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Earthquake Weather Report for July 2014

Updated on May 14, 2018

Not long ago I purchased a book by David Nabhan entitled "Forecasting the Catastrophe: An Analysis of When and Where the Next Great Earthquake on the West Coast Will Strike" (published in 2010). Inside the book he gives an Earthquake Almanac or "A Table of Higher Probability for Seismic Activity". The locations of the possible activity for the dates he lists are for areas near the San Adreas Fault, Cascadia Subduction Zone, and the West Coast of the U.S. in general.

For these geographic areas, Nabhan says that there is ample evidence that three astronomical factors determine likely periods of time for earthquake activity: 1. During a period of 2 hours before or after sunrise or sunset, 2. The moon and sun within 1.5 days of a full or new moon, 3. The Moon within 24 hours of perigee (closest approach of the moon to the earth in its orbit).

The evidence that he points to relates to six earthquakes of 5.8 to 7.3 magnitude that happened within a 70 mile radius of Los Angeles' City Center from 1933 to 1994 (the 7.3 magnitude quake in July 1952 actually occurred 76.74 miles from Los Angeles' City Center). All of them happened at or near sundown or sunup (although one on 1/17/1994 occurred 2.5 hours before sun-up and there was no full or new moon) and two thirds of them within 36 hours of an exact full or new moon. He suggests that the moon being at or near perigee increases the chances of earthquakes as well, but he doesn't go into great detail.

From my research of 397 earthquakes (not limited to southern California as Nebhan's study appears to be zeroing in on) it appears that there is some correlation between full moon and earthquakes but not new moons. The only exception to this would be when there is an eclipse involved and then there is a delay of usually a few months to a few years before an earthquake results at a location within a few hundred miles of where the eclipse shadow fell on the face of the earth. Also, the full moon has to be in a tight, near 180 degree, aspect with the sun (within a few hours from being exact rather than within 1.5 days). I have also found perigee of the moon to be a factor (within a similar range of give or take 24 hours of exact). I wish to stress that my research is based on world wide earthquakes rather than those just limited to southern California (different rules may apply in that specific area).

Looking further back in time than Nabhan did, the 1/9/1857, Tejon Pass earthquake (7.9 magnitude) fits in with his sunrise-sunset hypothesis and the sun and moon are close to being in a full moon configuration. The Great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 (magnitude 7.8) also occurred shortly before sun-up (but there was no full or new moon at that time).


Although the Great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 is estimated to have occurred on January 26 at 9pm, local time, reportedly in the Gregorian calendar, the astrological evidence would point to the event happening about 2 days and 2.5 hours earlier using the Julian calendar (translating to February 3, 1700 at no later than 6:30pm, local mean time in the Gregorian calendar). This astrologically defined date also then fits in with author David Nabhan's hypothesis that the most destructive earthquakes on the West Coast of the U.S. occur around the times of sunrise or sunset and often when the moon is at or near full or new. The modified date for the Great Cascadia earthquake of 1700, yields an astrological chart where it is no more than 1.5 hours past sunset, the moon is up to 5.5 hours past an exact full moon and at perigee.

An upcoming date, July 12, 2014, is one that Nabhan is predicting will be a likely time for a potentially destructive earthquake in southern California. Coincidentally, my astrological indicators point to this date as well for a possible earthquake at or near to sundown on the west coast of the U.S. (but also possible in Alaska, Japan, or China/Taiwan). That date and time (as well as sun-up the next day), and about 3 days before and after it, makes up the most likely window for a significant earthquake (of 6.8 magnitude or larger) for the whole month of July in 2014. Conversely, the first nine days of July point to below average seismic activity (as far as significant earthquakes are concerned). There is a similar period in June from the 18th through the 21st when activity should be slight. So far, June has been a below average month, but things may start to pick up temporarily from the 22nd to the 28th and the last day of the month. I expect July 2014 to have at least average results and then pick up further in August 2014.

