The 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries-Romney, Gingrich, Paul? - Poll Closed: Paul Wins Again! (5-15-2012) [115*26]

STARTING FRESH

[UPDATED PRIMARY RESULTS THROUGH 5/15/2012]


THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF MY HUB Who Will You Vote For in the 2012 Election - Obama, Gingrich, Romney, Paul?- A Poll (12-16-11) - Paul Running Away [66*]. However, it will give those who voted before a chance to vote again. I received 43 votes in the last poll, the results of which I present below, along with some current standing as we head into the primary season in a few days; it should be fun and full of surprises, I think.

As you will see, Ron Paul was the hands down favorite in Hubland with a statistically significantly lead over Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Now, most of the those votes presumably came from Florida given over half of the views came from this state with the rest scattered across the US and several world-wide. The next highest was Texas, a very distant second.

Here are the results from the Hub Poll:

WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE PRESIDENT? VOTE NOW!

WHO WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE AS THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES?

  • 0% NOT VOTING
  • 0% NOT SURE
  • 4% SOMEONE ELSE
  • 12% RICK SANTORUM
  • 0% JON HUNTSMAN
  • 4% MICHAEL BACHMANN
  • 4% MITT ROMNEY
  • 0% RICK PERRY
  • 8% NEWT GINGRICH
  • 31% BARACH OBAMA
  • 38% RON PAUL
26 people have voted in this poll.

This poll is now closed to voting.

Results of My HUB POLL Sept 2011 - Dec 2011

CANDIDATE
PERCENT OF VOTE
# of VOTES (43)
RON PAUL
37%
16
BARACH OBAMA
21%
9
NEWT GINGRICH
12%
5
HERMAN CAIN
12%
5
RICK PERRY
7%
3
MITT ROMNEY
5%
2
MICHELE BACHMANN
2%
1
OTHER
2%
1
UNDECIDED
2%
1
JON HUNTSMAN
0%
0
RICK SANTORUM
0%
0
NOT VOTING
0%
0

There is not a statistically significant difference between Paul and Obama, based on those 43 votes, however. It is also interesting to note that Cain, Obama, Perry, and Paul all received several votes early on in September and October. Perry quickly dropped out and Obama slowed way down. Gingrich came on strong until he caught up with both Paul and Cain. Then, both Cain and Gingrich just stopped in their tracks; Cain for obvious reasons, but I don't know why for Gingrich. Ron Paul just kept marching steadily along and Obama kept picking up a vote here and there. The only candidate who I think is the Republicans only hope in beating Obama, Jon Huntsman, hasn't seen the light of day in Hubland, or anywhere else for that matter, except New Hampshire,

Following now are some polls. First will be a series of local polls, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, followed by the latest national poll. As time goes on, I will add commentary and drop some completed polls out and add new ones in as well as keep track of the delegate counts. My bet is we have the first "brokered" convention in what, a half a century?

(By the way, how embarrassing is it when you are way ahead in the Virginia polling, as Gingrich is, and your organization is so poor, you can't muster the 10,000 votes needed to get on that states primary ballot!)

NATIONAL POLL

(click column header to sort results)
CANDIDATE  
5/15/2012  
4/1/2012 (Gallup)  
3/25/2012 (Gallup)  
3/21/2012 (Gallup)  
3/14/2012 (Gallup)  
3/10/2012 (ABC + Gallup)  
3/8/2012 (Rasmussen + Gallup)  
3/5/2012 (Gallup)  
2/29/2012 (Gallup)  
2/20/2012 (Quinnipiac)  
2/17/2012 (Gallup Tracking)  
2/12/2012 (Pew Research)  
2/9/2011 (Fox News)  
2/3/2012 (Gallup Tracking)  
1/29/2012 (Gallup)  
1/14/2012 (Fox News)  
1/9/2012 (Reuters)  
12/18/2011 (CNN)  
   
MITT ROMNEY - 1
<100%
43%
39%
38%
35%
35%
37%
34%
35%
26%
29%
28%
33%
35%
28%
40%
28%
28%
 
Newt Gingrich
QUIT
11%
14%
14%
15%
14%
15%
15%
15%
14%
13%
17%
22%
24%
27%
15%
18%
28%
 
Ron Paul
QUIT
10%
9%
9%
10%
11%
11%
12%
11%
11%
11%
12%
15%
12%
13%
14%
18%
14%
 
Rick Santorum
QUIT
25%
27%
27%
27%
26%
25%
24%
24%
35%
35%
30%
23%
16%
16%
13%
13%
4%
 
Michele Bachmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
8%
 
Rick Perry
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
6%
7%
7%
 
None of the Above
QUIT
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1%
4%
-
-
1%
6%
5%
 
Undecided - 2
> 0%
21%
11%
12%
13%
14%
12%
15%
15%
14%
12%
12%
4%
13%
16%
11%*
9%
4%
 
Jon Huntsmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT*
5%
2%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
* Huntsman quit 1/16/12, moved 6% to undecided
 
 
 

MY ESOTERIC'S GUESTIMATED FINAL DELEGATE COUNT

CANDIDATE (1144 needed)
AS OF 5/25/2012 (Acual Count)
AS OF 2/11/2012
AS OF 4/10/2012
CURRENT ACTUAL CNN COUNT
MITT ROMNEY -1
989
979 (43.5%)
1416
568 (55%)
Newt Gingrich
141
345 (15.3%)
257
137(13%)
Ron Paul
104
363 (16.1%)
173
71 (7%)
Rick Santorum
264
563 (25.1%)
327
261 (25%)
 
 
 
MITT ROMNEY IS REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
 
GENERAL ELECTION (269 needed)
 
OBAMA
REPUBLICAN
 
Estimated Total Electoral Votes
 
329
209
 
Fairly Certain Electoral Votes
 
264
123
 

ALABAMA PRIMARY - March 13 - 50 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/13/2012 Primary Results
3/11/2012 (Public Policy)
3/8/2012 (Rasmussen)
3/6/2012 (AL Board of Edu)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
29%
31%
28%
31%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 2
29%
30%
30%
21%
 
RON PAUL - 4
5%
7%
7%
7%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
35%
29%
29%
22%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
 
