of course are unpopular and, in the United States, raising taxes requires approval by Congress. Borrowing adds to the government's interest expense. Printing money is the easiest and works best when it hasn't been done for a long time thereby catching people by surprise and giving the government a larger window from which to benefit from the inflation. Just like a counterfeiter, when a government prints money they are able to purchase more of the output of society without having to go to the trouble of collecting it in more legitimate ways. Prior to the administration of President Ronald Reagan, which got Congress to pass a law to prevent the practice, the Federal Government used to be able to benefit from inflation in two ways. First by simply having the new money at its disposal and second by its impact on the income tax. Prior to the Reagan Administration's reforms, tax brackets (see my hub entitled How Tax Cuts Work for an explanation of tax brackets and how they work) for income taxes remained static while inflation caused people's money incomes (money income refers to the number of dollars a person receives in income while real income refers to what those dollars will buy) to rise. This pushed them into higher tax brackets thereby forcing them to pay more taxes while their pre-tax spending power remained the same, which had the effect of raising taxes without appearing to do so. Thanks to the Reagan initiated reforms, income tax brackets are now indexed for inflation and the threshold income for each bracket is now pushed up by the same amount as inflation, thereby preventing a citizen's new, inflation caused, pay increases from pushing them into a higher income tax bracket.
People who borrow money are another group who benefit from inflation initially as they are able to repay their loans with cheaper money (for example, if wages are $5 per hour it would take 20 hours of work to repay the principal on a $100 loan. However, if inflation causes wages to rise by $2.50 per hour to $7.50 the $100 loan can be repaid with only thirteen and one third hours of work. Adjustable rate loans were introduced during the rampant inflation of the 1960s and 1970s as a means of leveling the playing field in this area by allowing lenders to recover inflation losses with interest rates that rose with inflation.
Professionals, like lawyers and doctors in private practice along with some small business owners who are able to raise their fees will can also benefit during the early stages of inflation by having their incomes increase with inflation while others on fixed incomes are stuck with the same wages thereby giving the first group a relative advantage over the second group in terms of being able to maintain their standard of living despite the inflation.
Renters with fixed leases benefit as their rents are fixed by the duration of the lease.
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Some of the Many Who Lose With the Start of Inflation
Savers are one group who lose from inflation from the start. Since one of the functions of money, besides rationing scarce goods, is as a store of value whereby people can set aside the fruits of their labor and enjoy them at a later time such as after retirement or as a cushion against future tragedy. However, inflation wipes out much of this value leaving people defenseless and dependent. Modern politicians on the left like this aspect of inflation because people then become dependent upon the government for survival and this dependency not only makes people more docile in accepting government dictates but also forces them to continue to elect the politicians who control the purse strings.
Lenders are another group that loses from inflation and lenders are not just big banks but the people who deposit their savings in these banks.
People on fixed incomes, which include many retired people on fixed pensions and workers with fixed wage contracts, also lose as their incomes are fixed while prices are rising.
Landlords, a group that includes many low and middle income people who have their savings tied up in a rental property or two, lose as the rental income is fixed by the lease while taxes, insurance, maintenance and other costs of ownership rise with inflation.
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Inflation Ultimately Undermines the Entire Society
In the long run everyone loses from inflation. Society is weakened as resources are directed away from productive use and into things like works of art whose value rises with inflation but doesn't serve to produce anything. Ironically, the aesthetic benefits of art are lost, because the skyrocketing money value of the work causes it to be locked away in vaults for safety thereby denying people the pleasure of viewing it. Savings, the foundation of economic growth is discouraged as people rush to buy now before prices rise even more (see my Hub entitled Hyperinflation in Post World War I Germany for more on this). Continued to an extreme, inflation weakens society to the point of collapse. The present Constitution and government structure of the United States is partly the result of the rampant inflation that resulted from the habit of the Continental Congress, operating under the Articles of Confederation (our first constitution), of continually printing money needed for its spending. That government was peacefully voted out of existence when leading citizens drafted the present Constitution and presented it to the people as an alternative. Other nations have not been so lucky. The rampant inflation in post war Germany helped pave the way for Adolph Hitler and his Nazi Party to win enough votes, not a majority but enough to give it more seats in the the Reichstag than any other party and thus able to form and lead a coalition government, and take control of the government with terrible results for the German people and the world which soon found itself in a world war.
