ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Earthquake Weather Report for February-March 2013

Updated on February 28, 2013
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Significant worldwide earthquake events for February 2013 (the 6.4 magnitude event was the largest pre-shock to the 7.95 magnitude quake in the Solomon Islands and the 5.1 magnitude quake in N. Korea was due to a nuclear test).
Significant worldwide earthquake events for February 2013 (the 6.4 magnitude event was the largest pre-shock to the 7.95 magnitude quake in the Solomon Islands and the 5.1 magnitude quake in N. Korea was due to a nuclear test). | Source


In the spring of 2012, I won a contest at hubpages for my hub answer to the question of whether astrology could predict earthquakes. I answered a resounding yes! How I chose to prove it was to introduce the readers to three different times during the year, when the sun was within three separate spans of zodiacal degrees, where destructive earthquakes were more likely to happen. At the end of the article I summed it up and stated that people should be more aware of the possibility of earthquakes during the periods of December 26-27, May 26-27, and February 5-6. On February 6 of this year there was a 7.9-8.0 magnitude earthquake in the Santa Cruz Islands, part of the Solomon Islands in the south Pacific region. It produced a small tsunami that caused enough destruction to result in the loss of about a dozen lives.


Map showing the six 6.6-7.1 magnitude aftershocks (yellow circles) to the 7.95 magnitude earthquake in the Solomon Islands (blue circle).
Map showing the six 6.6-7.1 magnitude aftershocks (yellow circles) to the 7.95 magnitude earthquake in the Solomon Islands (blue circle).


This quake and its six magnitude 6.6 to 7.1 aftershocks occurred during a seismic window that I defined in an earlier hub that extended from February 2nd to the 9th. This large window and a 24 hour one during the 18th and 19th of February, made up 35% of that month. Statistically one would expect an average of four 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes to fall within any given month and thus, just one or two such quakes would be expected within 9-10 days or a third of the month.


If we look at all of the earthquakes above 6.5 magnitude that fell within my window, I did extremely well in February, but if we exclude the aftershocks then the performance was not much better than average. This is partly due to the 6.9 magnitude Japanese earthquake of February 2nd falling just two and a quarter hours before the opening of my first window. There was also a 6.6 magnitude earthquake in Russia on February 14th, which fell between my two indicated windows. One last quake of 6.9 occurred on the last day of the month on the southern tip of the Kamchatka peninsula (there was a spike at the time of astrological values but since it was a bit below average I chose to ignore it earlier). Another quake that did fall within my first larger window was a 6.9 magnitude one in Colombia on February 9th. That quake was also felt across the border in Ecuador. Colombia wasn't on my list of possible locations for a quake on that date, but Ecuador was.


I wish to stress at this point that, even though my performance may have been about as it should have been statistically if the aftershocks are excluded, if we look at the total energy release of all events during the month of February, 95% of the tectonic force (for earthquakes of 6.6 magnitude or higher) occurred during my window of about eight days in length. The 7.95 magnitude earthquake released 79.63% of the energy for the month and the six aftershocks of 6.6 to 7.1 released 13.26% of the energy (calculated in joules). The last part of the equation is represented by the 6.9 magnitude Colombia earthquake which released 2.12% of the total seismic energy for the month. That leaves three earthquakes outside of my windows, ranging from 6.6 to 6.9 magnitude and representing 5% of the total energy released.


The seven 6.0-6.4 magnitude preshocks (yellow circles) that began a week before the main shock (blue circle) and a series of 6.0-7.0 magnitude aftershocks (orange and red circles) that occurred during the 24 hours following it.
The seven 6.0-6.4 magnitude preshocks (yellow circles) that began a week before the main shock (blue circle) and a series of 6.0-7.0 magnitude aftershocks (orange and red circles) that occurred during the 24 hours following it.


However, I didn't even come close to predicting the location of the great quake in the Santa Cruz islands. If I had been more alert I could have written an update to my earlier hub before it happened to state that that area was likely to have a very large event occur, but it wasn't until about an hour before that substantial earthquake that it became almost obvious to me that such was likely to occur there. That was due to a 6.0 magnitude event that occurred about an hour before the 8.0 one. The smaller quake was just one in a series of seven 6.0-6.4 magnitude pre-shocks that began less than three hours following a 6.8 magnitude event in Chile on January 30th. That date was the beginning of an active period that ended with the Russian quake of February 14th (the midpoint of that span centered on the time of the 8.0 magnitude quake of February 6). During that flurry of activity there were five quakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater (excluding the six aftershocks) in a stretch of just 15 days (or 2.5Xs the average; 5.5Xs the average if one counts the aftershocks).



