Brexit: The nightmare begins for the winners

Now the EU referendum is over it is interesting to play the prophet and, as should be the case with all prophecies, record the results of opening the metaphoricallivers of the sacrificial sheep known to the Tories as the poor, disabled, unemployed and elderly to compare with what actually happens.

The Campaign

The campaign was largely smoke and mirrors, a ritual spat between massive egos operating way above their level of competence. These massive egos went to school together, are in the same political party and are personal friends. They are also distantly related, like all the British establishment. Both sides used the Project Fear tactics that succeeded in the 2014 referendum. Both sides lied. The Leave campaign played the inherent racism of the English: The same racism that derided tales of the Holocaust as “Jewish Sob Stories” and give rise to the 1918 Cardiff riots and the 1958 London race riots. The remain campaign played on economic risks trying to scare pensioners.

The reason Britain had an EU referendum
The reason Britain had an EU referendum

The Hangover

Now the winners, the Leave Tories, the Little Englanders who hate (poor) Immigrants and demonise and attack the (poor) Disabled and the (poor) unemployed and the (poor) pensioners and are indistinguishable from the Remain Tories and the majority of the (nominal) opposition, the Labour party are faced with reality and it seems they do not like it.

Leave campaign leaders woke up knowing they must fix the problems they created.

  1. Defuse the racist tensions they built up (without losing voters to the Labour party or UKIP).
  2. Resolve the constitutional crises they created in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
  3. Meditate on the narrowness of the Leave win in Wales and the fact that Leave voters there who feel they have been betrayed could either vote Labour or for an Independent Wales.
  4. Consider how much they want Gibraltar, which voted almost unanimously to remain and are now thinking hard about joining Spain, who will welcome them with open arms, perhaps even forgetting about Catalonia.
  5. Sort out the turmoil in the stock market and the departure for Dublin and Europe, of the Banks that underpinned Tory power in exchange for the Bankers Bonus Bailout they got from Labour.
  6. Negotiate the best possible exit from an EU that has bent over backward to accommodate the UK's demands and now, like someone who's abusive partner has said they want a divorce is seeking revenge.

Its now down to the lawyers.

Goodbye UK?

And, like UKIP, the party with the lowest average and maximum brainpower in Britain- with the possible exception of groups like Britain First - they have no plan. Perhaps they never expected to win. Now they must deliver and, if they care about it, deliver for the whole of the UK.

They do not care about Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Perhaps they do not even care if the United Kingdom survives. Being Tories, with the only sensitive spot being their wallet, they will, if the breakup of the UK cements their power and wealth descend on it with hammers, axes and dynamite.

Moving on

The one certain thing is that Britain will soon have a new unelected Prime Minister. The last unelected Prime Minister, Gordon Brown is generally considered to have been even more of a disaster than his predecessor and, having been one of a duo of useful idiots for the Tories during the 2014 Referendum, has lost all credibility in Scotland and a lot in England. So who might our next glorious supreme leader be?

The Contenders

Anyone who wants the job of Prime Minster at this time, or any other has to be insane, arrogant and have an inflated view of their abilities. Almost any Tory or Labour MP in other words.

Every MP wants to be Prime Minister but backbenchers are ruled out for lack of experience with power and there are only a few ministers could have a chance.

From the Leave campaign we have Boris Johnson, Britain's smoother version of Donald Trump without the sharp elbows, and Michael ( the Goldfish) Gove plus a few hopefuls who are doubtless brown nosing their way around the party.

From the Remain campaign we have George (Gideon) Osborne, a chancellor unable to count or listen to people who can and is frequently seen on TV in Parliament in a state suggesting total disconnect from Planet Earth. To be fair all Tory and Labour MPs are disconnected from reality but normally manage to fake being on the same planet as the people who elect them rather better. Osborne is probably fatally damaged by his connection to his relative David Cameron and cannot be considered a contended. Also Osborne has reduced the Nations indebtedness from £800 Billion to £1500 Billion pounds (He failed basic mathematics at school by the way). And that's it from Remain.

Boris (Bojo) Johnson is the front runner. He will be elected leader of the party and thus Prime Minister, because the party will think “Here's another fine mess you got us into: you fix it”.


The road ahead

Bojo will be trying to negotiate an exit from a hostile EU with the only mitigating factor being he is not David Cameron. He will also be trying to keep hold of Gibraltar, Scotland and Northern Ireland, David Cameron having come closer to achieving Irish unification in six months than the IRA managed in the 25 years leading up to the Good Friday Agreement. At best one has to admire Cameron's spectacular incompetence. And Bojo will have to deal with the economic turmoil that a British Exit will bring.

It is always possible that as Prime Minster Bojo will, having achieved his ambition and only having to worry about remaining Prime Minster, will be able to rebuild the unity of the United Kingdom, k, manage the financial storms, placate Scotland and Northern Ireland, and turn out to be a great Prime Minster. Just don't hold your breath.


Britain's new relationship with the EU
Britain's new relationship with the EU

The Likely future

The most likely outcome is that, Like Labour, the Tories will destroy themselves with infighting and render themselves irrelevant for at least a generation. Labour will continue to sit on their hands or vote with the Tories, the Liberals will continue to be irrelevant and the SNP the nearest thing to an opposition will work tirelessly for Scottish Independence while clawing whatever powers they can from the cold dead hands of the Westminster Parliament.