3%
6%
19%
 

ALASKA CAUCUS - March 6 - 27 DELEGATE

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Caucus Results
 
MITT ROMNEY
32%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
14%
 
RON PAUL
24%
 
RICK SANTORUM
29%
 

ARIZONA PRIMARY - Feb 28 - 29 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
2/28/2012 Primary Results
2/26/2012 (Public Policy + American Research)
2/16/2012 (Rasmussen)
2/1/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
47%
41%
39%
48%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
16%
14%
15%
24%
 
RON PAUL - 4
8%
10%
7%
6%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
27%
31%
31%
13%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
2%
4%
8%
9%
 

CALIFORNIA PRIMARY - June 5 - 172 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/2/2012 (SurveyUSA)
3/19/2012 (LA Times)
2/28/2012 (PPP)
2/18/2012 (Field Research)
2/9/2012 (SurveyUSA)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
43%
42%
28%
31%
33%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
12%
12%
17%
12%
17%
 
RON PAUL - 5
12%
10%
8%
16%
9%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
25%
23%
22%
25%
31%
 
Other/Undecided - 3
8%
13%
25%
16%
10%
 

COLORADO CACAUS - 36 DELEGATES

CANDIDATES
2/7/2012 Cacaus Results
2/4/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
35%
40%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
13%
18%
 
RON PAUL - 4
12%
12%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
40%
26%
 
Other/No Opinion
-
4%
 

CONNECTICUT PRIMARY - April 24 - 28 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/24/2012 Primary Results
3/19/2012 (Quinnipiac)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
67%
42%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
10%
13%
 
RON PAUL - 2
13%
9%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 4
7%
19%
 
Other/Undecided
 
17%
 

DELAWARE PRIMARY - April 24, 2012 - 17 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/24/2012 Primary Results
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
56%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 2
27%
 
RON PAUL - 3
11%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 4
6%
 

FLORIDA - 50 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
1/31/2012 Primary Results
1/30/2012 (sum of 3 polls)
1/26/2012 (Quinipiac University and Reuters)
1/22/2012 (Inside Advantage & Rassmussan)
1/16-17/2012 (Public Policy & CNN)
12/22/2011 (State of FL)
12/4/2011 (NBC)
 
Newt Gingrich - 2
32%
29%
31%
38%
23%
26%
42%
 
Mitt Romney - 1
46%
44%
40%
29%
42%
27%
23%
 
Ron Paul - 4
7%
10%
9%
10%
10%
5%
9%
 
Undecided
0%
5%
6%
11%
8%
31%
8%
 
Michele Backmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
4%
7%
 
Rick Perry
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
3%
4%
7%
 
Jon Hunstman
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
1%
3%
 
Rick Santorum - 3
13%
12%
13%
11%
14%
1%
2%
 
Buddy Roemer
-
-
 
-
1%
 
 
 
Other
2%
-
1%
1%
 
 
 
 

GEORGIA PRIMARY - March 6 - 76 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Primary Results
3/4/2012 (Insider+PPP)
3/1/2012 (Landmark)
2/26/2012 (SurveyUSA)
2/9/2012 - (Landmark Rosetta Stone)
2/2/2012 (SurveyUSA)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
26%
23%
22%
23%
16%
32%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 1
47%
47%
42%
39%
35%
45%
 
RON PAUL - 4
6%
7%
5%
9%
9%
8%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 3
20%
19%
16%
24%
26%
9%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
 
5%
15%
5%
16%
4%
 

HAWAII PRIMARY - March 13 - 20 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/13/2012 Primary Results
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
45%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
11%
 
RON PAUL - 3
18%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
25%
 

IDAHO CAUCUS - March 6 - 32 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 CAUCUS RESULTS
 
MITT ROMNEY
62%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
2%
 
RON PAUL
18%
 
RICK SANTORUM
18%
 

ILLINOIS PRIMARY - March 20 - 69 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/20/2012 Primary Results
3/18/2012 (PPP)
3/15/2012 (Rasussem + Fox)
3/9/2012 (Chicago Tribune)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
47%
45%
39%
35%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
8%
12%
14%
12%
 
RON PAUL - 5
9%
10%
8%
7%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
35%
30%
31%
31%
 
Other/Undecided - 3
 
3%
8%
15%
 

INDIANA PRIMARY - MAY 8, 2012 - 46 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
5/8/2012 PRIMARY RESULTS
 
MITT ROMNEY
65%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
8%
 
RON PAUL
16%
 
RICK SANTORUM
13%
 

IOWA - 28 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
1/3/2012 - CAUCUS
1/1/2012 (Public Opinion Polling)
12/27/2011 (CNN)
12/18/2011 (Public Policy Poll)
 
Ron Paul
21%
20%
22%
23%
 
Mitt Romney
25%
19%
25%
20%
 
Newt Gingrich
13%
14%
14%
14%
 
Rick Perry
10%
10%
11%
10%
 
Michele Bachmann
5%
8%
9%
10%
 
Rick Santorum
25%
18%
16%
10%
 
Undecided
0%
4%
2%
7%
 
Jon Hunstman
1%
4%
1%
4%
 
Other
0%
2%
0%
2%
 

KANSAS CAUCUSES - MAR 10, 2012 - 40 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/10/2012 CAUSUS RESULTS
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
21%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
14%
 
RON PAUL - 4
13%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
51%
 
Other/Undecided
 
 

LOUISIANNA PRIMARY - March 24 - 46 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/24/2012 PRIMARY RESULTS
3/21/2012 (Rasmussen)
3/10/2012 (GCR/WLL-TV)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
27%
31%
21%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
16%
16%
20%
 
RON PAUL - 4
6%
5%
6%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
49%
43%
25%
 
Other/Undecided
 
6%
28%
 

MAINE - 24 DELEGATES

 
2/11/2012 Cacaus Results
10/31/2012 (Pub;ic Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
38%
24%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
6%
18%
 
RON PAUL - 2
36%
5%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 3
18%
3%
 
Other/Undecided - 1
-
50%
 

MARYLAND PRIMARY - April 3 - 37 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/3/2012 Primary Results
3/28/2012 (Rassmusen)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
49%
45%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
11%
12%
 
RON PAUL - 4
9%
7%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
29%
28%
 
Other/Undecided
 
8%
 

MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY - March 6 - 41 DELEGATES

CANDIDTATE
3/6/2012 - PRIMARY RESULTS
2/18/2012 (Suffolk/Chnl 7 News)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
72%
64%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
5%
6%
 
