ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Earthquake Review-Forecast for August-September 2015

Updated on September 1, 2015
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

No 6.8 magnitude or larger earthquakes for August 2015

The only large earthquakes of note (6.4-6.6 magnitude) worldwide for August were in the Solomon Islands (east of Papua New Guinea).
The only large earthquakes of note (6.4-6.6 magnitude) worldwide for August were in the Solomon Islands (east of Papua New Guinea). | Source
Source

Something's Afoot (a lack of big earthquakes)

This time around, the monthly review and forecast report takes its lead story from an English lad named Jamie Gurney. His insights into geology and seismology caught my attention on a Facebook group called “Earthquake Reporting” ( https://www.facebook.com/groups/158001717702273/ ). I then began following him on his twitter page devoted to seismology ( https://twitter.com/UKEQ_Bulletin/favorites ) which will be a year old in mid September of 2015.

From that twitter page I read a few recent tweets by him devoted to an anomaly which we are presently in the midst of. Using a German site ( http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/list.php ) that records earthquake activity, he reported that there have been four gaps of at least 90 days since the start of 2014 (technically it started after a 7.5M earthquake on 17 November 2013), where there were no 7.0 magnitude or larger earthquakes occurring. That is just in 20 months time. If we look at the three years just before 2014 (beginning at the start of 2011), there was only one such gap during that time.

Since that German site tends to have estimates a tad smaller than those of the USGS in the U.S., I looked at the same periods at the USGS site using earthquakes of at least 7.1 magnitude and found the results to be the same. I then looked at the monthly average occurrences of such sized quakes for an 18 year period beginning in 1992, for a very active 4 year period beginning in 2010, and the current period beginning in the year 2014.

Based on the 18 year period the average comes out to 1.0185 such quakes per month. The monthly average for the 4 year period starting just after the 18 year period came out to 1.3125 (28.86% above average). For the 20 months beginning at the start of 2014, the average came out to 0.9 (11.64% below average).

Chart created by author using early version of MS Excel.
Chart created by author using early version of MS Excel.

20 months of extreme variability (Seismic Roller Coaster)

Another aspect to this peculiarity in activity is that, of the 18 quakes during that 20 month period (through the end of August 2015), 15 of those 18 quakes occurred during record bursts of seismic events in April 2014 and then the period that began with the Nepal disaster on April 25, 2015 and ended with the deep earthquake off the coast of Japan on May 30, 2015. There was a 7.8 magnitude quake on both of those last two dates but no earthquakes of 7.1 magnitude or larger has occurred for the 3 months following that last earthquake.

In other words, things have been blowing hot and cold during those recent 20 months, and with the last 3 months looking particularly inactive, it would seem that the occurrence of the larger earthquakes are likely to rise again in the near future. Coincidentally, the last 11 days of September and into October (particularly the 4th through the 7th), appear to indicate (based on my algorithm of angles between solar system objects that often parallel significant seismic events) that things will pick up during that period of time.


Smaller seismic events of note during August 2015:

There was a 4.0 magnitude earthquake in Piedmont, California on August 17 (located in the East Bay or part of the San Francisco Bay region). This earthquake was on the Hayward fault, as was another 4.0 magnitude event in Fremont, California, which occurred 27 days prior. A larger earthquake may be brewing for the near future. What I am expecting is a magnitude 5.0-5.9 earthquake, perhaps within the next few weeks or months, which could be a fore-shock to an earthquake approaching 7.0 in magnitude in the next few months to years.

A few days before this, on the 13th and 14th of August, there were two quakes of 4.0 and 4.2 in northern Oklahoma (near the Kansas border) and northern Nevada (near the Oregon border).

I have pointed out in the July-August Review-Forecast, that there has been a similar pattern of quakes of about their size (actually those were a bit stronger or in the 4.2-4.5 magnitude range) in these three areas within a few days of each other that occurred 3 months before and after the Nepal earthquake of April 25, 2015. There was also an uptick in worldwide seismic activity for earthquakes of at least 6.8 magnitude at each of the two times when these patterns emerged. The month of August 2015 did not have any earthquakes of at least 6.8 magnitude, but there were two of 6.6 magnitude (per the USGS) on the 10th and 15th of August (in the Solomon Islands, east of Papua New Guinea). If I have discovered a repeating pattern, then there may be at least one other earthquake, somewhere in the world, of at least the mid 7's in magnitude coming in the middle of November of 2015.


Chart created by author using an early version of MS Excel.
Chart created by author using an early version of MS Excel.

The Forecast for September 2015:

This time around, my algorithm came up with seismic windows which take up exactly 50% of the month of September 2015. Of these windows, there is a very large one that dominates the last 11 days of the month. Within that window are several peaks of note that may reflect the coming of a few significant events (earthquakes of at least 6.8 magnitude). One in particular, near the end of the month, on the 29th, is particularly strong and may even indicate an earthquake of at least 7.1 magnitude to come at that time. Here are the dates for the start and end of each window with the Greenwich Mean Time (GMT or Universal Time; UT) in decimal form (09/08.1= 2.4 hours past midnight of the 8th, GMT). The date ranges are then followed by potential epicenter locations (based on peaks in Eclipse Aspect Values for Eclipses that occurred within the past few years).

2015-09/01.0 – 09/03.9 Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, southern Chile, Mexico, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands, Nepal.

2015-09/08.1 – 09/08.7 same as above

2015-09/12.25 – 09/12.75 PNG, Solomon Islands, Iran, Kamchatka.

2015-09/20.0 – 10/01.0 same as above +Sumatra, Nepal, India, Iraq, Turkey, Iceland.


Peak times during that last window to watch:

2015-09/23 1245UT +-20hrs (33% chance of 6.8 magnitude or larger quake).

2015-09/27 0000UT +-20hrs (ditto)

2015-09/29 0100UT +-20hrs (50% chance of 6.8 magnitude or larger quake).


Chart created by author using an early version of MS Excel.
Chart created by author using an early version of MS Excel.

© 2015 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

Submit a Comment

No comments yet.

working

This website uses cookies

As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

Show Details
Necessary
HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
Features
Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
Marketing
Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
Statistics
Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)