The EU will take Bojo and Britain for a ride and may work out a way Scotland and Northern Ireland can remain in the EU: this could be a major card in Britain's exit negotiations: a better deal in return for Scottish independence within the EU. Since EU membership has split the independence movement down the middle there will be another Scottish referendum on EU membership soemtime after Scotland becomes independent. The outcome cannot be predicted.

This explains why, like the Unionists after the 2014 NO vote, Bojo is not celebrating his victory but seems stunned by what he has got himself into.

Perhaps David Cameron is taking some comfort and even amusement from the fact that his old rival who bullied him at school has now a herculean set of problems.

As the old Chinese curse has it: we live in interesting times.


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Comments 9 comments

AlexK2009 profile image

AlexK2009 5 months ago from Edinburgh, Scotland Author

Hi Lawrence:

I think, in relation to their total budget €8Bn will be like my losing 20p and with the elimination of grants to the UK, finding 30p.

Yes, going it alone is feasible, but I think it will be far harder for the UK than for NZ and Austrailia.

The last referendum was about total independence. Former Prime minister Gordon Brown, who had neither authority or influence promised the "everything except..." that you mentioned and there was a fake VOW signed by all parties making various promises that no one has either disavowed or admitted to making. Since then all referendum promises have been broken.

From my point of view a British exist will lead to Scottish independence then we can start thinking about the EU. One problem at a time or we will never get anywhere. Multi tasking does not work too well in these circumstances.


lawrence01 profile image

lawrence01 5 months ago from Hamilton, New Zealand

Alex

As far as I'm aware the EU doesn't run surpluses so a drop in revenue is going to be a problem for them.

When Greece was needing the bailouts it was Germany (not the EU) that did so.

As for Scotland and the £78bn I really don't know except that North Sea oil might be part of that but as far as I'm aware Scotland already has separate education and law systems, I think what was proposed at the last referendum was 'everything except foriegn policy and Defence'.

My point was that 'going it alone' isn't something to be feared! New Zealand (and Australia) have been doing that for many years and have two healthy economies! We have 'free trade deals' under the WTO but that's all and we have our own say in how things are done.


AlexK2009 profile image

AlexK2009 5 months ago from Edinburgh, Scotland Author

I see your points lawrence01 though I do not agree.

I think this will lead to an Independent Scotland and soon after there will be a referendum or General election based on remaining in the EU or not. I cannot predict the outcome, if only because by then the EU will have changed in some way

The EU is far from perfect, and has probably expanded too fast. But being in the EU is better than being stuck with the Tories and an opposition that refuses to oppose.

I think €8Bn is loose change in the EU Budget and will be more than balanced by the grants England, Wales, and Scotland will not be getting.

I read that Scotland gives England £78BN and gets £34Bn back. These figures are from memory. Hence Scotland is likely to be able to survive whatever happens without England to hold it back.


lawrence01 profile image

lawrence01 5 months ago from Hamilton, New Zealand

Interesting hub and while I can see your point I disagree on much of what you say.

True the 'migration' card was played, and in London they voted to stay, but cities like Birmingham, Manchester, Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds all if whom have large ethnic minorities all voted 'leave' and apparently the demographic shows the voting wasn't along ethnic lines but age lines!

You'd be right about the 'Tory' vote being 'with the money' that tells me they were the ones wanting to 'remain' as that's what the money was saying but the rank and file defied their leaders and used their voice!

As for Britain's 'hardship' there will be some but not as much as the EU will have with an 8billion euro shortfall in funding with only one country now 'pulling it's weight'

The choice Scotland and Northern Ireland face is do they stay with a country who can afford to meet their bills or do they join an organization that can't afford to keep them bearing in mind the shortfall they're going to have!

I'm not resident in the UK (I'm a Brit living in New Zealand) but I would have voted 'leave'

Take a look at my hub that's been linked with yours.

Lawrence


AlexK2009 profile image

AlexK2009 5 months ago from Edinburgh, Scotland Author

Mio_cid: The EU will never let England Back. OK, Never say Never, but it is unlikely any such request will be approved for at least a generation. It would send the wrong signal to nations thinking they can leave then rejoin.

Les Trois Chenes:

I understand how you feel. Losing your nation like this means losing part of yourself. But the UK you left to live in France no longer exists. You cannot step into the same river twice. This is one reason I resist going back to London - For me Shepherds Bush Green still has camels from the circus grazing there each year.


Les Trois Chenes profile image

Les Trois Chenes 5 months ago from Videix, Limousin, South West France

A sad analysis but exactly what I think will happen. We are Brits living in France so this will affect us more than most. I doubt we'll ever be able to sell our house now for anything like enough to buy in the UK so we're effectively locked out of our home country. We will be looking into applying, against our wishes, for French Nationality.

On the other hand, we're no longer sure if we want to rush back to a UK run by Farage and Johnston.


mio cid profile image

mio cid 5 months ago from Uruguay

If the EU can survive this hurdle,continue to move forward and grow,England will be knocking on the door begging to go back in.


AlexK2009 profile image

AlexK2009 5 months ago from Edinburgh, Scotland Author

A sad result indeed. Thanks for your comment. The EU has been very tolerant of the UK and now has lost patience.


Anca-Elena profile image

Anca-Elena 5 months ago from London

Whether England leaves or not the European Union, everything will change for this country and not for better. No country, especially the most powerful countries of the European Union will forget this moment and how much cost them the fact that English acted like spoiled, irresponsible, selfish children. It is a sad result...

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