RON PAUL - 3
10%
7%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
12%
16%
 
Other/Undecided
 
7%
 

MICHIGAN PRIMARY - Feb 28 - 30 DELEGATES

(click column header to sort results)
CANDIDATE  
2/28/2012 Primary Results  
2/26/2012 (Rasmussen)  
2/14/2012 (Rasmussen and Michaels)  
2/12/2012 (Public Policy)  
2/1/2012 (Rasmussen)  
1/25/2012 (Detoit Free Press)  
   
MITT ROMNEY - 1
41%
38%
30%
24%
38%
31%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
7%
10%
9%
11%
23%
26%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
38%
36%
40%
39%
14%
14%
 
RON PAUL - 3
12%
11%
9%
12%
17%
10%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
2%
6%
12%
14%
7%
19%
 

MINNESOTA CACAUS - 40 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
2/7/2012 Cacaus Results
2/4/2012 (Public Policy)
1/22/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 3
17%
27%
18%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
11%
22%
36%
 
Ron Paul - 2
27%
19%
13%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
45%
29%
17%
 
Other/Undecided -
-
3%
6%
 

MISSISSIPPI Primary - March 13 - 40 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/13/2012 Primary Results
3/11/2012 (Public Policy)
3/3/2012 (Rasmussen)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
31%
31%
35%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 2
31%
33%
27%
 
RON PAUL - 4
4%
7%
6%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
33%
27%
27%
 
Other/Udecided
-
2%
5%
 

MISSOURI PRIMARY - - 52 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
2//7/2012 Beauty Contest Results
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
25%
 
NEWT GINGRICH -
not on ballot
 
RON PAUL - 3
12%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
55%
 
Uncommitted - 4
4%
 

NEBRASKA PRIMARY - May 15, 2012 - 35 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
5/15/2012 PRIMARY RESULTS
3/25/2012 (PPP)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
71%
25%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
5%
16%
 
RON PAUL - 3
10%
9%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
14%
39%
 
Other/Unknown
 
11%
 

NEVADA CAUCUS POLLS - Feb 4 - 28 DELEGATES

(click column header to sort results)
CANDIDATE  
2/4/2012 Caucus  
2/2/2012 (Public Policy)  
1/31/2012 (LVR)  
12/23/2011 (Las Vegas Review)  
   
MITT ROMNEY - 1
50%
50%
45%
33%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 2
21%
25%
25%
30%
 
RON PAUL - 3
19%
15%
9%
13%
 
Jon Huntsman
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
3%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 4
10%
8%
11%
3%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
0%
2%
10%
11%
 
Rick Perry
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
3%
 
Michele Bachmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
5%
 

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY - 12 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
1/10/2012 Prmary
1/7/2012 (avg Suffolk and Public Opinion)
1/4/2012 (avg Suffolk and Washington)
12/27/2011 (CNN)
12/18/2011 (Public Opinion Polling)
 
Mitt Romney
40%
35%
40%
44%
35%
 
Ron Paul
23%
18%
21%
17%
19%
 
Newt Gingrich
10%
11%
8%
16%
17%
 
Jon Huntsman
17%
15%
7%
9%
13%
 
Michele Bachmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
3%
5%
 
Undecided
0%
6%
14%
4%
4%
 
Rick Santorum
9%
10%
9%
4%
3%
 
Rick Perry
1%
1%
<1%
2%
2%
 
Gary Johnson
0%
-
-
1%
1%
 
Buddy Roemer
0%
3%
1%
-
-
 

NEW JERSEY PRIMARY - June 5 - 30 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
2/27/2012 (Quinnipiac)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
38%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 5
9%
 
RON PAUL - 4
12%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
24%
 
Other/Undecided - 3
17%
 

NEW YORK PRIMARY - April 24, 2012 - 95 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/24/2012 Primary Results
2/29/2012 (Siena)
2/13/2012 (Quinnipiac)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
62%
38%
32%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
13%
13%
10%
 
RON PAUL - 2
16%
11%
14%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 4
9%
23%
20%
 
Other/Undecided
 
15%
24%
 

NORTH CAROLINA PRIMARY - May 8 -55 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/29/2012 (High Point)
3/11/2012 (Public Policy)
2/5/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
31%
31%
30%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 5
12%
24%
30%
 
RON PAUL - 4
15%
8%
11%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 3
25%
27%
20%
 
Other/Undecided - 2
27%
10%
9%
 

NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUS - March 6 - 28 DELEGATE

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Caucus
 
MITT ROMNEY
24%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
8%
 
RON PAUL
28%
 
RICK SANTORUM
40%
 

OHIO PRIMARY - March 6 - 66 DELEGATES

CANDIDATES
3/6/2012 Primary Results
2/29 - 3/4 Realclearpolitics average of polls
3/1/2012 (Rasmussen Reports)
2/26/2012 (Quinnipiac)
2/15/2012 (Rasmussen Reports)
2/12/2012 (Quinnipiac)
1/29/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
38%
34%
31%
29%
24%
29%
25%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
15%
15%
15%
17%
13%
20%
26%
 
RON PAUL - 4
9%
12%
11%
11%
10%
9%
11%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
37%
34%
33%
36%
42%
36%
22%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
 
5%
10%
6%
11%
6%
16%
 

OKLAHOMA Primary - March 6 - 43 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Primary
 
MITT ROMNEY
28%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
27%
 
RON PAUL
10%
 
RICK SANTORUM
34%
 

OREGON PRIMARY - MaY 15 - 28 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
5/15/2012 Primary Results
3/19/2012 (SurveyUSA)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
73%
38%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
6%
14%
 
RON PAUL - 3
9%
9%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
12%
31%
 
Other/Undecided
 
9%
 

PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY - April 14 - 72 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/24/2012 Primary Results
4/4/2012 (Public Policy)
4/1/2012 (Quinnipiac)
3/25/2012 (Franklin Marshall)
3/12/2012 (Quinnipiac + Public Policy)
2/20/2012 (Daily News)
2/6/2011 (Susquehanna Polling)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
58%
42%
35%
28%
24%
16%
29%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
10%
6%
7%
6%
11%
9%
13%
 
RON PAUL - 3
13%
9%
10%
9%
10%
7%
9%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
18%
37%
41%
30%
40%
45%
30%
 
