Who will win the race this time in Tamilnadu elections?

The main contestants in Tamilnadu!

The main contestants!

The entire hullabaloo associated with TamilnaduState elections are about to cease by 14th May evening. The polling will take place on 16th May in one stretch. This particular election deferred with the past in many ways!

Illegal money amounting to one hundred crores have been seized in this election till date which is the record seizure compared to other state elections.

The election is fought by five fronts, 1.AIADMK led by J.Jayalalitha, the present government 2. DMK led by the most charismatic patriarch of DMK family, Sri Muthuvel Karunananidhi who has held the post of Chief Minister ship five times before who is assisted by Youth wing leader Sri M.K.Stalin who is never tired traveling the length and breadth of the state several times and a most eloquent speaker. Unfortunately, the ruling front has no other speaker equal to the calibre of Jayalalitha! Hence unlike other elections, she traveled widely this time since the stakes are high.

All contestants of main parties.

The other fronts and liquor policies!

The third front is a conglomeration of several parties who opposed the ruling front on several issues. Sri Vaiko is the co-ordinator, who refused to contest the election due to reasons known only to him. Sadly, he suffered much in politics, though he was a forceful speaker in the front. 2. Shri Vijayakant, the actor turned politician who had sizable followers earlier. He is being projected as Chief Minister Candidate if the third front wins the elections, which seems to be a remote chance. The Communist parties both CPI and CPM, though differ in their ideologies preferred this time a ‘clean front’ to stake their chances. Viduthalai Chiruttaigal headed by Tol Tirumavalavan, who works for the welfare of the Dalits, who were suppressed by almost all parties since Independence. They were under represented in many disciplines and jobs. This conglomeration has one advantage that they are all “Clean” and they were never involved in corruption cases so far.

Both the Dravidian parties have many cases in the courts of law under “Prevention of Corruption Act. Both have benefited by liquor lobby since they promoted government shops selling liquor cheap! In a way, both of them socialized the evil of drunkenness. Miserably, Tamilnadu boasts even teens consuming liquor in public since there is no prohibition in force. Many families lost their bread earners due to liquor menace. Many honest leaders have undertaken fast, to highlight the issue, to prevent this wholesale tragedy. Majority of revenue is earned by the government by auctioning liquor shops. Hence both the ruling and opposition parties are reluctant to bring prohibition since the revenue will be abruptly cut. Tamilnadu boasts about 6800 liquor shops run by the government with attached bars. Needless to say, that the residents nearby are troubled and tortured, by the indecent drunkards, who are a menace to the society. Sadly many liquor factories are run by bigwigs of both the ruling and opposition DMK.

The fortune and probabilities this time.

Another party who are vociferous about the liquor menace is contesting the elections all alone. In the above situations, there is every possibility that votes will be cut through and percentage of votes usually gathered by the Major DMK and AIADMK is likely to diminish in this elections.

Barathiya Janata Party which heads the Center has no presence in Tamilnadu elections. Hence this party may not gain any seats bearing one or two.

The devastating flood during October-November 2015 is a huge setback to the ruling front since their contribution during the floods is dismal. Only after a huge outcry in social platforms, the party woke up to the situation on ground. Hence it is a distant dream for the party to garner even traditional seats it held previously. The big advantage seems to go to DMK, which is the only alternative. But many people are disillusioned by the family politics of DMK. Many cases are pending against DMK family members in many courts in New Delhi. At any time, they may turn the fortune of many. Also, the “Disproportionate income case against CM and her associates are nearing conclusion and within a month the verdict may be pronounced. Hence many dangles are above the heads of many politicians in both the parties.

Since, no other front is capable of gaining much from the elections; the advantage goes in favor of DMK. Many pre-poll surveys points out to this outcome. But nothing is certain. By next week this time, the majority of results might be out and let us wait and see who is fortunate to lead the government this time? It is a great zig zaw puzzle!

Poll projection by some media house.

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