The 2016 Presidential Election: Donald Trump, Wins Electoral College but is Behind by 2,000,000 Votes. Recount Possible.

THE IMPOSSIBLE HAPPENED! America convincingly elected Donald Trump, a man admittedly who does not have, nor care about, any experience in governing, A man who is provably a proud sexual predator, misogynist, racist, narcissistic (very possibly with personality disorder), Islamophobic, hate-monger. He embolden the ideas of the KKK and White Supremacists who will gleefully bash gays, LGBT, blacks, and Jews.

He brings with him an Alt-Right House and a Right-Leaning Senate. He will bring back an anti-human rights Supreme Court. Our economy and international relations will tank because of all the uncertainty about his ever changing positions and his unique ability to insult one-and-all.

This result is an unmitigated disaster of unprecedented proportions. Fear will certainly increase in America and I think violence. There will probably be a depopulation of America as religeous and racial minorities flee the country for safer territory; that will kill our economy. Hell, even I, who has devoted my whole life in serving America in one way or another, is so embarrassed at our collective stupidity that if I were single, I would consider moving myself to a country who cares about its citizens.

This is a first order Debacle!

• 10/30/16 - UPDATED STATES LEFT IN CONTENTION (Table 3)
• 10/30/16 - UPDATED CLINTON - TRUMP ELECTORAL VOTE COUNT (Table 10)
• 10/30/16 - FINAL ODDS ON WINNING (Table 16)

CURRENT STATE-BY-STATE ANALYSIS:

Apparently the Comey note to Congress has had its desired effect ... the race is perceptibly tightening for no good reason other than the astounding release of that memo that effectively said nothing; Clinton is not personally involved, just her server ... maybe.

Hillary Clinton - 239 electoral votes and Donald Trump - 164 ( # of State Polls - 51; ONLY 270 NEEDED TO WIN) for States where the candidates have at least a 5 point lead or better. Several States that were in Clinton's column have slipped below the 5 point threshold.

In terms of "Safe States", Clinton now needs 31 More safe electoral votes to be our next President.

On the other hand, the number enough "Safe States" that are in Trump's pocket still leaves him 103 electoral votes away from victory.

USING THE INFORMATION IN THE TABLE 3, ONE NOW COUNT the number of ways each candidate can win.

HILLARY CLINTON - Assuming nothing changes for states like Colorado, she has Clinched the presidency

Path 1 - None Needed

DONALD TRUMP

Path 1 - Trump Can't Win, there are no paths to victory left.

ONE THING IS FOR SURE, DONALD TRUMP IS TURNING POLITICS ON ITS HEAD. And this includes the Electoral Map. What use to be Red, may vote Blue. What use to be Purple will vote Blue. Some Blue States may end up being shaky.

Consider this:

• Colorado, a Purple State, is solidly with Clinton
• Virginia, a Purple State, is solidly with Clinton
• Arizona, a solidly Red State, is now undecided
• Georgia, a solidly Red State, is now undecided
• Florida, a Purple State, is leaning toward Clinton
• North Carolina, a Red turned Purple State, is leaning toward Clinton

Only time will tell if Trump makes a come back, but the current odds for him winning are 21%.