Other/Undecided
 
6%
7%
27%
16%
23%
19%
 

RHODE ISLAND - April 24, 2012 - 17 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/24/2012 Primary Results
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
63%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
6%
 
RON PAUL - 2
24%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 3
6%
 

TEXAS PRIMARY - May 29 - 155 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/13/2012 (LPA + Rassusen)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 2
29%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 3
20%
 
RON PAUL - 5
8%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 1
33%
 
Other/Undecided - 4
10%
 

SOUTH CAROLINA - 25 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
1/21/2012 Primary Results
1/19/2012 (Clemson + Public Policy)
1/18/2012 (Politico + Public Policy)
1/17/2012 (CNN)
1/15/2012 (Monmouth University)
1/7/2012 (CNN + Public Opinion Polls)
1/5/2012 (CNN)
12/19/2011 (Clemson U)
 
Newt Gingrich - 1
40%
34%
32%
23%
22%
21%
18%
37%
 
Mitt Romney - 2
28%
28%
34%
33%
37%*
32%
37%
21%
 
Undecided/None
0%
11%
6%
9%
9%
8%
6%
17%
 
Ron Paul - 4
13%
14%
13%
13%
12%
10%
12%
9%
 
Michele Backmann
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
6%
 
Rick Perry
QUIT
QUIT
4%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
 
Jon Huntsman
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT
QUIT*
3%
1%
3%
 
Rick Santorum - 3
17%
13%
12%
16%
14%
19%
19%
2%
 
Buddy Roemer - 5
2%
1%
1%
-
-
1%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
* Moved Huntsman's 4% to Romney
 
 
 
 

TENNESSEE PRIMARY - March 6 - 58 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Primary Results
3/3/2012 (Rasumussen)
2/22/2012 (Tennessean)
 
Romney - 2
28%
30%
20%
 
Gingrich - 3
24%
18%
13%
 
Paul - 5
9%
8%
15%
 
Santorum - 1
37%
34%
38%
 
Other/Undecided - 4
 
10%
14%
 

VERMONT PRIMAR - March 6 - 17 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/6/2012 Primary Results
2/22/2012 (Castleton College)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
40%
34%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 5
8%
10%
 
RON PAUL - 4
25%
14%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
24%
27%
 
Other/Undecided - 3
 
15%
 

VIRGINIA PRIMARY - March 6 - 49 DELEGATES

CANDIDATES
3/6/2012 Caucus Results
3/2/2012 (NBC News)
 
MITT ROMNEY
60%
69%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
Not on Ballot
Not on Ballot
 
RON PAUL
40%
26%
 
RICK SANTORUM
Not on Ballot
Not on Ballot
 
Other/Undecided
 
5%
 

WASHINGTON CAUCUS - March 3 - 43 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/3/12 Caucus Results
3/1/2012 (Public Polling)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
38%
37%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
10%
13%
 
RON PAUL - 3
25%
16%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
24%
32%
 
Other/Undecided - 5
-
12%
 

WASHINGTON DC PRIMARY - April 3 - DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/3/2012 Primary Results
 
Mitt Romney - 1
70%
 
Newt Gingrich - 3
11%
 
Ron Paul - 2
12%
 
Rick Santorum - 4
7% (not on ballot)
 

WEST VIRGINIA - MAY 8, 2012 - 55 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
5/8/2012 PRIMARY RESULTS
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
70%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
6%
 
RON PAUL - 3
11%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
12%
 

WISCONSIN PRIMARY - April 3 - 42 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
4/3/2012 PRIMARY RESULTS
4/1/2012 (PPP + WeAskAmerica)
3/25-28/2012 (4 polls)
3/21/2012 (Rassmusen)
2/26/2012 (Public Policy)
 
MITT ROMNEY - 1
44%
41%
39%
46%
27%
 
NEWT GINGRICH - 4
6%
11%
5%
7%
10%
 
RON PAUL - 3
11%
13%
10%
8%
8%
 
RICK SANTORUM - 2
37%
34%
31%
33%
43%
 
Other/Undecided
 
1%
14%
6%
12%
 

WYOMING CAUCUS - March 2 - 29 DELEGATES

CANDIDATE
3/2/2012 Caucus Results
 
MITT ROMNEY
39%
 
NEWT GINGRICH
8%
 
RON PAUL
21%
 
RICK SANTORUM
32%
 
 
 
 

THOUGHTS

AS YOU CAN SEE, Ron Paul has timed things perfectly, whether intentionally or not. He is peaking days before the Iowa caucuses and is doing very well in New Hampshire. If he pulls it off in Iowa, that should give him a boost in New Hampshire which would probably secure him second place. There is a very large undecided in South Carolina that is up for grabs. In Florida, Paul isn't doing that well, but that is an old poll; in my poll, it would appear Florida Hubbers like him so there may be a surprise possible there; time will tell.

DECEMBER 31, 2011

I finally found some new numbers for Florida, what a drop for Newt Gingrich! Did Mitt Romney gain has he has elsewhere, not in my state, where in the same survey I found out that almost 60% of the people go to church either weekly or more than once a week and that conservatives outnumber moderates and liberals by almost 9 to 1; boy. Who gained? The undecided; in fact, undecided is in first place.

JANUARAY 4, 2012

Mitt Romney finally won in Iowa ... by a whopping 6 votes, I think it was. The real winner, of course, was Rick Santorum and the real loser was Newt Gingrich. The death knell was sounded for Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann (thank God!); I even here they are "reassessing their campaign". [Note - weeks later it was determined that Rick Santorum actually won Iowa, not Mitt Romney. - ME]

The way the vote broke, shows the Great Divide in the Conservative Party between the fiscal Conservatives, along with the few moderate Republicans that are left, and the social Conservatives. 40% of the Conservatives appear to be leaning toward social Conservatism as their primary motivator at the moment and went with Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann while 38% are more leaning toward wanting to beat Obama and fiscal Conservatism and voted for Romney or Gingrich. 21% are Libertarians or are Independent, pacifist kids who temporary joined the Republican party to vote, and voted for Paul. Only 1% got it right, in my humble opinion, and voted for Huntsman.

