ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Earthquake Review & Forecast for July-August 2015

Updated on August 2, 2015
Magnitude 6.3 or greater earthquakes for the month of July 2015.
Magnitude 6.3 or greater earthquakes for the month of July 2015. | Source
List of magnitude 6.3 or greater earthquakes worldwide during July 2015.
List of magnitude 6.3 or greater earthquakes worldwide during July 2015. | Source

Not a Statistically Significant Month, but There were Noteworthy and Anomalous Seismic Events

Last month's Earthquake Weather Report, which has just been renamed the Earthquake Review & Forecast, gave a forecast that zeroed in on the date July 18, 2015 at 0000UT (plus or minus 30 hours), with an estimated 32% chance of a 6.8 magnitude or higher earthquake to occur during that time. At 022734UT, or less than 2.5 hours past the zero hour, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck the Santa Cruz Islands (part of the Solomon Islands, east of Papua New Guinea). Eight days before that, there had been a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in the Solomon Islands that was also inside one of my seismic windows


The flip side of these “hits” were two back-to-back “misses” that happened on July 27, 2015 (Universal Time) in the middle of an 8 day gap between windows defined by Astro-aspect values. Both were 6.9 magnitude earthquakes, so I considered them significant or seismic events that were likely to have a connection with planetary positions in our solar system (based on my extensive research I have found that the larger an earthquake, especially those of at least 6.8 in magnitude, the more likely that there would be a connection to configurations of solar system bodies).


When the first one hit in Alaska's Aleutian Islands, my first impression was that it was a random event. When the second quake hit in Indonesia on the northwestern portion of New Guinea, about 17 hours later, I was not as sure. I have actually thought about raising the bar for what I consider significant seismic events from at least a magnitude 6.8 (usually 2 such quakes of at least that occur each month on average) to 7.1 magnitude (usually just 1 such quake of at least that strength happen per month on average). So, I at first thought that, because there are likely to be more random events near the 6.8 magnitude threshold than for much larger earthquakes, that the Alaska quake was random.


Two such quakes on the same day, many thousands of miles apart, does not look as random. Interestingly, I had just discovered a repeating pattern of earthquakes in the continental U.S. In three locations; in Oklahoma, as well as near the border of Nevada, Oregon, and California, and then also in the southern portion of California. Several 4.2 to 4.5 earthquakes in these three areas of the U.S. occurred within a few days beginning on the 20th day for the months of January and July, 2015.

4.2-4.5 magnitude quakes in the continental USA during 20 January thru 26 January 2015.
4.2-4.5 magnitude quakes in the continental USA during 20 January thru 26 January 2015. | Source
4.2-4.5 magnitude quakes in the continental USA during 20 July thru 27 July 2015.
4.2-4.5 magnitude quakes in the continental USA during 20 July thru 27 July 2015. | Source

Activity to Raise an Eyebrow over

Also noteworthy was the fact that within both flurries of activity, there were significant earthquakes worldwide. The only one to occur in January 2015 was on the 23rd of that month (a 6.8 magnitude event in the Vanuatu Islands region of the south Pacific). The two significant events of the 27th of July 2015 were within a few hours of two 4.5 magnitude events in northern Oklahoma and Nevada. Furthermore, 92 days after the first date and 93 days before the second date (January 23 and July 27), occurred the Nepal earthquake of 7.8 magnitude on April 25, 2015 (or at the midpoint between those dates).


All of this looked odd to me, unusual because I haven't been able to put my finger on just what was happening. In other words, is there a connection of some kind or is this all just some very odd coincidence.

Astro-aspect and Eclipse-aspect values with earthquakes of at least 6.5 magnitude and sunspot numbers.
Astro-aspect and Eclipse-aspect values with earthquakes of at least 6.5 magnitude and sunspot numbers. | Source

Not Super Active but July 2015 had Some Stories to Tell

Looking at the overall picture for just July 2015, things were about normal as far as earthquake frequency goes (even without the two 6.9 magnitude earthquakes of July 27th). But average is not a good bet for an astrological correlation to earthquakes. The greater the activity, the more likely astrology was playing a roll. This was true in April 2014 and May 2015, both record breaking months for seismic activity.


However, if one just looks at the ten day period of time from the 18th through the 27th of July 2015, things were 4.5 times more active than usual (as far as the frequency of significant events go). This to me spells out that August – usually an average month for significant seismic events -- will likely be a bigger month than usual; say at least 3 or 4 significant events rather than the more typical 2)..


Astro-aspect Values and Eclipse-aspect Values for the month of August 2015.
Astro-aspect Values and Eclipse-aspect Values for the month of August 2015. | Source

August 2015 Earthquake Forecast

The forecast for this month will first concentrate on just the most likely dates, giving percentage of probabilities for each, along with potential epicenter locations:


2015-08/08, 1200UT (±30 hrs), 33% chance: Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Chile, Iran, Central America.


2015-08/13, 0000UT (±30 hrs), 41% chance: Aleutian Islands, Kamchatka, Japan, Chile, Papua New Guinea (plus the Indonesia portion to the west).


2015-08/18, 0000UT (±12 hrs), 13% chance: Nepal, India, Iceland.


2015-08/22, 1800UT (±18 hrs), 25% chance: Papua New Guinea (plus the Indonesia portion to the west), Iran, Kamchatka.


Now for the overall outlook, with 21.25 potential dates/times out of 31 days or 68.55% of the month:


2015-08/01 0000UT – 08/02 0600UT, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Iran, S. Chile, Mexico, Nepal.


2015-08/03 1800UT – 08/09 1800UT: Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Chile, PNG, Solomon Islands, Central America, Colombia, Peru, USA, New Zealand, Nepal, Iran, Japan.


2015-08/11 0000UT – 08/19 1200UT: PNG, Nepal, Aleutian Islands, Iran, Mexico, Sumatra, India, Iraq, Iceland, New Zealand, S. Chile, Turkey, Central America, Colombia, Peru, Chile, USA, Japan.


2015-08/20 0600UT – 08/24 0600UT: PNG, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Chile, Iran, Central America, Colombia, Peru, USA, Japan, New Zealand, Nepal.


2015-08/29 1200UT – 08/30 0000UT: Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, S. Chile, Mexico, PNG, Solomon Islands, Nepal.


2015-08/31 0000UT – 09/01 0000UT: Sumatra, Nepal, India, PNG, Iceland, Iraq, Iran, Turkey.


Monthly tally of eEarthquakes of 6.4 magnitude or greater in 3 tiers with sunspot numbers.
Monthly tally of eEarthquakes of 6.4 magnitude or greater in 3 tiers with sunspot numbers. | Source

Comments

Submit a Comment

No comments yet.

working

This website uses cookies

As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

Show Details
Necessary
HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
Features
Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
Marketing
Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
Statistics
Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)