• Nov 8, 2016 - Voting Begins
• Nov 6, 2016 - FBI Director Comey tells Congress there was nothing in the emails to change his mind about not prosecution Clinton and won't reopen the investigation. In the meantime, the polls narrowed noticiable for Clinton and down-ballot Democrats. Comey's odd actions probably cost the Ds ANY chance of taking the House, slim as they were.
• Oct 27, 2016 - FBI Director Comey sent a note to Congress saying emails were found in the Anthony Weiner investigation MAY be related to Clinton's server and they MAY reopen her investigation IF they find anything. This questionable action began a new clamor from the alt-right against HRC.
• Oct 14, 2016 - The early Oct release of Donald Trump making sexually crass remarks that borders on, if not crosses over, the line of admitting to sexual assault on a crowded media bus; tied with his debate #2 denial that he has ever done what he said he has done; tied with 9 women so far coming forward to refute his denial has crushed his campaign.
• Sept 27, 2016 - In August, Clinton's lead increased significantly; only to give it all up with a bad September. How, the vast majority of pundits on the Right and the Left say she killed Trump in the first debate yesterday.
• Aug 9, 2016 - The debates are over and so are the conventions; the convention bounces have subsided; so where does that leave the race? Clinton pulling steadily head in national polls and leading in State polls.
• Mar 10, 2016 - A FIRST! The GOP had a civil debate. This was such a rare occurrence that the civility itself was the news and not the substance of the debate.
• Mar 7, 2016 - Michigan is Tomorrow. So far, generally speaking, Hillary has won the broader primary states and Bernie the more narrow caucus states with large white populations. Hillary has won IA, MA, NV, then the Southern tier VA, TN, SC, GA, AL, AR, LA, and TX. Bernie, on the other hand took, as expected, VT, NH, ME as well as MI, CO, OK, NE, and KS. THE GOP is much more diverse with Ted Cruz performing better than expected and Donald Trump doing worse. BTW, only Rubio and Kasich are left to round out the GOP field. To date, Trump has won - VT, NH, MA, VA, KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, AR, LA. Cruz has taken - ME, TX, AK, OK, KS, IA. Rubio, trailing far behind has tucked away MI and PR; Rubio is behind in FL. Kasich has had a couple of close seconds, but no cigar.
• Feb 9, 2016 - New Hampshire is next in with Trump easily, as predicted, beating the rest of the field. The surprise of the night was Gov. Kasich coming in a solid 2nd, beating the polls (although they showed him catching up). 4th place Bush survives to fight another day by tying Rubio's disappointing 3rd place finish. Clinton, as expected, not only lost the contest, buy she was not able to improve on the commanding lead Sanders had. If she had been able to do that, Clinton could have salvaged her pride (I still think the final outcome will be a solid Hillary win.)
• Feb 1, 2016 - First IOWA Votes In: Cruz surprises Trump by winning as does Rubio by virtually tying Trump for 2nd and 3rd. While Clinton probably had a technical win it was Sanders who won the night by essentially coming in a dead-heat with Clinton.
• Jan 28, 2016 - The Republicans held their last debate before the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump got pissy and boycotted the debate - boy what a pleasure to watch; they even talked about the issues a little - Winners: Rubio, Paul
• Dec 16, 2015 - The fourth Republican debate was held this evening; CNN did a great job with this one; moderator Wolf Blitzer (whom I met personally many years ago) kept everybody but Sen Ted Cruz in line. Winners: Trump, but less than before; Rubio; Cruz; Bush, finally; and, imo, Fiorino - Losers: Carson
• Nov 17, 2015 - Gov. Jindal drops out of the race for the GOP nomination
• Nov 14, 2015 - The Democratic debate held my attention, barely. Again, the moderators did a credible job of keeping Sanders, Clinton, and O'Malley on track. Even better, they talked about the issues and their solutions.
• Nov 11, 2015 - This Republican debate was a yawner; no new news. The moderators, for a change, took themselves out of the equation, although I saw the Wall Street Journal moderator get frustrated a couple of times with the candidates non-answers.
• Nov 2, 2015 - Larry Lessig, the one issue (campaign finance reform) Democratic contender, drops out of the race
• Oct 28, 2015 - DISASTER! CNBC set Debate moderation by newscasters back to Fox News standards ... or worse by its snarky, insulting style of questioning. Not since the "gotcha questions" from the initial Fox News debate have the moderators been so clearly after the money rather than the issues.
• Oct 23, 2015 - Senator Lincoln Chafee (D) gives up the ghost today
• Oct 21, 2015 - Vice President Joe Biden (D) decides not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination
• Oct 20, 2015 - There are three casualties to the 2016 presidential nomination season; Gov Rick Perry (R), Gov Scott Walker (R), and now Sen Jim Webb (D).
• Oct 13, 2015 - For a political wonk, the Democratic debate tonight was heads-and-shoulders better than any debate I have seen in the last 40 years! See below for a few comments.
• Sep 25, 2015 - Is Donald Trump (R?) starting on his slow slide to oblivion? His numbers have started declining
• Sep 21, 2015 - In a not unsurprising development, Republican Gov Scott Walker concedes defeat and quits the race
• Sep 20, 2015 - The steady downhill slide of Hillary Clinton seems to have come to a halt. The latest CNN national pool shows her increasing her lead over Bernie Sanders and VP Joe Biden is catching up to Bernie; and he isn't even running. As Sanders peeked?
• The Sep 16, 2015 debates looked much like the 1st with the exceptions that Carly Fiorina was added to Team 2 and Jim Gilmore was not invited
• The Aug 6, 2015 debate schedule: Bolded is who I thought did the best; underlined did the worst*
• --- Team 1: Bobby Jindal; Carly Fiorina; George Pataki; Jim Gilmore; Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry; Rick Santorum - 5 PM EST on Fox
• --- Team 2: Ben Carson; Chris Christie; Donald Trump; Jeb Bush; John Kasich; Marco Rubio; Mike Huckabee; Rand Paul; Scott Walker; Senator Ted Cruz - 9 PM on Fox
• * - from an unbiased view; a biased view would have a few more names underlined, but I actually liked what I heard from Fiorina and Kasich (which probably means they will lose)