JANUARY 5, 2012

The polls are starting to show up for New Hampshire now and it doesn't look good for my Republican favorite, Jon Huntsman. While one earlier poll had him up to 13%, the two latest polls have him back to 7%; his only silver lining a the moment is that the Boston Globe endorsede him yesterday and the Undecided vote jumped big-time to 15%. Other than that, the expected is happening, Romney is falling a bit, Gingrich is falling a lot, Paul and Santorum are gaining some.

In South Carolina, on the other hand, Gingrich has crumbled with Romney picking up his numbers, which sort of surprised me. Not surprising is the big bump in Santorum's popularity; I am guessing that is where the undecided and Bachmann numbers went.

JANUARY 9, 2012 - The Day Before

It looks like Jon Huntsman may have gotten a boost from the latest debates, which is where the undecided may be going. He has bet the farm on doing well, meaning second place. Even third place would be OK, I believe, so long as second place is Ron Paul.

JANUARY 11, 2012 - The Day After

The Pundits say Romney have it almost wrapped up; I disagree. Even though Romney came off with a respectable 40% win, it was on the low end of his poll numbers and it was less than 50% in a state where he had his best chances. My belief is that if people like Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and, ugh, Newt Gingrich stay in the race, Romney will never take more than 50% of the vote in any primary and the decision will be made at the convention where only 30% of Republicans like Romney. Many exit poll watchers said that a lot of Romney voters did it with a heavy heart.

I watched the CNN survey of a focus group of undecided South Carolina Republican voters who had attitude meters in their hands to measure what they felt about each candidates speeches after the numbers came in; Romney did best, Huntsman next, and Paul worst. All three dipped negative, but Romney and Huntsman only briefly and barely. Ron Paul, as expected, went south on his foreign policy position; that is where Huntsman briefly went below 50% as well.

In my humble opinion, Huntsman gave a terrible after-vote speech and should have had a scripted one, like Romney did, prepared. Even so, he did the best at the polls, doubling his opinion poll ratings for New Hampshire and quadrupling everywhere else.

JANUARY 16, 2012

Jon Huntsman quit today, throwing his support behind Mitt Romney. Although I gave Huntsman's 6% in the latest National poll to Undecided; in reality, they belong to Romney, raising his percentage to 46%. Perry seems to be stuck at 6% as well; assuming Perry drops out also, then Santorum should get a nice bump as well, to second place at 19%.

The new Florida poll also shows Romney switching places with Gingrich after voters to time out to think about it.

JANUARY 18, 2012

The latest South Carolina poll doesn't take into account the startling news that Mitt Romney did NOT win the Iowa caucus; it looks like Rick Santorum did, but, because of lost ballots, no one will ever know for sure. Nevertheless, the poll does show some shifting as Saturday approaches - Gingrich is gaining and is in striking distance while Santorum is slipping. The rest are holding steady with Perry appearing to be a non-player.

JANUARY 19, 2012

Today, Rick Perry saw the light and called it quits while, surprising me, throwing his support behind Newt Gingrich rather than fellow evangelist, Rick Santorum. Further. a second poll came out today from Public Policy with half the sample size of the other poll from Politico.com, which has Newt Gingrich ahead!! Even when averaged together, you still get some interesting results, Newt and Mitt are neck-and-neck.

JANUARY 20, 2012

The tide has apparently turned against Mitt Romney and he faces the prospect of being 1 win and 2 losses if Newt Gingrich wins South Carolina as the two latest polls from January 19 suggest; quite a comeback for Gingrich.

JANUARY 21, 2012

Well, it wasn't neck-and-neck, it was a Gingrich blow-out with 40% of the primary vote! Mitt Romney trailed badly with 27%, followed by Santorum with 18%, and Paul with 13%. Newt Gingrich's win probably isn't a surprise, but the size certainly is; now you have one win each for Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney. I think it is wide-open.

JANUARY 22, 2012

Not surprisingly, Newt Gingrich has changed places with Mitt Romney in the Florida polls. Also surprisingly, and very pleasing, according to the exit polling from South Carolina, the debates played a significant role, as they should, in the outcome of that election; Mitt better sharpen up his game if he hopes to do well in Florida.

JANUARY 30, 2012

It looks like Mitt Romney will take Florida tomorrow, since it is a winner-take-all state and his poll numbers are growing while Newt's are falling. I don't think Newt Gingrich ever had a chance of winning the nomination, but there still is a chance he, along with Rick SantorumandRon Paul could deny Mitt Romney a clear win with a majority of delegates. I can run some numbers using CNN's interactive map and end up with a scenario or two where Mitt doesn't get a majority; in all of those, I gave Florida to Gingrich, however. If Florida going to Romney, it is going to be that much harder, when looking at just the winner take all states that should go for Romney plus a couple of proportional states that will heavily favor Mitt, I end up with him only needing 242 delegates to win. What do you think?

FEBRUARY 2, 2012

I just post polls from Michigan and Minnesota and while it was not surprising to find Mitt Romney ahead in Michigan, I was amazed to see GINGRICH so far ahead in Minnesota; very interesting. If that holds, you can't count Newt out yet.

FEBRUARY 4, 2012

The latest, 2/2/12, poll for Nevada was just posted and it contained a couple of interesting results. One was that Mitt Romney hit 50%, the first time, I believe, and Ron the other is Ron Paul's surge to third place. In spite of the polls, there is a real question on whether Mitt Romney's, even though taken completely out of context, recent gaffes, e.g. " ... not worried about the poor, ...", is going to hurt him, even with Mormon voters. The "poor" comment may catch him on both sides, to his Left, it would be the "not worried about" part that is onerous, while to those on the Right, as Gingrich and Santorum are already pouncing on, is the "... , they have a safety-net ..." part that doesn't sit well; the " ... not worried about the rich ..." probably gave the Right the willies, as well.

FEBRUARY 5, 2012

The Nevada results are in and the only surprise is how close Ron Paul came to tying Newt Gingrich, without even campaigning in the state; in fact, Paul handily won Nye county and squeak out a win in Esmeralda county while Gingrich barely won Mineral county; the rest went to Romney. I also posted what poll results I could find for the rest of February's contests in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and Missouri. As would be expected, Romney leads Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan as well as in Maine back in October. However, Ron Paul has been campaigning heavily in Maine and may win there while Santorum is actually ahead in Minnesota after Gingrich has faltered. There is no data from Missouri yet.

