Earthquake Review & Forecast for July-August 2015
Not a Statistically Significant Month, but There were Noteworthy and Anomalous Seismic Events
Last month's Earthquake Weather Report, which has just been renamed the Earthquake Review & Forecast, gave a forecast that zeroed in on the date July 18, 2015 at 0000UT (plus or minus 30 hours), with an estimated 32% chance of a 6.8 magnitude or higher earthquake to occur during that time. At 022734UT, or less than 2.5 hours past the zero hour, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck the Santa Cruz Islands (part of the Solomon Islands, east of Papua New Guinea). Eight days before that, there had been a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in the Solomon Islands that was also inside one of my seismic windows
The flip side of these “hits” were two back-to-back “misses” that happened on July 27, 2015 (Universal Time) in the middle of an 8 day gap between windows defined by Astro-aspect values. Both were 6.9 magnitude earthquakes, so I considered them significant or seismic events that were likely to have a connection with planetary positions in our solar system (based on my extensive research I have found that the larger an earthquake, especially those of at least 6.8 in magnitude, the more likely that there would be a connection to configurations of solar system bodies).
When the first one hit in Alaska's Aleutian Islands, my first impression was that it was a random event. When the second quake hit in Indonesia on the northwestern portion of New Guinea, about 17 hours later, I was not as sure. I have actually thought about raising the bar for what I consider significant seismic events from at least a magnitude 6.8 (usually 2 such quakes of at least that occur each month on average) to 7.1 magnitude (usually just 1 such quake of at least that strength happen per month on average). So, I at first thought that, because there are likely to be more random events near the 6.8 magnitude threshold than for much larger earthquakes, that the Alaska quake was random.
Two such quakes on the same day, many thousands of miles apart, does not look as random. Interestingly, I had just discovered a repeating pattern of earthquakes in the continental U.S. In three locations; in Oklahoma, as well as near the border of Nevada, Oregon, and California, and then also in the southern portion of California. Several 4.2 to 4.5 earthquakes in these three areas of the U.S. occurred within a few days beginning on the 20th day for the months of January and July, 2015.
Activity to Raise an Eyebrow over
Also noteworthy was the fact that within both flurries of activity, there were significant earthquakes worldwide. The only one to occur in January 2015 was on the 23rd of that month (a 6.8 magnitude event in the Vanuatu Islands region of the south Pacific). The two significant events of the 27th of July 2015 were within a few hours of two 4.5 magnitude events in northern Oklahoma and Nevada. Furthermore, 92 days after the first date and 93 days before the second date (January 23 and July 27), occurred the Nepal earthquake of 7.8 magnitude on April 25, 2015 (or at the midpoint between those dates).
All of this looked odd to me, unusual because I haven't been able to put my finger on just what was happening. In other words, is there a connection of some kind or is this all just some very odd coincidence.
Not Super Active but July 2015 had Some Stories to Tell
Looking at the overall picture for just July 2015, things were about normal as far as earthquake frequency goes (even without the two 6.9 magnitude earthquakes of July 27th). But average is not a good bet for an astrological correlation to earthquakes. The greater the activity, the more likely astrology was playing a roll. This was true in April 2014 and May 2015, both record breaking months for seismic activity.
However, if one just looks at the ten day period of time from the 18th through the 27th of July 2015, things were 4.5 times more active than usual (as far as the frequency of significant events go). This to me spells out that August – usually an average month for significant seismic events -- will likely be a bigger month than usual; say at least 3 or 4 significant events rather than the more typical 2)..
August 2015 Earthquake Forecast
The forecast for this month will first concentrate on just the most likely dates, giving percentage of probabilities for each, along with potential epicenter locations:
2015-08/08, 1200UT (±30 hrs), 33% chance: Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Chile, Iran, Central America.
2015-08/13, 0000UT (±30 hrs), 41% chance: Aleutian Islands, Kamchatka, Japan, Chile, Papua New Guinea (plus the Indonesia portion to the west).
2015-08/18, 0000UT (±12 hrs), 13% chance: Nepal, India, Iceland.
2015-08/22, 1800UT (±18 hrs), 25% chance: Papua New Guinea (plus the Indonesia portion to the west), Iran, Kamchatka.
Now for the overall outlook, with 21.25 potential dates/times out of 31 days or 68.55% of the month:
2015-08/01 0000UT – 08/02 0600UT, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Iran, S. Chile, Mexico, Nepal.
2015-08/03 1800UT – 08/09 1800UT: Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Chile, PNG, Solomon Islands, Central America, Colombia, Peru, USA, New Zealand, Nepal, Iran, Japan.
2015-08/11 0000UT – 08/19 1200UT: PNG, Nepal, Aleutian Islands, Iran, Mexico, Sumatra, India, Iraq, Iceland, New Zealand, S. Chile, Turkey, Central America, Colombia, Peru, Chile, USA, Japan.
2015-08/20 0600UT – 08/24 0600UT: PNG, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Chile, Iran, Central America, Colombia, Peru, USA, Japan, New Zealand, Nepal.
2015-08/29 1200UT – 08/30 0000UT: Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, S. Chile, Mexico, PNG, Solomon Islands, Nepal.
2015-08/31 0000UT – 09/01 0000UT: Sumatra, Nepal, India, PNG, Iceland, Iraq, Iran, Turkey.