WELL, HALF WAS DISAPPOINTING - I RATHER THOUGHT that the 6 PM debate was by-far the better of the two. In fact, in my opinion, it takes the place of what I said was the best debate in years about the 1st debate in the 1st Republican debate in August; last nights debate between Jindal, Pataki, Graham, and Santorum took the prize. It did have the benefit of only 4 people on stage, but it had the best moderators and the more issue oriented questions of the two debates.

Where CNN's format was what helped the so-called "JV" debate, the candidates themselves put the icing on the cake by mainly sticking to the issues and actually answering some of the questions asked. Not so the "varsity-turned-ad hominem" 2nd debate. In that debate, the CNN moderators went out of their way to get candidates to attack each other rather than talk about the issues; and most, but not all of the 11 people on stage took the bait.

I think the winners of the 1st debate were George Pataki and Lindsey Graham (who I expect to do much better in the SC polls now). Not losers were Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal. On the substance. All were issue oriented, accept when the CNN moderators tried to egg them into attacking each other, but it was Pataki and Graham who were the most pragmatic about what can be accomplished as President while Santorum and especially Jindal offered unrealistic, and in the case of Jindal, some times laughable proposals. Bottom line, the 1st debate of the night was well worth watching and should have been longer.

As to the 2nd debate, the main act as it were. Well, can you spell circus - it looks like CNN can because that is what they turned this debate into; I finally had to turn it off. From the get-go Hewitt began pitting one candidate against the other. Now this wouldn't have been so bad if he did it in such a way as to illicit responses about the issues. But no, it was more fun to get the candidates to attack each other personally (although Trump needed no help). Every once in a while candidates like John Kasich and Chris Christie tried to break through and talk about issues; but they were quickly pushed into the background. Carly Fiorina, when offered the chance, also stuck mainly to the issues.

But, once again, Trump led the way, to cover for his lack of knowledge about the issues, started by throwing gratuitous insults around like they were confetti. While the others held there own and returned effective fire, the clown of the circus was still Donald Trump. Nevertheless, this disappointing sideshow did produce a few standouts.

I think Carly Fiorina stood out the most, helped by being the only female of the bunch. But, it was mainly what she said (of which I mostly disagree, but that is not important here) that should start increasing her poll numbers again ... they had been flagging. John Kasich started the night trying to interject substance when he broke in and reminded the moderators the candidates were there to talk about issues, not each other. Besides Kasich and Fiorina, others who I think did better than last time were Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christi. The rest did OK although Ben Carson seemed very weak (unless he picked up after I quick watching).