FEBRUARY 8, 2012

THE TABLES might be turning again! Last nights results were very surprising, to say the least. It wasn't surprising that Rick Santorum won Minnesota, it was that Mitt Romney and especially Newt Gingrich did so poorly. It wasn't surprising that Rick Santorum won Missouri, after all, Newt didn't bother to get on the ballot in that state either, but, it was the way he won it ,,, Santorum won EVERY county in Missouri, including Saint Louis. It was, however, extremely surprising that Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney in Colorado ,,, by 5%; that was not expected. For this to mean anything, though, Santorum's wins must translate into two things, 1) true national momentum among Republicans and Independents and 2) contributions. Time will tell.

FEBRUARY 11, 2012

It is amazing what a difference a week makes. The media is now making a huge deal out of Santorum's three state sweep, trying make it should today like it might be Romney's death knell.while just a week ago they were saying the lose of Missouri, a beauty contest, and Minnesota, where Santorum had been ahead for a long time. The only real surprise, vis-a-vis Mitt Romney, was Santorum's win in Colorado, nevertheless, those fickle media types decided to turn this rather nice, and needed, victory for Rick Santorum into a catastrophe for Mitt Romney.

The candidate who was really damaged by Santorum's victories is Newt Gingrich; Gingrich did terrible, coming in last in Minnesota and a distant third in Colorado. The results are telling in the latest polls I posted today, especially the one for Georgia, his home State. After Tuesday's results had a little time to sink in we find that, compared to the previous poll, 1) Gingrich lost 10 points, 2) Romney lost 16 points, 3) undecided gained 12 points, and 4) Rick Santorum gained a whopping 17 percentage points! Further, Gingrich ended up being a non-player in the just completed Maine caucuses, not even getting out of the single digits. FInally, Newt finished a distant third in today's CPAC straw poll with 15%, while Mitt and Rick received 38% and 31%, respectively. At the National level, none of the candidates appeared to change much except Santorum who appeared to picked up several percentage points from the undecided category.

FEBRUARY 14, 2012

Newt Gingrich appears to be fading fast and Rick Santorum is soaring; Mitt Romney keeps ploding along. There is a difference though; Santorum has four primary/caucus wins to support his standing whereas Gingrich only had one and a lot of bombbast. It is very surprising to me that Conservatives didn't immediately move toward Rick Santorum, a candidate with apparent, strong, and long standing Conservative credentials; the only reason I can think of is the thumping he took in his last Senate re-election bid. In any case, they finally found him and I think it will lead to a brokered convention.

New today is an update to the National Poll that shows Santorum ahead, but statistically tied with Romney, and a California survey that has Romney ahead with Santorum not too far behind. But, the big surprise, of course, is that Santorum has taken a meaningful lead in Romney's birth State, Michigan!

FEBRUARY 19, 2012

The Great Lull until the next round of caucuses and primaries kick off at the end of February. I just added a poll of Massachusetts where, as expected, Romney blows the field away, but of the remainder, Santorum is firmly in second and Ron Paul is nudging out Newt Gingrich. Also, Santorum has gotten within striking distance of Romney in that winner-take-all state, Arizona.

While I doubt that Ron Paul has any expectations of winning the nomination, my current estimation is that he will enter the convention with around 20% of the delegates tied to him; enough to wield a lot of power, I would think. While the other candidates may play very hardball with each other, I would advise they throw softballs at Ron. If I were a betting man, and I am, my bet would be that Paul would throw is support behind Mitt Romney in the end, or, a dark horse candidate that is Mitt Romneyesque (think Jon Huntsman); I can't see the Rick Santorum even wanting somebody with Ron Paul's left-leaning social and civil rights ideas being on his team, it wouldn't sit well with the base.

MARCH 1, 2012

The first Big One is about to happen this coming Tuesday, and should come close to determining if the Republicans will end up with a brokered convention or not. While we just finished three more, Michigan, Arizona, and Wyoming, the results were mixed even though Mitt Romney "won" all three. Instead, he squeaked by, especially in his birth-State, Michigan; Santorum darn near took that from him, but, in the end, had to settle for finishing only 3 points behind. Romney did a bit better in Wyoming, garnering 39% to Santorum's 32%; Ron Paul showed up with a respectable 21% and winning in several counties. Arizona has a large Mormon base, so Romney should have won handily there, and he did.

So, where is poor Newt? Finished, I think, not even getting out of single digits in two of the contests; he came in third in only one. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck for third place and a say at the convention. My guess is, only Paul will make it for he has a loyal 10% base, while Gingrich only has his rhetoric. If he doesn't win Georgia on Tuesday, he is certainly gone, and if he only wins Georgia on Tuesday and does very poorly everywhere else, he may not think he is gone, but I bet his money-people do.

March 4, 2012

March 3 was a good night for Presidential hopeful, Ron Paul, he pulled off a surprising second place, 25% of the vote, and gave RIck Santorum a bit of a slap-in-the-face, who got 24%. As you can see from the table, most of the undecided from the March 1 poll went to Paul, as did many Santorum votes. Further, Paul won 8 counties to Santorum's 4 and Romney's 22; of course, Gingrich won none.

Once again, Romney put another nail in coffin of his chances of actually winning the primaries by only getting 38% of the vote.

March 7, 2012

If there were winners, it would be Rick Santorum and Ron Paul; there were no losers. Mitt Romney didn't win because he didn't "knock it out of the park" and, if fact, just bare squeaked by in Ohio. Gingrich didn't win because he only won in his home state, Georgia and did very poorly most everywhere else. Ron Paul, on the other hand, can be seen as a winner because, not only did he not get kicked out of the race, he placed a respectable second or third in many states. Finally, Rick Santorum came out on top because he won where he had to, to stay credible, but almost beat Romney in Ohio.

Ron Paul came in second in Virginia, OK, only he and Romney were on the ballot, but boy what a second place ... he received 40% of the vote! That shows a significant divide between what people want, given the candidates are so opposite. In addition, ALASKA: even though he was third, he was only a little behind Santorum and way ahead of Gingrich; NORTH DAKOTA: Paul came in second, as far ahead of Santorum as he was behind him in Alaska; VERMONT: he also came in second here, slightly ahead of Santorum. Paul did very poorly, with respect to the others, in four states, Alaska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Tennessee; you might see a pattern here. Add to those, Arizona, Missouri, and Florida; he is weak in the South. His second, or near second place finishes, were in Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, New Hampshire, and Idaho (tied). It is easy to see why dropping out of race wouldn't make sense to Ron Paul.

