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Earthquake Weather Forecast for November 2015

Updated on November 1, 2015
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

5.8Mw or greater earthquakes throughout the world during the month of October 2015.
5.8Mw or greater earthquakes throughout the world during the month of October 2015. | Source
List of worldwide earthquakes of at least 6.75Mw for the month of October 2015.
List of worldwide earthquakes of at least 6.75Mw for the month of October 2015. | Source

Looking at the map above, things may appear to be fairly normal, until one digs a little deeper. If I were to have displayed earthquakes of from 6.0 magnitude and above, there would have been only 2 earthquakes showing; the disastrous and deadly Afghanistan/Pakistan earthquake of 7.5 magnitude which occurred on the 26th of the month, and a 7.1 magnitude event in Vanuatu on the 20th (based on Greenwich time). I decided to show earthquakes from 5.8 magnitude and above to make the map more interesting than it would have been otherwise.

Normally in a given month, on average, there would be 10 earthquakes of from 6.0 to 7.0 magnitude worldwide. As shown in the table below, there were no earthquakes within that range for October 2015. Interestingly, within the same range, the month before had twice as much as the average, and for all earthquakes from 5.8 magnitude and above, it was about 50% more active than usual. August, like October, was a below average month, having no earthquakes of 6.8 magnitude or larger and less than half the average for the 6.0 to 6.3 range.


What all of this means from my vantage point, is that activity seems to be slowing down. What I am expecting is that seismic activity will be below normal for more than a year (this is also based on the current solar cycle being on the decline) . One possible exception to this, based on astrological factors, would likely be a 45 day period beginning in late February. Of course I can see the potential prospects for earthquakes tied to astrological factors, but not so much that of a random nature. I estimate that, on average, about 2/3rds of earthquakes of 6.8 magnitude or larger, parallel astrological aspect groupings with ties to such events, with another 1/3rd representing random events. That is of course based on averages of what I have observed during my research as I reviewed earthquakes dating as far back as 100s of years ago, to the present time.

One thing I do know though, is that the lower the magnitude of a seismic event, the more likely it is to be random. I estimate that the ratio of random to astrologically related events for the 6.0 to 7.0 range to be about 1 to 1. If astrology wasn't representing things, there should have been around half the normal amount of earthquakes. Since there were none, it would seem that both random and astrologically related events were muted; and that may continue to be the case for some time.


However, I expect there to be exceptions, and November 12, centered on 3am, Greenwich Mean Time (give or take 2.5 days), may be just one of those exceptions. Besides that time, a good part of December 2015 may also be a bit active. I do not see any other astrological factors that call attention to seismic activity till late February of 2016. As a result of these circumstances, I may end up on hiatus till early February 2016, unless an idea for a hub or two comes to me between now and then.


Re-examining the month of October 2015: The earthquake in Vanuatu on the 20th would appear to be random and the event of the 26th related to astrological factors (about a 67% chance for both of those assessments). As a result, it was no surprise to me that the first one was outside of my seismic windows and the second one was inside one. In my forecasts at the start of October 2015, I gave a list of potential epicenter locations for the window of several days, that this temblor fell in the middle of. Afghanistan and Pakistan were both named in the middle of the list of 18 countries. Beginning with this hub, I plan to order the possible locations by most to least likely and assign a percentage of probability for each window period. I also will attempt to further refine the potential epicenter locations so that a list goes on for no more than 10 locals per window.

Here are the windows with possible epicenter locations of earthquakes of at least 6.75 magnitude for the month of November 2015 (the probabilities for each window are also given):

2015-11/01 @ 1800UT – 11/02 @ 0600UT (12hrs; 6.5%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Aleutian Islands, Mexico, Central Am.

2015-11/05 @ 1200UT – 11/06 @ 1200UT (24hrs; 10%): Same as above.

2015-11/09 @ 1500UT – 11/14 @ 1500UT (5 days; 75%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Chile, Kamchatka, Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Mexico, Papua, Solomon Islands.

2015-11/17 @ 1800UT – 11/18 @ 0600UT (12hrs; 6.5%): Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Colombia, Peru.

2015-11/23 @ 1200UT – 11/26 @ 1800UT (3.25 days; 50%): Aleutian Islands, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, Papua, Solomon Islands, Sumatra, Nepal, India.

Total days for windows= 10.25 or 34.17% of the month.

© 2015 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

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  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    2 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Thanks for your comment Buildreps,

    I have noticed recently that there has been a gradual slowing trend beginning two years ago, with alternating pockets of activity and inactivity. The bursts of activity followed the 8.2Mw Chile earthquake of 1 April 2014, lasting almost 3 weeks, and the other following the 7.8Mw Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015, lasting 5 weeks. The inactive periods, with no 7.1Mw or higher earthquakes lasted at least 3 months each time and occurred at four different times during that period. The net result of all these periods of things blowing hot and cold seismically, is that the monthly average was just that, average. However, without the couple of bursts of activity it would have been significantly below average. After the last 8.3Mw earthquake in Chile on 16 September 2015, there was no flurry of significant seismic activity to follow. This may be a clue that for most of the next year, activity will be mainly on the down side.

    Thanks again Buildreps, and hope we can find more common ground in the year to come.

  • Buildreps profile image

    Buildreps 

    2 years ago from Europe

    Hi Retrojoe, I can agree with you that the coming year might be relative calm, since we have seen two serious earthquakes on the opposite sides of the earth: Chile and Pakistan. This released most of the stress in the crust. Thanks, and keep doing the good work!

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