Will North Korea Attack South Korea or the U.S.?
History has shown that major wars begin with a single, small incident. WW1 did. The Iraq war did, as it was all based on imaginary WMD sites. One might say even Afghanistan did - originally we went after al-Qaeda in the hills.
Now there is the very BAD blood, simmering hate between North and South Korea. The 1950-53 Korean War ended in a stalemate, so to speak. It was unresolved but everyone was sick of war with WW2 having ended in 1945. The Chinese saved North Korea then by sending millions of soldiers to bolster the wiped out NK army. B-52 bombers conducted some of the first massive carpet bombing that was so common in the 1965-72 Vietnam War.
In 2010, NK fired artillery across the border at an island belong to SK. That was really the first blatant attack since 1953. With NK having a new, young leader, the recent ramping up of military war is part real and part bluster. NK would love for the US or SK to make the first move aggression wise, but neither will. The generals of the NK army are old enough to be the young leader's father, maybe grandfather. The young leader wants to prove himself not only to the West but internally to the NK Army. The generals of the NK Army are the ones with the grudge. They still recall the original war and simmer with a sort of revenge slash jealousy about how well SK has prospered.
War starts with human traits.
Since NK has the capability to produce 3-6 nukes per year and now has ICBMs to hit some American targets, any new war will be both nuclear and conventional. Let's not forget about its partner, Iran. NK could easily sell a few nukes to Iran. All Iran has to do is to mount them onto their missiles, which are all NK rocket designs. If NK can mount them, Iran is not far behind technology wise for they share information.
In any war, NK would lose, for sure, assuming the US has the will to use their massive firepower to defend SK. As for SK, much of the urban areas near the DMZ would probably be much like a Syrian-like landscape. Many would die especially if NK focuses on Seoul and places around it because it is so close and easy striking distance. Even if a single nuke hit Guam, Yokohama, it would be a real shock to America. For all we know, maybe Iran might be in on the offensive. Even their own conventional missiles can easily decimate the Saudi oil fields and the US 5th Fleet might find itself in real dangerous waters. Oil tankers could be easy targets in the Persian Gulf and sinking only a few would close it. World oil prices would soar.
What would China do? Russia? With NK's missiles on alert and the US B-2 bombers capable of delivering 16 nuclear bombs flying from the USA to SK only shows how as each side is capable of escalating tension.
Where there is tension, there are mistakes.
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