Out of the whole debate, I think the top five were, in order, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.

PRETTY GOOD ACTUALLY. I WAS PREDICTING AN OBAMA RE-WIN by July 2016 (and was pretty sure of it by Apr 2014); and by about the margin he did win by. (I won't talk about the abysmal job I did for the 2014-Midterms, however.) The reason, I think, that I ended up being a contrarian to the pundits is that I analyzed state-level voting rather than the national polls. When you added up the likely electoral votes, President Obama was never in trouble.

THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES HAVE BEEN ENTERTAINING ... up until tonight's first Democratic debate. By comparison, it was a sleeping pill. Why, because they actually talked about real issues and not each other ... AMAZING. Even the moderators stuck to the issues and not personalities; it was a pleasure watching it and I know the viewer come away with a much clearer idea of the Democratic candidates positions on the important issues of the day. This is a major departure from the two Conservative debates.

Winners and Losers? Winners were Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, AND Martin O'Malley. Sadly, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee 1) were basically ignored by the moderators and 2) were distinctly unimpressive when they did have a chance to speak. I suspect these two men may be the next casualties of this nomination cycle.

Hillary Clinton: She made short shrift, with the help of a couple of other candidates, to the email crises. She was very articulate and had opinions on a variety of policies.

Bernie Sanders: Also very articulate but his scope was much more limited when compared to Clinton or O'Malley. You could easily tell how his socialist views colors his politics, BUT he did not come across as a socialist.

Martin O'Malley: He came prepared for bear and he got what he came for .. relevancy! Like the rest he talked about issues, and not the others. He did a great job of trying to define himself as being different from Clinton. But, like Sanders and unlike Clinton, he became repetitive on many of his talking points.

In my opinion Hillary Clinton came out on top while Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley tied for second. Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee tied for 6th (yes, I know there were only five on the stage, but they were that bad!)

TO START THIS 19 MONTH LONG HUB, IT WOULD BE, AGAIN, INTERESTING to know who you think will win each Party's presidential nomination. Let's start with the Democrats, it is easier. From where I sit, it's going to be Hillary Clinton; I just don't see another Obama on the horizon. (Then again, I didn't see one in 2008, either)

So, below is a poll with the list of Democratic candidates thought to be interested in the nomination, at the moment. I have been running this survey since the 2014 mid-term elections and it has 31 responses for the Democrats. I will keep that list and add any other names which might be of interest.

1. Hillary Clinton announced on Sunday, April 12, 2015
2. Bernie Sanders announced on April 26, 2015
3. Martin O'Malley, former MD Governor - May 30, 2015 - Feb 1, 2016
4. Lincoln Chafee, former Senator from RI - Jun 3, 2015 - Oct 23, 2015
5. Jim Webb, former VA Governor - Jul 3, 2015 - Oct 20, 2015
6. Larry Lessig, law professor - Sep 6, 2015 - Nov 2, 2015

LIKE IN 2012, THE REPUBLICAN FIELD IS WIDE OPEN WITH NO front-runners. In my opinion, Jeb Bush is the only Republican in the following list that has a chance of beating Hillary Clinton. But, for the same reason, President Obama handily won both his elections, the Republicans will probably not pick a moderate Republican, which even given the conservative credentials Bush has, I think he qualifies for.

If he does win, it will be because, like Mitt Romney, he ran far to the Right in order to win the nomination. And if that happens, I don't think any Republican will be able to beat Clinton.

