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Earthquake Weather Report for December 2013-January 2014
As far as significant earthquakes were concerned (those that I define as being of at least 6.5 in magnitude), December 2013 was nearly a bust. There was one such earthquake in the Banda Sea of Indonesia at 1h24m13s into the month. But that quake just barely made it; as the USGS assigned it a magnitude of 6.4, while two other primary sources listed it as a 6.5 magnitude event.
Strangely, the next significant quake occurred a month later or also on the first day of the month. An earthquake of at least 6.5 magnitude occurred in Vanuatu on January 1, 2014 at 16h03m43s, Greenwich time. Usually, my earthquake forecasts only look a month in advance, but for my last report I gave predictions for December 2013 as well as the first 4 days of January 2014. Since, during that 35d2h5m period, there was one such quake inside my predicted windows (the last one mentioned) and one other such quake outside my windows, my performance for prediction was only 1.22 times greater than the expected average for the period of study based on their being only two significant events during 35.09 days and for windows comprising 41.1% of the full time period studied. If we exclude the first event as being just below 6.5 in magnitude than my results would be twice as good (2.43 times greater than the average).
During the past eight years (96 months) there has been on average just about one month out of every ten that had no more than one significant event occurring within it (ten such months in eight years). The average magnitude during such months was around 6.6 or 6.7 but in December 2009, there were no significant events. Both May and December had no more than one significant earthquake on 3 occasions each during the past eight years (2007, 2011 and 2012 for May and 2008, 2009 and 2013 for December).
Looking ahead, it appears that the strongest possibility for earthquakes during the next 31 days would be on 1/30/14, 2/2/14, and 2/5/14 or 2/6/14. The chances grow from one of these dates to the next. Also strong will be the dates 1/9 and 1/27/14. Since there were no back-to-back months with no more than one significant event during the eight years studied, it is unlikely that January will have just one significant event of 6.5 magnitude or greater. The indications astrologically seem to show that it is unlikely that it will be an above average month (more likely no more than average and probably a bit more likely still that it will be only two or three such events). Here are the times of the start and end of each window, along with the peak times and possible locations of occurrence. :
1/9/2014 0400-2200 (peak 1200) Italy, Japan, Newfoundland (45%)
1/17/14 0700-1700 (peak 1200) Japan, Papua, China (40% prob.)
1/27/14 0800-1/28/14 0900 (peak 1800) Russia, Iran, Greece (50%)
1/28 1500-1/31/14 2359 (peak 1/30 1800) Italy, China, Russia(55%)
2/1/14 1400-2/2/14 1100 (peak 1100) Chile, Russia (60% prob.)
2/5/14 0600-2/6/14 2100 (peak 0330) Russia, China, Italy (65%)
Range of forecast period= 31.8 days (range in time of windows= 8.1 days or 25.4% of total). If, during this period, three significant earthquakes should occur, one should fall within the forecasted windows based on a chance occurrence, but two such quakes inside the window areas would be expected by myself.
© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato