ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel
  • »
  • Education and Science»
  • Geography, Nature & Weather

Earthquake Weather Report for August 2014

Updated on July 18, 2014
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Source
Source

Technically, when looking at world-wide seismic events, June was an average month. Anywhere from one to three such temblors would be considered average, however, it would have been average with just the two 6.9 magnitude earthquakes. The third earthquake of 7.9 magnitude which occurred in Alaska's Aleutian Islands is one of a size that occurs only once every 6 months. A more typical monthly breakdown would be one quake of 6.8 and another of 7.1, but with the extra 7.9 magnitude event, the energy released was 12.4 times more. Of the seismic energy released by the three actual significant events, the 7.9 magnitude Alaskan earthquake released over 90% of the combined total energy of all three quakes. That event was the only one inside my windows as defined by astro-aspect values. In other words, if one just counts the number of earthquakes that fell inside (1) or outside (2) of my windows, my performance was no better than average (trending below that), but if one looks at the breakdown of the total energy released, my outcome was much, much better.

However, the first of the earthquakes, a 6.9 magnitude event, occurred just 41 minutes before the opening of a window of a few days in length. The 7.9 magnitude event then occurred 53 minutes after the same window opened. My estimations of when a window opens and closes is often inexact so that, when I looked more carefully at the data, it was discovered that the first 6.9 magnitude event actually fell just 11 minutes outside the window. If I had then also included an extra 1.5 hours as a buffer (taking into account a margin of error), which I had forgotten to do, that quake would have occurred 1h19m inside the window.

Actually, as the month of June goes, June 2014 was more like a bit above average (since typically June is a below average month). However, the coming month of August is often above average when it comes to earthquake frequency. That tendency and that upcoming month's potential based on the Astro & eclipse-aspect values, is likely to produce above average results. In other words, I would be surprised if there were less than 4 events of magnitude 6.8 or larger during August 2014.

How the numbers will stack up for August based on whether the events fall inside or outside of my predicted windows is not so clear. Normally, August performs badly in that respect (more events falling outside rather than inside the windows), but in August 2012, when significant events were above average, the results were in line with my projections. Astrology tends to be more of a factor when earthquake activity is greater than usual. With activity for the year 2013 also being strong and, with a record breaking peak in activity during April 2014, it would seem that there will be greater than usual activity for at least another year. If that is to be the case, then August 2014, should fit well with my forecasts.

To get an idea of how activity for magnitude 6.8 or greater earthquakes has played out over the years, I am including a graph (above) that shows the yearly average of these significant earthquakes (in increments of four years) from 1902 through 2013. In an earlier hub ("Gettin' On Down the Earthquake Prediction Road" from 2.5 years ago) I estimated that the year 2012 would be slightly less active than usual but that there was at least a 60% chance of an 8.4 magnitude or larger earthquake occurring during that year (on April 11, 2012, an 8.6, and shortly after, an 8.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Sumatra region). I then went on to assess the four years from 2013 through 2016 that would follow that year. My conclusion was that those years should be significantly above average in activity and that two earthquakes of at least 8.4 magnitude were likely during that period. So far, for the first 1.5 years of those 4 years, there have been powerful earthquakes of 8.0, 8.15, and 8.3 magnitude. It remains to be seen if activity will continue to be greater than usual with at least two 8.4 magnitude earthquakes occurring during the next 2.5 years.

For August, the astro and eclipse-aspect values are so elevated that I lowered the bar for determining some of the windows, to the point that, rather than occupying half of the time of August, 2014, the windows take up almost 60% of the time for that month. This fits with my impression that it should be a busy month. Here is my forecasted window areas with peak times and potential epicenter locations. Significant earthquakes (6.8 magnitude or greater) should overwhelmingly fall inside, rather than outside, the following windows:

2014-08/03, 1200UT to 08/04, 1800UT; peak 08/04 0000UT: Dominican Republic, Jamaica (or nearby areas), north of New Zealand, Chile, Mexico.

2014-08/07, 0230UT to 08/19, 1600UT; peak 08/10 0600UT: Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, islands north of New Zealand; peak 08/13, 1200UT: China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutian Islands, western U.S.; peak 08/15, 1800UT: northern or north of New Zealand, Chile; peak 08/16, 1800UT: Dominican Republic, Jamaica, etc.; peak 08/18, 0000UT: China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutian Islands, western U.S.; peak 08/18, 1800UT: Dominican Republic, Jamaica...

2014-08/23, 0000UT to 08/26, 1800UT; peak 08/24, 1800UT; peak 08/24, 1800UT: (same as both peak times on 08/18 given at end of last paragraph).

2014-08/28, 0000UT to 08/29, 1200UT; peak 08/28, 1800UT: Dominican Republic, Jamaica (or surrounding areas), Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, islands north of New Zealand.

© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

Submit a Comment

  • Fred Arnold profile image

    Fred Arnold 3 years ago from Clearwater, FL

    Thank you! I will definitely take a look!

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 3 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Thanks Fred ! Some of my more recent hubs have been looking at how, during the past half year, significant quakes have been coming in bits and spurts but, overall, the general trend for such quakes, especially 8.0 or greater, is that they are getting more and more frequent. If you'd like to read more of my hubs I'd recommend the following few for starters:

    Calm Before a Storm? http://hub.me/ageoE

    Seismically Speaking.. http://hub.me/ags1l

    Mega Quakes.. http://hub.me/aguUr

  • Fred Arnold profile image

    Fred Arnold 3 years ago from Clearwater, FL

    Very informative! I think I will start following for these updates. I will go through some of your other updates, but have you seen any significant irregularities recently? And is this part of your job or do you do this for funsies?

    Stay awesome!

    -Fred

  • Buildreps profile image

    Buildreps 3 years ago from Europe

    Of course I understand. This is already pretty accurate! Thanks.

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 3 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Hi Buildreps, I can't pin down an exact location as being the most likely, but I can narrow down the most likely dates for significant events: August 9-10, with possible epicenters in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, and the islands north of New Zealand. Also August 23-25, with possible epicenters in China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutian Islands, the western U.S. (other possible locations then are the islands south and east of Florida and southern Mexico and Central America).

  • Buildreps profile image

    Buildreps 3 years ago from Europe

    Hi retrojoe, I am already used to your monthly updates :) Is there one specific area where you expect a great earthquake? I always get lost in all the figures - can you add a short conclusion? Thanks and all the best!