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Calm Before A Storm? - Earthquake Weather Report for early 2014

Updated on February 11, 2014
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

All 6.4 or larger earthquakes for the period from 12/1/2013 through 2/7/2014.
All 6.4 or larger earthquakes for the period from 12/1/2013 through 2/7/2014. | Source
The earthquakes listed above by the GEOFON web site are the same as displayed on the map above it from the USGS (magnitudes do not match exactly however between the two institutions).
The earthquakes listed above by the GEOFON web site are the same as displayed on the map above it from the USGS (magnitudes do not match exactly however between the two institutions). | Source

Recent 5 month period a good example of high and low significant earthquake activity months

In the map above is shown all significant earthquakes in the 6.4 magnitude or greater range in the world for two months and one week, beginning December 1, 2013 (per the USGS web site). Normally there would be this many such quakes in just one month, so that what was seen during this time was less than half the usual number of earthquakes. If we look at just the months of December 2013 and January 2014, and earthquakes of at least 6.5, we are left with just two such quakes when normally one would see four times more (based on a normal average calculated from 1992 onwards).

During the past eight years (plus one month) there have been twelve months where such earthquakes have numbered no more than one such event per month (two of the twelve months had none). But having two of these type of months back to back happen even less frequently; there being three back-to-back months with one or none significant quakes.

Conversely, months where there have been seven or more earthquakes in a given month have happened 17 times during the same time period (ranging from 7 to 14 earthquakes and averaging 8.9 events per month). Back-to-back months with such large number of significant events occurred four times during the same period of time.

Interestingly, back-to-back months with 0-1 events, and 7 or more events of 6.5 or greater occurred nearly back-to-back of each other during a five month stretch from September 2013 through January 2014. This represents the only time during the period studied where these two extremes in earthquake frequency occurred so close together.

Source


With there being two significant quakes of 6.5 magnitude occurring during the first week of February 2014, things appear to be moving back to a more normal mode. In general February is usually a below average month though (except for the first week of the month). If we see at least two more such quakes during the rest of the month of February, that may spell that activity is going to pick up and surge again into the much larger than average range. March appears to have the potential to be at least larger than usual for producing such significant temblors.

Looking again back over the 97 month period of study, the only month that had at least 7 significant events occurring more than 3 times during that period was April (being the case 4 times). Two of those times occurred back-to-back with the month of March (also having 7 or more such events on 2 occasions, but also being the month with the largest one month total of 14 in March 2011). In summary, there were 2 months (April and September) that were responsible for 7 of the 17 monthly occurrences of 7 or more significant events falling within them.

Looking back during those same 97 months at the most frequent months with the fewest number of significant events we find that three months make up the bulk of the events. The months of May, June, and December had either 0 or 1 significant events fall within them 3 times each embodying 9 such incidences out of 12 total during the period studied. Of these three months, June was the only one that was involved more than once in a back-to-back series of such low months. One of those was a May-June coupling. December 2009 and June 2012, were the two months where there were no significant events occurring.

In review, the months that seem most destined for high or low activity (based on this limited study) are April for the most frequent months (although it just barely qualified 3 out of 4 times and averaged 7.25 such occurrences when the average for all months in this higher range was 8.9) and June for the least frequent months (averaging 0.67, with all months averaging 0.83 per month). Of the high yield months for significant events, March came up 2 times, but had the highest average of 11.5 quakes per month.

In other words, what we may be seeing unfold is a yo-yo effect where earthquakes are occurring in a hot and cold and hot again series of events. What was reasonably hot in September and October 2013, was average in November 2013, became exceptionally low in December 2013 and January 2014, may be average again in February 2014, and then jump back into the extremely high range for March and April 2014.

Forecast for the remainder of February and all of March 2014

There will not be any forecast for April 2014 in this hub, but I will be looking at the rest of February and the month of March 2014. Dates to watch--out of the total potential dates listed below--will be (on or near) February 25 (especially in China and/or Italy), March 1 (China), March 22 (New Zealand), March 25, March 26 (Turkey), and March 27 (China). Those dates and locations are highlighted in bold text and underlined below. Again, the earthquakes that are here considered significant and the ones that I am forecasting are in the 6.5 magnitude or greater range.

2014-02/21 2000 UT - 2014-02/26 0600 UT

2014-02/22 0700-2100 UT (peak): China, Italy, Ecuador, Greece, Algeria, Japan, Vanuatu, and/or New Zealand.

2014-02/25 0300 UT (peak): China, Italy, Japan, Sandwich Islands, Papua New Guinea, Java, Bali, Algeria, Kuril Islands, CA, and/or AK.
______________________________________

2014-02/27 0800 UT - 2014-02/28 2359 UT

2014-02/28 0300-0900 UT (peak): Turkey, Italy, Algeria, Martinique, Canada, China, Russia, and/or Chile.

2014-02/28 2100 UT (1800-2359 UT) (peak): China, Turkey, Algeria, Martinique, and/or Iran.
______________________________________

2014-03/01 0000 UT - 2014-03/02 2359 UT

2014-03/01 1200 UT (1100-1900 UT) (peak): China, Japan, Algeria, Iran, and/or Turkey.
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2014-03/04 0830 UT peak (±2hrs): Chile, Ecuador, China, Taiwan, Japan, Kamchatka, Kuril Islands, and/or Italy.
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2014-03/04 1730 - 2014/03/05 1200 UT (2014-03/05 0230 UT peak): Italy, Chile, Ecuador, China, Kamchatka, and/or Japan.
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2014-03/06 1710-1855 UT (1800 UT, peak): China, New Zealand, Italy, Guatemala, Greece, and/or Canada.
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2014-03/21 1630 UT - 2014-03/22 2230 UT (2014-03/22 0230 UT peak): New Zealand, Iran, Java, Greece, Tonga, ID, and/or AK.
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2014-03/23 0800 UT - 2014-03/26 0000 UT (2014-03/25 0230 UT, peak): Bulgaria, Tonga, Turkey, Chile, Iran, China, and/or HI.
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2014-03/26 0830 UT - 2014-03/28 0400 UT

2014-03/26 1430 UT (peak): Turkey, Bulgaria, Sandwich Islands, Japan, and/or CA.

2014-03/27 2030 UT (peak): China, Panama, Indonesia, Turkey and/or S. CA.

© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato

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  • Alastar Packer profile image

    Alastar Packer 3 years ago from North Carolina

    Close enough for the bulls eye in my opinion, Joseph. Well done. Be watching through the 28th. And thank you for the kind remark my friend.

  • retrojoe profile image
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    Joseph Ritrovato 3 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: There was a 6.5 magnitude earthquake near the Nicobar Islands of India on 3/21 at 1341 UTC, or less than 3 hours before one of my seismic windows was predicted to open (1630 UTC of the 21st) for quakes of at least that size. In retrospect I realize that I made a significant error and didn't give enough attention to a peak in aspects related to the important eclipse of 5/20/2012, the effect of which is still important as a factor in predicting current earthquakes. Aspects related to that eclipse peaked at 1555 UTC on the 21st and, because earthquakes tend to be triggered before a peak more often than after one, I should have had the start of the window at a few hours before that peak (or no later than 1300 UTC on the 21st).

    An even more significant peak, also related to that eclipse, occurs at 2315 UTC on 3/25. I have a gap between two large windows at just after this time (from 0000 UTC to 0830 UTC on the 26th). Interestingly there is another peak a few hours after this gap also, or at 1100 UTC on the 26th. In this instance, a quake is more likely to be triggered either just before or after the gap that I have indicated, but I also feel a bit uneasy that one could happen inside this gap as well. I am therefore eliminating this gap from my prediction and bridging the two large windows together to create one large one that extends from 0800 UTC on 3/23/14 to 0400 UTC on 3/28/14.

    Because of recent trends of multiple 6.2 to 6.7 magnitude earthquakes in the area, and also because it comes up astrologically, I am focusing on Chile (or possibly Peru) as a potential location for an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude (give or take around 0.7 in magnitude) during this current window. Another key potential zone for significant earthquakes (at least 6.5 magnitude) would be from Taiwan to Japan. California may also see increased activity during this time (however there it may be as low as 5.5 in magnitude).

    I wish to thank Alastar Packer at this point for his generous comments to this and related hubs of mine.

  • Alastar Packer profile image

    Alastar Packer 3 years ago from North Carolina

    Fascinating research as always, Joseph. Be watching those dates.