Earthquake Weather Forecast for November 2015
Looking at the map above, things may appear to be fairly normal, until one digs a little deeper. If I were to have displayed earthquakes of from 6.0 magnitude and above, there would have been only 2 earthquakes showing; the disastrous and deadly Afghanistan/Pakistan earthquake of 7.5 magnitude which occurred on the 26th of the month, and a 7.1 magnitude event in Vanuatu on the 20th (based on Greenwich time). I decided to show earthquakes from 5.8 magnitude and above to make the map more interesting than it would have been otherwise.
Normally in a given month, on average, there would be 10 earthquakes of from 6.0 to 7.0 magnitude worldwide. As shown in the table below, there were no earthquakes within that range for October 2015. Interestingly, within the same range, the month before had twice as much as the average, and for all earthquakes from 5.8 magnitude and above, it was about 50% more active than usual. August, like October, was a below average month, having no earthquakes of 6.8 magnitude or larger and less than half the average for the 6.0 to 6.3 range.
What all of this means from my vantage point, is that activity seems to be slowing down. What I am expecting is that seismic activity will be below normal for more than a year (this is also based on the current solar cycle being on the decline) . One possible exception to this, based on astrological factors, would likely be a 45 day period beginning in late February. Of course I can see the potential prospects for earthquakes tied to astrological factors, but not so much that of a random nature. I estimate that, on average, about 2/3rds of earthquakes of 6.8 magnitude or larger, parallel astrological aspect groupings with ties to such events, with another 1/3rd representing random events. That is of course based on averages of what I have observed during my research as I reviewed earthquakes dating as far back as 100s of years ago, to the present time.
One thing I do know though, is that the lower the magnitude of a seismic event, the more likely it is to be random. I estimate that the ratio of random to astrologically related events for the 6.0 to 7.0 range to be about 1 to 1. If astrology wasn't representing things, there should have been around half the normal amount of earthquakes. Since there were none, it would seem that both random and astrologically related events were muted; and that may continue to be the case for some time.
However, I expect there to be exceptions, and November 12, centered on 3am, Greenwich Mean Time (give or take 2.5 days), may be just one of those exceptions. Besides that time, a good part of December 2015 may also be a bit active. I do not see any other astrological factors that call attention to seismic activity till late February of 2016. As a result of these circumstances, I may end up on hiatus till early February 2016, unless an idea for a hub or two comes to me between now and then.
Re-examining the month of October 2015: The earthquake in Vanuatu on the 20th would appear to be random and the event of the 26th related to astrological factors (about a 67% chance for both of those assessments). As a result, it was no surprise to me that the first one was outside of my seismic windows and the second one was inside one. In my forecasts at the start of October 2015, I gave a list of potential epicenter locations for the window of several days, that this temblor fell in the middle of. Afghanistan and Pakistan were both named in the middle of the list of 18 countries. Beginning with this hub, I plan to order the possible locations by most to least likely and assign a percentage of probability for each window period. I also will attempt to further refine the potential epicenter locations so that a list goes on for no more than 10 locals per window.
Here are the windows with possible epicenter locations of earthquakes of at least 6.75 magnitude for the month of November 2015 (the probabilities for each window are also given):
2015-11/01 @ 1800UT – 11/02 @ 0600UT (12hrs; 6.5%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Central Am.
2015-11/05 @ 1200UT – 11/06 @ 1200UT (24hrs; 10%): Same as above.
2015-11/09 @ 1500UT – 11/14 @ 1500UT (5 days; 75%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Chile, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Mexico, Papua, Solomon Islands.
2015-11/17 @ 1800UT – 11/18 @ 0600UT (12hrs; 6.5%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Colombia, Peru.
2015-11/23 @ 1200UT – 11/26 @ 1800UT (3.25 days; 50%): Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, Papua, Solomon Islands, Sumatra, Nepal, India.
Total days for windows= 10.25 or 34.17% of the month.
© 2015 Joseph Ritrovato