Inflation is not good for people or for national economies, however, so long as governments are allowed to control a nation's currency, inflation will remain a fact of life. For this reason, many people prefer a return to a gold standard and allowing the market, not the government, to manage the nation's money supply.
Inflation in the News
- Malawi Inflation Slows to 7.3% as Food Costs Ease (Update1)Bloomberg6 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Malawi’s inflation rate fell to 7.3 percent in October as food prices eased, the National Statistics has said. Inflation slowed from 7.5 percent the month before, the Zomba-based agency said in a faxed statement.
- Hungary Cuts Key Rate to Three-Year Low on Recession, InflationBloomberg7 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest in more than three years today to speed the country’s recovery from its worst recession in 18 years, which helped slow inflation.
- Kenya May Cut Key Rate as Inflation Eases, Borrowing SlowsBloomberg10 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Kenya’s central bank may resume interest rate cuts tomorrow, reducing the benchmark rate by half a percentage point as inflation eases and lending growth slows, a survey showed.
- Hungary May Cut Key Rate to 3-Year Low on Recession, InflationBloomberg12 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s central bank will probably cut the benchmark interest rate to the lowest in more than three years today to speed the country’s recovery from its worst recession in 18 years, and after inflation eased.
- Hungary May Cut Key Rate to 3-Year Low on Recession, InflationBloomberg15 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s central bank will probably cut the benchmark interest rate to the lowest in more than three years today to speed the country’s recovery from its worst recession in 18 years, which helps keep inflation in check.
- Bahrain Inflation Slows to 1.5% in October Vs 1.97% in SeptemberBloomberg16 hours ago
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bahraini inflation slowed to 1.5 percent in October from 1.97 percent in the previous month as the price of food and beverages declined, the state statistics agency said on its Web site today.
- Putin Raises 2009 Inflation Forecast To 9.6% From 8%Nasdaq12 hours ago
MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the country would see inflation of around 9.6% in 2009, one of the lowest readings on record but a change from his earlier forecast of just over 8% on the year.
- Bonds or Gold Views differ on inflation hedgesMalaysiaNews.net17 hours ago
The record price of gold is flashing a giant warning that inflation is directly ahead. But which is the better hedge: bullion or inflation-linked bonds?
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Comments
You're welcome. I'm glad you liked it.
Thanks for explaining the affects that inflation has on the economy. The videos you selected were awesome. The 2nd video on Inflation lesson was pretty interesting explaining that it is not that gas got more expensive but that money is worth less. Interesting. Thank you Chuck for a great article.
Nice job. More detail than is needed to make the point. Nevertheless, interesting.
My compliments. Somewhat fits in with my hub on "Why Gold".
Bud Wood
Bud, thanks for visiting my Hub and for your comments.
I looked up your Hub on "Why Gold" and found it to be very interesting and informative. Here is a link to "Why Gold" http://hubpages.com/hub/Why-Gold for others who would like to read it.
I don't have a mind for economics. i am far too blonde . I feel I understand inflation much better now
thanks for the article
I think that we could see $2000 gold in the next couple years. The Chinese aren't going to keep on buying US debt, and the US will have to start printing more money to buy there own debt. I think they announced that they would buy 300 billion last month.
Toronto12 - I agree that gold will probably rise in coming years and would prefer that we move to a full gold standard which would be a good check on our politicians addiction to printing and spending money.
However, rather than printing money to pay off their debt the government could start by slashing spending, eliminating agencies (the IRS and Federal Reserve would be a good start), cut Congressional staff to point where the entire Congress and its staff fit into the U.S. Capitol Building and ditto for the White House staff. Get rid of the fleets of limos and jets used to chauffer the Congress and Executive branch officials all over. This would not only reduce expenses threreby increasing the amount of tax dollars left over to pay down the debt but would also free up a lot of expensive real estate and vehicles that could be sold to further reduce the debt. Businesses and households have to do this in order to balance their budgets and there is no reason why government should be any different.
Thanks again for your comment.
Chuck, I especially appreciated the way you explained that inflation is really just another form of taxation. "Like taxes in which the government takes money from its citizens to spend itself, inflating the money supply by printing more money has the same effect in that it enables the government to take purchasing power from the citizens and spend it as it wishes."
That is very well put, and I hope more people read it!