Here are the projected astro-value windows (make up 45.3% of the month) with potential epicenter locations for significant earthquake activity (magnitude 6.8 or larger events) during July 2014:

2014-07/10, 0800UT to 2014-07/11, 1300UT (29 hours): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, U.S. west coast, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands.

2014-07/11, 1800UT to 2014-07/16, 0900UT (4d15h): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, U.S. west coast, Dominican Republic and/or surrounding islands.

2014-07/16, 2000UT to 2014-07/17, 1800UT (22 hours): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, U.S. west coast.

2014-07/19, 0200UT to 2014-07/20, 1800UT (40 hours): Dominican Republic and/or surrounding islands.

2014-07/21, 0200UT to 2014-07/21, 1800UT (16 hours): Dominican Republic and/or surrounding islands, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands.

2014-07/23, 0300UT to 2014-07/23, 2300UT (20 hours): Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands.

2014-07/25, 0200UT to 2014-07/26, 1800UT (40 hours): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, U.S. west coast.

2014-07/27, 2100UT to 2014-07/28, 1400UT (17 hours): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, U.S. west coast, Dominican Republic and/or surrounding islands.

2014-07/28, 1900UT to 2014-07/29, 0000UT (5 hours): ditto

2014-07/29, 1100UT to 2014-07/31, 0000UT (37 hours): ditto but especially China and possibly also Iran.

Earthquake Weather Update (6/19/2014):

To test author David Nabhan's hypothesis, I collected 32 earthquakes of 6.7 magnitude or larger from 1812 to the present (from states that border the west coast of the U.S.). I looked at the angular relationship between the sun and moon and found that the moon came within 20 degrees of a conjunction to the sun (0 degrees or a new moon) on three occasions and came within 20 degrees of an opposition to the sun (180 degrees or a full moon) three times as well. Since a random distribution would average 3.55 times each, the results were no better than chance.

After converting the Universal Time of each event to Local Mean Time (LMT) and sorting them into two hour slots around a 24 hour clock, I found that there appears to be no correlation with the period around sundown. Of the twelve slots around the clock dial, there was only one that had no events within it and that was at 5pm (give or take an hour). In other words, that period of time would seem to be the safest time to avoid an earthquake (although the Loma Prieta earthquake of October 1989 occurred at 5:04pm, PDT, that translates to 3:57pm, LMT at the epicenter). However, there appeared to be a strong correlation with earthquakes during the slot centered on 5am. During that two hour period, significant earthquakes (of 6.7 magnitude or greater) occurred 2.6 times more often than the statistical average (see graphic display below).

As a result of these findings, it appears that the most likely date and time for a significant earthquake on the west coast of the U.S. in July would be on July 13, 2014 at approximately 5am, PST or 6am, PDT (give or take 1.5 hours). It could be as much as 3 days before or after this however, since the peak time is in the middle of a 6 day wide astro-value defined window.

Earthquake Prediction Books by David Nabhan

Forecasting the Catastrophe: An Analysis of When and Where the Next Great Earthquake on the West Coast Will Strike
Forecasting the Catastrophe: An Analysis of When and Where the Next Great Earthquake on the West Coast Will Strike

This is the same book that I purchased in October 2013. It's a good book at a good price.

 

© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

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  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: I just finished focusing on those specific days in August 2014 with the greatest potential for significant earthquakes (August 9-10 and 23-25). When I briefly looked back at my forecast for July 2014, I realized that my earlier hub had not emphasized the potential for a peak of astro-aspect values to occur on July 23, 2014 at 10:45am, GMT. If a significant earthquake (of 6.8 magnitude or greater) does not occur on this date, I'll be a bit surprised. Possible epicenter locations for around this time (0300-2300UTC) would be Papua New Guinea and/or the Solomon Islands.

  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: Out of 5 possibilities; new moon, full moon, dawn, dusk, or perigee, my research suggests that author David Nabhan hypothesis for earthquake prediction on the west coast of the U.S. got it right on 2 of those 5. I've added a few paragraphs to the end of my last hub that gives the details on what I found..

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