With Super-Tuesday, Santorum cemented his place in the race. He has now won outright, Iowa, Colorado, Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Oklahoma. He placed second in Idaho (tied), Alaska (3%), Michigan (3%), Ohio (1%), and Wyoming; all across America's midsection.

Romney, on the other hand, has won in his home territory in the Northeast - Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachussets, as well as the Mormon influenced states of Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho. He won in Virginia, of course, but barely squeaked out a win in his birth state of Michigan, Alaska, and in Ohio, although he won handily in his only Southern victory, Florida, as well as Washington. His second place finishes were Iowa (virtually tied for 1st), Colorado, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Missouri (all distant). Is it a wonder why I think this is going to a brokered convention?

Gingrich? Gingrich needs to quit ... he is done.

March 12, 2012

Newt Gingrich is making my last statement seem a bit stupid, but, I am sticking by it. Yesterday's polling numbers in Alabama and Mississippi, but not nationally, show Gingrich beating Santorum. Now, I must clarify at this point, it is a three-way statistical tie between Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum in both states, but ahead he is and he even took the lead in Mississippi. What I am surprised about, however, after Tennessee, is the strong showing of Mitt Romney; if he does this well, even if he loses by a small amount, invigorates his campaign noticeably and will put a real dent in Santorum's effort. Finally, I kept wondering why Ron Paul is doing so poorly in the South until I finally remembered that his stand on the military and foreign intervention, regardless of how much his other policies my resonate, is a roadblock for him in the South.

March 14, 2012

Rick Santorum won again, a little unexpectedly, in Mississippi and Alabama with Mitt Romney won Hawaii and America Samoa. Santorum's win in Alabama was surprisingly strong, but the one in Mississippi was more like Romney's win Ohio --- with one big difference, Santorum wasn't expected to win Mississippi a few days before the primary. Also interesting is that in both Alabama and Mississippi, Romney and Gingrich tied for second! That is probably a first. One other result caught my attention, Romney didn't get a majority of votes in Hawaii and Ron Paul did pretty well with 18%; Santorum got 25%.

What does all of this mean? It bolsters my belief, which CNN does support (go figure), that this primary season will end up in a brokered convention. I simply don't think, right now, that Romney can get to 1144 delegates. These two wins for Rick Santorum absolutely cement him as the Conservative's choice over Romney; he beat Newt Gingrich on his home turf. Now, I would think, as you move further away from Georgia, Newt's portion of the results may go below Ron Paul's. So the question is, can Rick Santorum, with his new found wealth and popularity, steal enough delegates away from Mitt Romney in the remaining proportional states, to deny Romney a win.

March 22, 2012

It would appear that Newt Gingrich is not very good at math and still doesn't read the rulebook. If he is so interested in making this a brokered convention, then he needs to drop out of the race immediately! Why? Because of the way the rules work, every time Gingrich stops Santorum from getting a win over Mitt Romney by drawing votes away, he is throwing extra delegates to Romney. This is because in most proportional states, the winner gets the lions share of delegates, even if they win by only a few percentage points. For example, in Virginia Romney won 60% of the vote and Paul won 40%, yet Mitt picked up 43 delegates to Ron's 3; not very proportional, if you ask me.

The National Poll seems pretty much stuck in a rut. Mitt Romney has hung in there between 34% and 38% for March while Santorum has slowly increased for 24% to 27%. This isn't to say there hasn't been movement. Romney has increased roughly 5% from his Jan - Feb rankings of between 26% and 35% with one 40% outlier in January. On the other hand, Santorum shot up from 10% to 24% during the preceding two months (while Gingrich was crashing). The key to Santorum stopping Romney is California, the key to California is Texas. It will be interesting to see if he can do it.

March 23, 2012

I just updated the Wisconsin table and was surprised to find that Mitt Romney and RIck Santorum reversed positions from what it was a month ago; it wasn't a small change either. On February 26, the Public Policy Poll found that Santorum was ahead of Romney 27% to 43%. Today, Santorum received 33% of the sample and Romney got 46%; a large 180 degree flip-flop.

April 10, 2012

SANTORUM DROPS OUT - ROMNEY WINS NOMINATION!!

For various reasons, pressure from Republican bigwigs, lack of money, frustration that he can't QUITE catch on, and, maybe the most important of all, the health of his daughter, Rick Santorum called it quits today. In doing so, he hands the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney given the fact that a brokered convention is no longer possible. Even though there are several months left yet in the Republican primary season, it is now the beginning of the Presidential race between President Obama and Mitt Romney; a race which Romney is starting from a very poor position, given he is behind Obama in most polls and what people think about each candidate.

May 15, 2012:

Ron Paul finally called it quits, although I imagine he will continue to garner 10%
of the vote as he has done for the whole primary season. Newt Gingrich bowed out, thankfully, a couple of weeks ago. Even with Santorum and Gingrich gone, I find it very interesting that Mitt Romney still can't get more than 70% of the vote, 30% of the Republican faithfuls still reject him. What is important about the size of the number that still won't support him, is the percentage of those who feel this way who will stay away from the polls.

FOR THOSE READERS STILL FOLLOWING THIS HUB, I will be closing out the poll and my opinion writing in favor of starting a new hub focusing just on the Obama-Romney race. I will, however, keep up with the results of the primaries as they are completed.

PRIMARY VOTE COUNTDOWN - 1144 NEEDED TO WIN!

CANDIDATE
DELEGATES
DELEGATES LEFT TO WIN
JON HUNTSMAN
0
QUIT
Michelle Bachmann
0
QUIT
MITT ROMNEY
562
582
NEWT GINGRICH
137
1007
RICK PERRY
0
QUIT
RICK SANTORUM
241
903
RON PAUL
71
1073
Uncommitted
100
 
Total Delegates So Far
1111
 

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Comments 17 comments

crazyhorsesghost profile image

crazyhorsesghost 4 years ago from East Coast , United States

I myself would like to see someone else. Maybe its time for a real strong third party candidate that would campaign on America first. If we could elect a strong third party candidate it would really change America for the better.