1. Ted Cruz - Senator from TX - March 23, 2015 - May 3, 20106
2. Rand Paul - Senator from KY - March 31, 2015 - Feb 3, 2016
3. Marco Rubio - Senator from FL - April 13, 2015 - March 15, 2016
4. Dr. Ben Carson, Neurosurgeon - May 4, 2015 - Mar 2, 2016
5. Caroline Fiorina, Business Woman - May 4, 2015 - Feb 10, 2016
6. Mike Huckabee, former AR Governor, - May 5, 2015 - Feb 1, 2016
7. Rick Santorum, former Senator from PA - May 27, 2015 - Feb 3, 2016
8. George Pataki, former NY Governor - May 28, 2015 - Dec 29, 2015
9. Lindsey Graham, Senator from SC - June 1, 2015 - Dec 21, 2015
10. Rick Perry, former TX Governor - June 4, 2015 - Sept 11, 2015
11. Jeb Bush, former FL Governor - June 15, 2015 - Feb 20, 2016
12. Donald Trump, Business Man - June 16, 2015
13. Bobby Jindal, LA Governor - Jun 24, 2015 - Nov 17, 2015
14. Chris Christie, NJ Governor - Jun 30, 2015 - Feb 10, 2016
15. Scott Walker, WI Governor - Jul 13, 2015 - Sep 21, 2015
16. John Kasich, OH Governor - Jul 21, 2015 - May 4, 2016
17. Jim Gilmore, former VA Governor - Jul 30, 2015 - Feb 11, 2016

• Gov. Rick Perry (R) - Quit Sep 11, 2015
• Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Quit Sep 21, 2015
• Gov. Jim Webb (D) - Quit Oct 20, 2015
• Sen. Lincoln Chafee (D) - Quit Oct 23, 2015
• Prof. Larry Lessig (D) - Quit Nov 2, 2015
• Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) - Quit Nov 17, 2015
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) - Quit Dec 21, 2015
• Gov. George Pataki (R) - Quit Dec 29, 2015
• Gov. Huckabee (R) - Quit Feb 1, 2016
• Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) - Quit Feb 1, 2016
• Sen. Rand Paul (R) - Quit Feb 1, 2016
• Sen. Rick Santorum (R) - Quit Feb 3, 2016
• Gov. Chris Christi (R) - Quit Feb 10, 2016
• Carly Fiorina (R) - Quit Feb 10, 2016
• Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) - Quit Feb 11, 2016
• Gov. Jeb Bush (R) - Quit Feb 20, 2016
• Dr Ben Carson (R) - Quit Mar 2, 2016
• Sen Marco Rubio (R) - Quit Mar 15, 2016
• Sen Ted Cruz (R) - Quit May 3, 2016
• Gov John Kasich (R) - Quit May 4, 2016

BELOW ARE THE MOST RECENT INCARNATIONS OF DONALD TRUMP's position on various issues. I say "most recent" because many have changed drastically over the years. Most of what can be said about his positions must be derived from his infamous quotes as, at this point in time, Trump has made very few policy statements.

ABORTION: This is one which has come 180 degrees since 1999, but nevertheless is not as restrictive as some of his opponents.

1. 1999 - Favors the right to choose
2. 2015 - Opposes right to choose except for rape, incest, or mother's health

CIVIL RIGHTS: His most controversial statements are in this arena

1. 1999 - Tolerate diversity, prosecute hate crimes
2. 2011 - No gay marriage, no same-sex marriage benefits
3. 2015 - Let the states decide on gay marriage
4. Seems to have little tolerance for minorities
5. Dismissive and patronizing of women

CRIMINAL JUSTICE: Trump seems to be consistent on this issue

1. Approves of capital punishment because it deters crime
2. Thinks violent TV and video games lead kids astray
3. Make judges accountable for their sentences
4. Wants strong anti-crime policies

EDUCATION: Trump seems to be consistent on this issue as well

1. Common Core is a disaster
2. Wants to severely reduce, but not eliminate, the Department of Education
3. Favors school choice

DRUGS: The Donald as a libertarian streak here.

