ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Earthquake Weather Report for May-June 2013

Updated on June 10, 2013
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Magnitude 6.5 or larger worldwide earthquakes for May 2013 based on USGS/NEIC event data.
Magnitude 6.5 or larger worldwide earthquakes for May 2013 based on USGS/NEIC event data. | Source


In my last Earthquake Weather Report (for April/May 2013), I designated three window areas within which I felt, based on astrology, significant earthquakes (6.5 magnitude or greater) would be more likely to occur. These windows represented 40.3% of the time making up the month of May. Statistically, the most likely result would be that 1 or 2 such earthquakes would fall within these windows, but 3 occurred inside and one outside instead (those three quakes amounting to 1.86Xs the statistical average of 1.61 per month).

The results were thus rather successful in a fashion similar to my results in February 2013 (even down to there being an 8.0 magnitude or greater quake falling inside one of my windows of time). The expected average for 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes in a given month are 4 such quakes. This past month there were 4 such quakes, but they were exceptional in that the normal breakdown would be 3 quakes ranging from 6.5 to 7.0 and one remaining quake of 7.1 magnitude or larger. For May 2013, there was the rare 8.3 magnitude quake as well as a 7.4 magnitude event in that upper zone.

All of these were deep earthquakes (occurring under 70kms below the surface of the earth). Three of the four were at an exceptional 600kms or more in depth (the deepest events ever recorded were in the 620-651km range and these last three of magnitude 7.4 and 8.3 with a 6.7 aftershock were in the 601-623km range).

To further gauge the significance of the results, if one looks at the amount of energy released for earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or larger during the month of May 2013, one will find that 99.467% of it occurred within my windows and only 0.533% happened outside of those windows (or 187Xs more energy inside than out). In other words, the 6.8 magnitude quake that fell outside of the windows released approximately 1.0e+15 Joules of energy, while the three quakes within the windows that registered 6.7-8.3 magnitude released the equivalent of 1.86566e+17 Joules of energy.

As I brought up in a recent earthquake related hub, I am expecting an exceptionally large earthquake (8.0 magnitude or greater) in the New Guinea area and another potentially destructive earthquake in one of two locations off the east coast of Japan (roughly 7.0 magnitude, give or take 0.5 magnitude). This coming month may be when at least one of those quakes will occur and I am feeling that New Guinea is the more likely location if either is to happen in June 2013. At least astrological indicators point that way. I must admit that I have not been very successful at predicting earthquake locations on the face of the planet so far, but as I look more and more at the bigger picture, that should improve.



For June 2013, the number of windows now comes out to four (it was three the previous month as I stated earlier) and the amount of time that they encompass is approximately the same or 39.4% this time whereas it was 40.3% last time. Here is the new breakdown and possible epicenter locations:

2013-06--04 2300GMT +-7hrs in Indonesia, Ecuador, Italy, Turkey, Iran, Chile, China, Alaska, or California.

2013-06-08 2100GMT +-43hrs in Italy, China, Turkey, Peru, Venezuela, Jamaica, Alaska, California, Hawaii, or Kansas.

2013-06-24 0000GMT +-72hrs in China, Turkey, Indonesia, Armenia, or Alaska.

2013-06-30 0500GMT +-20hrs in Indonesia, China, Peru, Greece, Alaska, California, or Washington.


Magnitude 7.4 Tonga earthquake of May 23, 2013 and its three foreshocks (one of the last two listed is a duplicate).  Data and map courtesy of the USGS/NEIC.
Magnitude 7.4 Tonga earthquake of May 23, 2013 and its three foreshocks (one of the last two listed is a duplicate). Data and map courtesy of the USGS/NEIC.


In closing, the map above represents a series of foreshocks to the 7.4 magnitude Tonga quake of May 23rd. Notice how the smaller preshocks encircle the main shock and occurred 12-27 days prior. Recently I read that about 50% of all earthquakes of moderate to large size are preceded by a foreshock. Also, the same source ( ALARM SYSTEMS BASED ON A PAIR OF SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1988 ) stated, based on another southern California study (Jones, 1985), that a single quake of at least 4.5 magnitude is 5% likely to be a foreshock (within a 5 day window). Since they also said that such a chance was only 2% for quakes of lesser magnitude (within a 2 day window), if we raise the bar to say earthquakes of a minimum magnitude of 5.5, that there may be something like a 10% likelihood of their being a main shock to follow. A page on wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreshock ) states that for moderate to large earthquakes, foreshocks are present about 40% of the time and for 7.0 magnitude or greater quakes it is around 70% (a magnitude 5.5 event would be about the right size for a foreshock to a 7.0 magnitude main shock). They also stated that although most foreshocks occur within minutes or days of a main shock, it is not unheard of for there to be a much longer delay between the two, even by as much as two years (but that exceptionally early foreshock of 7.3 magnitude on November 2, 2002, was for an equally exceptional main shock of 9.1 magnitude on December 26, 2004).

Seismologists often say that after 5 days the chance of their being a linked main shock to a potential pre-shock greatly diminishes, but that may not necessarily be true if we are dealing with more than one possible pre-shock. As the number of potential pre-shocks increases, so too does the chance of a main shock following them.

I believe that an earthquake of 5.5 magnitude or greater, especially when linked to other similar sized quakes over the course of days or weeks, should be seen as a time to be alert for a much larger event and thus one should not let ones guard down after a window of a few days afterwards. Under such a multi-quake scenario, other possible indicators for a possible larger quake should be sought out (such as any unusual changes in the level of radon gas in well water, magnetic or RF wave anomalies, and strange animal behavior to name a few). What was just presented in these last few paragraphs will again be reviewed and expanded on in a future hub.


Copyright © 2013 Joseph W. Ritrovato

Comments

Submit a Comment

  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    5 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: As of 9am, Pacific time on June 4, 2013, the first astrologically defined window for this June will open. During the 14 hours that follow there is a stronger likelihood than usual for a 6.5 magnitude or larger earthquake to occur somewhere in the world (see my hub for possible locations).

    I have gone over my forecasts and found that my parameters given earlier for the second window were a bit off. The midpoint of that window is more likely occurring at 1500UTC on June 8, starting 47 hours before and ending 47 hours after that. The peak within that period is at 1915UTC on the 8th of June. Of the possible locations, Japan should also be included, immediately following Jamaica on the list.

    Since this second window has been expanded by eight hours, the four windows that I have defined now occupy 292 hours out of 720 hours or 40.6% of the month of June.

working

This website uses cookies

As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

Show Details
Necessary
HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
Features
Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
Marketing
Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
Statistics
Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)