GNelson profile image

GNelson 4 years ago from Florida

I'll vote for Obama again because the Republican candidates are totally unqualified. Most of them are playing follow the Tea Party ( Off the Cliff).


crazyhorsesghost profile image

crazyhorsesghost 4 years ago from East Coast , United States

I agree the Tea Party is not the answer. They have the same old rehashed ideals that are never going to address all the issues. They won't or don't even talk about the unpopular issues.


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Thanks for your thoughts, CrazyHorse and GNelson. I added a bit more material, btw.


Credence2 profile image

Credence2 4 years ago from Florida (Space Coast)

Hi, ME, Gingrich is losing ground because of onslaught of negative advertising by those who have greater resources (Romney) and the message is getting through to the voters. Paul has a big advantage because he has a dedicated cadre of followers. He has been a known quality with die-hard loyal followers. Jon Huntsmanhas the same liabilities Romney has, really, he is moderate when the people demand red meat. But Huntsman doesn't have the name recognition or resources that Romney has which is why Romney is ahead. For me as well if I had to live with a candidate other than Obama, Huntsman would be may choice. Thanks, Cred2


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Thanks Credence, yep, you are right as always.


marymary53 4 years ago

I am from Florida. Everyone I talk to said they are voting for Newt. My vote is for Newt. I don't care about his past. He is the best man for the job of President of the United States. He is the most experienced. My Florida vote is for Newt!


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

I appreciate your comment Mary, and your vote; it as been awhile since someone clicked on the vote button in my poll.

This will certainly prove interesting in Florida, given how high Gingrich was up in the polls and then Romney's resurgence which may be defeated by Newt's ability to rebound. Tie that with all of those early votes and you should have a rather exciting Tuesday.


Ask Queenmother profile image

Ask Queenmother 4 years ago from Atlanta, GA

Greetings My Esoteric,

The republicans are rebel rousing scoundrels! They are seeking to sell America to the highest bidder,rich corporations. Make no mistake if any of them become president we will still continue trickle down economy that created the unstable financial conditions that we now live. Civil war is coming fast and it does not matter who is president the question is whether America will be able to get it together and stand as one people to end blatant racism.

Check out my article on a real man's stand against their antics http://hubpages.com/politics/Bill-Maher-Love-him-o...


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Thank you for stopping by Queenmother, interesting take on our friends on the Right. As to your latter point, so long as Conservatives remain a political force, not much will change. Racism is endimic in human nature, but as history has shown time and again, unless a leader puts a name to it, like Hitler did to the Jews, it generally lies dormant.

In America, racism, of the most terrible kind, has been well established since the 1720s and truly substantive positive action to reverse it has occurred only twice in American history, once in 1863, with the Emancipation Proclamation and then again 100 years later, with the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964; and Conservatives fought long and hard to stop both. Not a very impressive record for Conservatives, or America, for that matter, is it.


wba108@yahoo.com profile image

wba108@yahoo.com 4 years ago from upstate, NY

An interested take, a brokered convention! I've heard its possible but not likely but who knows? I think your right , its going to be a long fought battle for the nomination. Unless something changes, Obama will likely reap the benefits of a divided and discontented republican field. This concerns me deeply because the current administrations seems to by going down a very destructive road!


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Thanks for your comments and insights, WBA. The field does seem to be ripping itself apart, largely, from where I sit, due to Gingrich's amazing broadsides and Romney's retaliations. However, when the dust settles, and the Republicans have a candidate, it comes down to if the deeply divided sides hate Obama enough to hold their noses, ignore their principles, and actually come out to vote for Obama's opponent.

It is my belief, that the Republican party is so internally polarized, such as the Santorum - Romney dichotomy, where one simply doesn't accept the others values.


Ralph Deeds profile image

Ralph Deeds 4 years ago

I'm betting on Romney as the GOP candidate and Obama in the election.


Mark Pitts profile image

Mark Pitts 4 years ago from United States

I will vote for who ever the conservative candidate is. For GNelson to claim that a Republican/conservative candidate is unqualified as a justification to vote for an individual that didn't even finish a term as a senator before being elected as president based on a cult of personality and media support s ironic. The policy decisions made and avoided by this administration are destroying this country. The USSR failed due to bankruptcy, and Europe is doing so now. Why do people still think that is the way to go?


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My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Current wisdom says you are right, Ralph, although Santorum is definitely going to give Romney a run for his money.

While you have a good point regarding qualifications, which is why I supported Clinton initially vice Obama, you couldn't be more wrong on the economy. If you read the series of hubs I am writing starting "The American Dream, A Conservative ...", you are going to find that after 170 years of trying, the Conservatives have a miserable economic record. By every measure you can name, the Conservative record is substantially worse than the Progressives (I use those terms for most of those 170 years, the Conservatives were Democrats and not Republicans); this includes Obama's three years when you look at it practically and not politically. His recovery is setting records in getting things back in shape, in spite of all the roadblocks Republicans are putting in front of him, compared to previous finacially-based downturns of this magnitude, the last being in 1937, which occurred because Roosevelt did what the Conservatives want Obama to do today; the one before that in 1929, and the 10 or so big ones in the 100 years prior to that! Maybe one had a faster recovery than we are seeing today!! Explain that if you would.


Mark Pitts profile image

Mark Pitts 4 years ago from United States

I was in the Navy, in my twenties when Carter was President and the economy, the military, and foreign relations went down the tubes. Then Reagan was elected, and all of these things turned around. I am humbly asking how was this true? Also, I the debt racked up in three years of Obama, how can that not matter? Bush was an idiot, but Obama called him unpatriotic for a fraction of that level of spending. Is it all rhetoric with no real meaning?


My Esoteric profile image

My Esoteric 4 years ago from Keystone Heights, FL Author

Mark, you are looking at way too short a time period, I looked at 200+ years of history, not 12 years. Also, remember, Carter was just 4 years sandwiched in between 16 years of Republican administration, the first Republican is who took us off the gold standard, by the way. Carter didn't have much time to do squat.

Finally, only the third and forth year of Reagan's administration was good. The first two years were a recession, and the last four was a steady decline leading to another one in 1991. Also, remember, Reagan was responsible for the largest deficit and debt in America's history up until President George W. Bush set the stage for the worst ever. Sorry, I don't consider Reagan's eight years particularly good, economically. (BTW, I voted for Nixon, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Reagan, before finally being forced to switch parties.)

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