Aya Katz - Thank you for your kind words. I am glad I was able to get my ideas across.
I don't think we are in trouble with inflation as much as we are looking at deflation. The money supply is actuall shrinking, credit is drying up and there's less money to spend. I believe we are entering a serious deflationary period.
Sep 16, 2009
Working-At-Home - thanks for your comment.
I agree with you that present conditions appear to be more deflationary than inflationary. However, there is great potential for inflation at the same time.
The U.S. and other governments responded to the present crisis by pumping trillions into the banking system. At the moment the money is basically sitting in the banks and not being lent out. Banks world wide also cut way back on their lending and this caused the existing money supply to shrink which is deflationary.
The problem is that if Banks suddenly begin lending all of the money they are holding the result would be major inflation. Investors are aware of this risk which is why the prices of gold and silver are increasing as people are moving money into these metals as an inflation hedge.
For the moment we will just have to see how this situation plays out and hope that bank lending expands at a pace where the market can absorb it with new investment which will grow the economy and at the same time hope that governments begin pulling back on their spending and money creation.
See my Hub http://hubpages.com/hub/Role-of-Annuities-in-Retir for a longer discussion of this potential inflation problem and how it affects retirement planning.
Thanks again
Chuck
How do you think inflation will affect the low and middle classes? Also how do you think inflation will affect the unemployment rate?
Kapitall - Inflation usually has a strong effect on the low and middle classes because most individuals in these two groups work for wages. As such, they have little control over their earnings and generally find prices rising faster than their incomes.
Another way this group was harmed, was through the progressive income tax used by the Federal and many state governments. Most increases in pay that these people received were designed to offset the rising cost of goods and services so these pay raises, at best, left them the same economically. However, being progressive, income tax rates rise with each bracket and higher incomes put people in higher tax brackets. So many of these people found themselves losing a good chunk of any cost of living pay increase due to the pay increase pushing them into a higher tax bracket and a big part of the pay increase ending up going to pay higher taxes (reforms passed during the Regan Administration put an end to this by having tax brackets automatically adjust upward with inflation).
In the high inflation in the 1960s and 1970s in the United States many people in this group did benefit during the early stages of inflation due to the fact that they tended to have loans such as mortgages, car loans, and other types of bank loans with fixed interest rates. Those in this group benefited from the fact that while wages and overall prices were rising their interest rates and payments on their loans were fixed. They were thus able to pay back these loans with cheaper dollars.
The ones hurt the most were those, like retirees living on fixed pensions, Social Security (which had no COLA or cost of living adjustment in those days) and other fixed sources of income that did not adjust upward with inflation.
As to the effect of inflation on unemployment, there is a theory known as the Phillips Curve which claimed to find a strong correlation between increasing inflation and decreasing unemployment. Policy makers in that era relied on that theory and, when unemployment was rising, would engage in inflationary monetary policies in order to reduce unemployment.
However, this utility of the Phillips Curve began to break down in the 1970s as we began to encounter both inflation and unemployment rising. The economist Milton Friedman studied the Phillips Curve and discovered that the rising inflation sent a false signal to employers making them think that the economy was improving and that they could start hiring again. However, over time employers became wise to this causing policies based upon the Phillips Curve became less and less effective.
Inflation greatly affects a nation's economy. Inflation can also have devastating effects on a society's social structure. A case in point are the Tiv of norther Nigeria.
The British pacified the Tiv at the beginning of the 20th century. They replaced the brass rods that served as special purpose money with their British currency.
Among the Tiv, the acquisition and the type of things that could be traded using brass rods was regulated by the elders. The elders determined whether a couple was allowed to marry, what land to work, and what status and role to occupy in the group.
With the replacement of the brass rods by British currency, all of a sudden there was much more currency to go around and the elders lost control over many actions of young people. While this might not sound like a bad thing to our modern notion of individual rights, it devastated the Tiv. Their societal structure fell apart and has never been replaced with another stable structure.
In my opinion, it is societal transformations like this that make many regions unstable.
Please read my hub on Brass Rods as Special-Purpose Money in order to better understand the consequences of replacing brass rods with British currency: http://hubpages.com/hub/specialpurposemoney

















Trsmd says:
16 months ago
Thans for posting for my request with clear definition and details...well done..