1. Legalize all drugs and tax them in order to fund drug education
2. Claims he doesn't drink (alcohol or coffee), smoke, or use drugs

ENERGY: Takes the generally conservative line and has been consistent over time

1. Climate change is a hoax.
2. No Cap-and-Tax: oil is this country's lifeblood

FOREIGN POLICY AND FREE-TRADE:

1. Opposes Iran nuclear deal
2. More sanctions on Iran and more support for Israel
3. China is the enemy and is very critical of US soft-ball approach
4. 2000 - Support Russia, but with strings attached
5. We are losing to Mexico, Japan, and China on trade - very critical on US ability to negotiate
6. Opposes longstanding assumption underlying U.S. foreign policy; which is supporting allies financially, diplomatically and militarily will promote a global system of free trade, democracy, and stability.
7. Use economic warfare to halt China's territorial moves in the South China Sea
8. Would consider letting South Korea and Japan acquire their own atomic arsenal.
9. Would boycott Saudi Arabian oil if the kingdom doesn't send ground troops to fight ISIS
10. Thinks NATO (and similar alliances) is an anachronism.
11. Would renegotiate bedrock free trade deals.

ECONOMY AND BUDGET:

1. Cut taxes on wealthy to 25% - Pense wants flat tax
2. Increase spending to Rebuild American infrastructure
3. Impose 35% tariff on Mexican goods
4. Impose 20% on all imported goods
5. 0% tax on corporations would be a good thing; but is wanting a 15% rate
6. 2008 - Embrace globalization and international markets
7. 2000 - Predicted the Great Recession of 2008
8. 1999 - President should be nation's trade representative
9. 1999 - A 14.35%, one time tax on wealth would eliminate the national debt
10. 1987 - Opposes rent controls
11. Repeal "Carried Interest" IRS tax loophole for hedge fund managers

SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE:

1. TRUMP does not want to change them where PENCE would like to Privatize it.

HILLARY CLINTON HAS STARTED STATING HER POSITION on a variety of issues; while, at the same time fending off a scandal or two such as e-mail. Many positions are standard fare for a moderate-progressive Democrat, but some are new on the scene.

POSITIONS:

HIGHER EDUCATION: In a nod to the fact that the cost and poor-state of American education is hurting our competitiveness and national security, Clinton wants to institute a sea change in funding higher education. The plan has several parts, depending on the learning institution:

1. Provide federal incentive grants to states to guarantee students will not have to take out a loan to afford tuition at four-year public colleges and universities (that, folks, is not tuition-free, as some say she is advocating). To qualify, students will have to work 10 hours a week where those those earnings, plus a "realistic" contribution from their families, will cover their tuition bill
2. Tuition at community colleges will be free to students or their families.
3. Broader use of Pell Grants
4. Cut interest rates on student loans with an "income-based" repayment option
5. COST: An average of $35 billion per year which will be paid for by limiting tax benefits for high-income Americans.

TAXES:

1. Increase the capital gains tax rate on the wealthy if they sell investments within less than six years of purchasing them. Close "loopholes and expenditures for the most fortunate."
2. Create a $1,500 tax credit for businesses that hire apprentices. Protect workers' collective bargaining rights.
3. Provide a tax credit to employers contributing to workers' profit-sharing plan.

JOBS:

1. Invest in $275 billion in infrastructure and scientific research.
2. Create a national infrastructure bank, initially funded by Congress, that would make loans for projects like improving highways, bridges and broadband service. The loans would be matched by private sector investments or local governments.
3. Raise the federal minimum wage to $12 an hour and support states and localities to increase their rate even higher.

FAMILY:

1. Supports paid family leave and sick leave.
2. Expand childcare access to help working parents, especially women. This could double growth.

HEALTH CARE:

1. Lower out-of-pocket costs by allowing families to see the doctor three times a year without having to meet their deductible first.
2. Create a $5,000 tax credit for families with high medical expenses.
3. Lower drug costs by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SAYS THAT THE BETTER A PRESIDENT IS DOING right before an election, the better the chance the candidate from his or her Party has of getting to the Oval Office. Let's consider the following indicators.

