RBI GRADE B EXPECTED CUT-OFF : PHASE-I
Factors that can cause the Cut-off to go high are:
1. Expected increase in the number of applications as seen in other graduate level exams.
2. Comparatively easy question papers, especially English part.
3. Relaxation of Sectional timing requirements.
4. Better availability of information and material.
Factors which are going to have uncertain effects
1. Change from pen & paper format to computer based.
2. Removal of weightages of various sections.
There will be around 2000s shortlist this year with 98 seats. Last time more than 1500 candidates were shortlisted for Phase-II when there were 75 seats. My expectation is that cut-off would go high this time and will be around 115(+-5) with upward bias (subject to further concessions for category candidates). There is also a good case for normalisation as the exams were held on different dates. Which means that 115 in a low scoring shift can be as good as 120 in an easy one.
Its not easy to get 140+ in this exam. There wont be a lot of people with that high final score. 1000+ will be safe above the cut-off at 125+. Needless to say, they will include mostly UR n OBC folks. Rest will be left entrenched above the cut-off.
Explanations - Don't Fear the Worse
98 out of 100 people won't be able to score 50+ in gs, 25+ in qa and 45+ in reasoning. Even if an average bright guy scores 25 in Eng ( which is not so easy) the score comes out to be 145.
Moreover, most of these 98+ percentilers are not likely to be damn good at all 3 I.e. ga, qa n reasoning and chances are that they may lose same in 1 section that he gains in another except for gk wizards ones who don't lose time in attempting high.
Also, it is easy to attempt high in Reasoning and GA but difficult to expect the same level of accuracy due to confusing questions and grey areas like inference, assumption, methodology etc.
We can also use the recent trend in other exams for comarison. For SSC CGL Exam the number of candidates have increased exponentially in the last few years. The cut-offs have increased albeit marginally. Also, there are only countable number of candidates above 130 (out of 200) over the years. Yes, difficulty levels are different but so is the popularity.
What was your attempt?
Attempts - How much is too much
To sum up, people with 140+ attempts with 85% accuracy have a 50-50 chance. Higher accuracy or higher attempts will decide how safe your score is. It is as simple as that.
Cut off prediction is a job of 'barsati mendaks'. Nobody will be present to defend their views when cutoffs are actually released i.e. after interview phase. But to allay fears and satisfy curiosities, i amready to become a BM. Others also need to analyse with some degree of seriousness (and quantitative reasoning) before giving out a number, especially if your prediction has the potential to create panic and disillusion. My prediction has plenty of room to be challenged. This is the most suitable and narrow range I could come up with. It will be fun to argue about the expected cut-off for time pass.
By looking at the previous year's cut-offs. The difference in cut-offs among various categories will be as under.
OBC-NC : 10
SC : 15-20
ST : 15-20