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Earthquake Review and Forecast for April 2016

Updated on April 1, 2016
Map and Data courtesy of IRIS and the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog.
Map and Data courtesy of IRIS and the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog.

March 2016, started off strong seismically, with a 7.8 magnitude earthquake, which occurred off the west coast of Sumatra on the 2nd of March. Fortunately, it was far enough out to sea to be harmless. That last word pretty much sums up the month, since nothing of any real significance happened after that. An average month usually has 4 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or larger. For this last month though, it was just the large 7.8 magnitude quake and nothing else.

If you look at the energy release from that one earthquake though, the month was above average. Around 5 times more energy was released from that quake than would have been released from a typical group of 4 earthquakes in the 6.5 and above range (used hypothetical temblors of 6.5, 6.6, 6.9, and 7.2 to determine the average energy released).

If, however, one looks at the number of earthquakes of 5.8 magnitude or larger, the month was well below average (the count coming out to 7 earthquakes when 21 is the monthly average).

Source of data= Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog.
Source of data= Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog.

What this means is that there is a dramatic slowdown in seismic activity playing out at this time. The big question is whether it signals a calm before a storm (as was the case before heightened activity in April 2014) or if it means a continuation of low seismic activity for months to come.

Astrologically, it would appear that the later scenario is likely, with exceptional days here and there. For the upcoming month of April 2016, the first third of the month appears as though earthquake activity will be average or better, but then after that, for the rest of April and during the months of May, June and most of July, indications are lacking for large scale activity of earthquakes of at least 6.5 magnitude. For earthquakes of magnitude 7.8 or larger, May and June are often the most active, but this year would appear to be different in that regard.

Potential dates for large earthquakes after that come during the last two days of July, 6 August at 0600UT (2 days prior to 3 days after), 18-19 September, the last two thirds of November, and 24 December at 2345UT (give or take a day) and around a week and one half before that (13-16 December).

So, as far as I can fathom, that is the earthquake forecast based on astrology for the rest of 2016. However, December 2016 kind of hints that things will again pick up as early as then or as late as April 2017.

If you have not guessed by now, I am planning to take a bit of a hiatus. Since it appears that a slowdown of seismic activity is on the horizon, I'll probably only be checking in every two months instead of each month during the next eight months. Unless of course I am very wrong about that and that the recent decrease in activity signals an upcoming increase.

Before closing let me quickly fill everyone in on how I did in my earlier forecast for the month of March 2016. I stated that, since February was a below average month, that it was a safer bet that activity should be higher in the next month. However, as I mentioned earlier in this article, March was a mixed bag.

For March, the seismic windows defined by Astro-aspect values occupied less than one third of the month. My forecast was not as detailed as usual and I gave just rough estimates of when the windows would begin and end. As a result of that, the 7.8Mw earthquake of the 2nd of March occurred less than an hour after the first window of 1.5 days ended (at the start of the month). If I had taken the time to give a more detailed forecast, that earthquake would have fallen about 2 hours before the end of the same window.

Since the results of my forecast hinges on whether the lone earthquake of at least 6.8Mw occurred within or outside of the earlier defined windows, and that determination is iffy, the results are pretty much inconclusive. It is a question mark to me as to whether that single quake was a random event, or related to astrological factors. And this result pretty much symbolizes that we are on the edge of a cliff right now and the near future will determine if we continue to see seismic activity fall, or catch a strong wind and be lifted higher. The next two months should decide.


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