Chart displaying graphically the potential for destructive earthquakes (6.5 magnitude or higher) during the month of March 2013.
Chart displaying graphically the potential for destructive earthquakes (6.5 magnitude or higher) during the month of March 2013.


For March, things look like they should be above average, but perhaps not as big as February (in energy release at least). During the upcoming month I am forecasting just one large window of 8.75 days in length or occupying 28.2% of the time in that month. It stretches from March 14 at 6pm, GMT to March 23 at noon, GMT. Statistically, there should be only one earthquake of 6.5 magnitude or larger falling within my window. I expect at least two. There will be four peaks during that period and I now present the dates and times of those peaks along with locations that have potential for destructive earthquakes at or near to those times.

March 15 at 1045 GMT: Iran, Italy, New Zealand, Greece, USA: Hawaii, N. California (Bay Area), Idaho.

March 17 at 0005 GMT: Iran, Indonesia, Greece, China, Italy, USA: Hawaii, N. Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, Maine.

March 19 at 1200 GMT: Iran, Greece, Italy, India, China, Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, USA: Nevada, California, Hawaii, N. Dakota, Alaska, New Mexico, Maine.

March 22 at 1810 GMT: Italy, Greece, Balkans, Iran, Japan, China, India, Colombia, Chile, USA: Alaska, California, Hawaii, N. Dakota, Nevada.


Copyright © 2013 Joseph W. Ritrovato


Maps showing locations of earthquakes in my astrological database (362 quakes mostly outside the U.S. and 127 quakes within the U.S.).
Maps showing locations of earthquakes in my astrological database (362 quakes mostly outside the U.S. and 127 quakes within the U.S.).

Comments

Submit a Comment

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather UPDATE: Have been tweaking the program I use to make my predictions and have decided to extend the start and end of my large window in March so that it is exactly 10 days (32.3% of the month) beginning on March 14 at 00h00m, GMT and ending on March 24 at 00h00m, GMT. There is also a good chance of a 6.5 magnitude or greater quake occurring during a 40 hour window centered on March 10 at 18h00m, GMT. Both of these windows together brings the total time occupied in the month of March to 37.6%, with a statistical likelihood of 1 or 2 such quakes falling within them (I am expecting at least 2 or 3).

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather UPDATE: Below I am including a new list of possible dates and locations of earthquakes in March 2013. I have added some minor peak times that happen earlier in the month before the major 10 day window that begins on March 14 and also added three major transition dates within that larger window that I feel are significant. The dates that were given earlier in my hub are also presented again here but with revised location data.

    Minor Windows

    3/6/13 (minor peak) at 2045UT +-10h15m = Turkey, Greece, Taiwan, Mexico, China, CA, HI.

    3/8/13 (minor peak) at 1822UT +-2hrs = Italy, Turkey, China, Japan, Iran, CA, NV, AK.

    3/10/13 (minor peak) at 1800UT +-20hrs = Iran, Chile, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Venezuela, Mexico, Taiwan, China, Italy, CA, AK, HI.

    Major Peaks and Transitions within large window from 3/14/13 at 0000UT to 3/24/13 at 0000UT

    3/15/13 (major peak) at 1045UT = China, Iran, Italy, Chile, CA, HI, AK, OR (coast).

    3/16/13 (major transition) at 1200 = Taiwan, Iran, Indonesia, Italy, China, CA, HI, NM, NV.

    3/17/13 (major peak) at 0005UT = Iran, Greece, Taiwan, Italy, CA, NM, HI, NV.

    3/18/13 (major transition) at 0000UT = Greece, China, Iran, Italy, Chile, CA, HI, AK.

    3/19/13 (major peak) at 1200UT = Japan, Iran, Italy, China, India, HI, NV, CA, AK, OR (coast).

    3/21/13 (major transition) at 1200UT = Italy, New Zealand, China (esp. Hebei Province), Iran, Ecuador, CA, AK, HI.

    3/22/13 (major peak) at 1810UT = China, Iran, Chile, Japan, CA, AK, HI, NV.

Click to Rate This Article