Overall National Job Approval: President Obama has had upside down approval ratings throughout most of his eight years in office. When Obama was inaugurated January 2009, his "job approval" was 65% favorable and 20% unfavorable; and then GOP propaganda against him began. It had the desired effect and by the end of Apr 2009 his job approval rating now equaled his unfavorable rating. Obama's ratings kept reversing periodically until May 2013 when it went negative and stayed there until Mar 2016; almost three years in length.

But, from then on until Sep 7, 2016 President Obama's has remained positive and is approving, currently standing at 50% For and 46% Against.

National Favorability Rating: President Obama's Favorability rating hit its peak in Feb 2009 at 68% Favorable and 21% Unfavorable. This rating also followed the same up and down movements until Nov 2015 when it stood at 47% to 47% and began to steadily improve.

President Obama's Favorability rating stands, on Sep 7, 2016, at 52% Approve and 44% Disapprove.

Health Care Approval Rating: This was what President Obama wanted to be the big achievement of his presidency; for various reasons, from self-inflicted wounds to one of the most well-funded, sustained propaganda campaigns to stop Obamacare from being a success - it hasn't worked out that way. After starting out with a 48% - 18% Approval rating, it quickly reversed course and fell to a low of 38% - 54% Unfavorable by Dec 2013. (It must be noted that about 1/2 of that 54% disapproval are liberals who think Obamacare didn't go far enough. Since then, while total opposed still exceeds total approve. the gap has closed significantly.

As of Sep 7, 2015, rating is 45% Approve and 49% Disapprove; quite a comeback given the headwinds Obamacare faces.

Economic Job Approval: Of the group, this is probably the most important since it combines how people feel about the President, but how well he has handled the economy. President Obama has been battling a heavy propaganda campaign, a completely dysfunctional Congress, and the slow recovery that would be expected under those conditions. As might be expected, Obama's approval rating in this category sunk to a low, only exceeded by President Bush; by Sept 2011, 34% Approve and 60% Disapprove. It took Obama until Mar 2015 to get into striking distance with a 45% to 49% negative rating. Obama finally goes positive in Jun 2016,

By Sep 7, 2016, Obama's economic approval rating improved to 48% Approve and 45% Disapprove.

President Obama's Approval among Independents: I would think this is as important as the Economic Job Approval rating because it is the Independents who will determine the winner. Since Independents historically lean to the Right in America, it is very important to be popular in the group. Obama spent most of his first term with about an 11-point negative gap. That quickly deteriorated to a 28-point negative gap by Nov 2013. This terrible position has slowly improved until today.

On Sep 7, 2016, President Obama has narrowed the gap to 5-points, 44% to 49%. This is all the more surprising in that most who identify as Independents actually lean to the Right.

In summary, it definitely is looking up for Hillary Clinton AND the Democrats in general, simply based on how well President Obama is doing, especially compared to his history of poor ratings.

Other interesting indicators are (7/20/16):

• Favorability Ratings:
• -- Democrats: 45% - 46% (Undecided - 9%) - Bad News for Republicans
• -- Republicans: 33% - 57% (Undecided - 10%) - More Bad News for Republicans
• -- Trump: 34% - 61% (Undecided - 5%)
• -- Clinton: 39% - 56% (Undecided - 7%)

It seems the only candidate, or Party, which the public likes is Senator Bernie Sanders, a feeling which I agree with, although I a Hillary fan. Further, and more important, Trump has a much worse unfavorable rating than Clinton, and worse for both, most everybody has made up their mind (once an personal opinion forms, it is hard to change and when it changes, it does so slowly).

FAST FORWARD::

• Favorability Ratings (17Oct 2016):
• -- Democrats: 43% - 47% (Undecided - 10%) - steady
• -- Republicans: 29% - 58% (Undecided - 13%) - worse
• -- Trump: 33% - 63% (Undecided - 4%) - worse
• -- Clinton: 43% - 53% (Undecided - 4%) - much better
• -- Obama Job Approval: Independents Nov 2015 36% -57%; Oct 7, 2016 44% - 51% - steady
• -- Obama Overall Favorable Rating: 53% Approve - 41% Disapprove - better
• NEW - 2016 Generic Congressional Vote: Ds Up by 5 points (RealClearPolitics) - Rs lost their advantage in Oct 2015 and have been steadily losing ground since then.

Of note is that the trend is disliking Trump more and not disliking Clinton any less with the caveat that these numbers are pretty solid in that most people have seemed to have made up their minds. Also trending against the Republicans is the Democratic Party getting less disliked while the GOP is getting more disliked; that may have a decided impact on the control of the House..

All-in-all, this is good news for the Democrats.

THE SERIES OF CHARTS TO FOLLOW are composites of information drawn from the Huffington Post Pollster and Real Clear Politics. For now, only two genre of polls will be considered, Obama's Job Approval ratings (including Obamacare) and Match-up polls between theoretical Democratic and Republican nominees. The latter set are included for obvious reasons while Obama's ratings provide an indication of the strength or weakness of the Democratic brand at the Presidential level; the assumption being that the more popular Obama is, especially against the hurricane force headwinds created by the opposition, the more chance the Democratic nominee will have of winning.

The charts present an exponential smoothing technique of 65% for the most recent months data and 35% for all of the rest. This method is used to give more weight to current thinking and less weight to historical data. As we get into 2016, the weighting will change to 75%/25% given people are more attuned to what is happening as the election gets nearer.

FROM SURVEYING THE VARIOUS EXIT POLL THROUGH THE MARCH 8 primaries, a few demographics emerged that were common across the states. Assuming the Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are their respective Party's nominees, these trends are to Trump's disadvantage.

Women: If any one thing that will sink Donald Trump, it is the female vote; even more than the minority vote, I suspect.

• In her battles with Bernie Sanders, women consistently supported Clinton over Sanders, the opposite was true for men, but not to the same degree.
• Women, however, far outnumbered men in the Democratic primaries.
• Overall Trump did terrible with Republican women; with a couple of exceptions, they heavily favored the other candidates
• The killer for Trump in this category is that in the Democratic primaries, women far outnumbered the men in voting. On the other hand, in the GOP it was the men who slightly outnumbered the women.
• Bottom line is if this trend holds, Clinton will pick up many more women's votes than Trump
• - Point Clinton

Education: There were distinct differences here as well.

• Clinton's general strength was with people who had no college degree or had post-graduate ones.
• Bernie, however, had a solid lock on voters with some college or bachelor degrees
• Trump's strong suit are voters with high school degrees or less. As you move up the education spectrum, Trump supporters decline.
• Interestingly, Clinton challenges Trump somewhat for those who have a high school degree or less while dominating with those who have more education
• Bad news for Trump is that the top three educational levels generally have a higher turn-out than those with the least education
• - Point Clinton

Income: Once again, there are some differences

• Clinton does well with the lowest income earners as well as the top earners, Bernie has the middle ground
• Trump does slightly better with those making less than $50k
• Those earning more than $50K vote much more frequently than those that don't
• Push

Race: Along with women, minorities will make the difference, depending on whether they vote or not. Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump when it comes to minorities while whites strongly favor Trump, but they are declining in magnitude - Point: Clinton

Age: Again, the trends are distinct. The older population will vote for Clinton, the younger group should favor Trump. In Clinton's favor is the older you are, the more likely it is you will vote. Point: Clinton

The one certainty from the exit polls are:

• If you are white, male, chances are you will vote for Trump
• If you are minority, female, chances are even higher you will vote for Clinton
• If you are a female, you are more likely to vote, and vote for Clinton

Let alone the deficit that Trump has with the initial electoral count, he also has a major uphill battle to win the popular vote.