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Earthquake Weather Report for November 2014 (+review of prior 2 months)
When looking at the normal energy released in magnitude tiers of 6.5-6.7 (average of 2 earthquakes per month), 6.8-7.0 (1 earthquake per month), & 7.1 and up (1 earthquake per month), events in August 2004, came to about 75% of normal. The downward trend continued into September, where I estimate the activity was about 25% of normal. At the moment, however, things appear to be bouncing back. Two events of at least 7.1 magnitude have already occurred, with the month of October not quite half over.
The area of the least activity out of the three would be in the 6.5-6.7 magnitude range with only 25% of the normal number of events. Up until the past few days, the tier with the least frequency would be in the 7.1 or larger magnitude range with 0% of normal (it is now at normal levels). The tier of 6.8-7.0 magnitude quakes is at the 100% of normal range.
So, with the exception of the middle tier, and looking at activity until just before October 9, 2014 (the first 7 of 8 weeks), the general trend is downward, but the last week of activity may be the start of an upward trend.
My forecasts, at least as far as the timing of significant seismic events during the past two months is concerned, achieved results of twice that of what would be expected from the statistical average. This was due to four of the last four events of 6.8 magnitude or larger occurring inside my astrologically defined windows (when two out of four would have been the expected results based on the statistical average).
One of the four events that I'm counting as being of magnitude 6.8, is an earthquake that occurred near Guam on September 17, 2014. The USGS originally had assigned a 7.1 magnitude to that event but then downgraded it to a 6.7. GEOFON in Germany also lists it as a 6.7, even though their estimates are on average 0.1 magnitude less than the values listed by the USGS. Another reliable source, the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Database, lists this earthquake as being one of 6.8 magnitude. I thus consider the magnitude of this event to be approximately 6.75, which rounds up to 6.8 magnitude.
It is uncertain if November will be above average for seismic activity. Although the windows for that month occupy 54.2% of the time during the month (which is typical), a large chunk of the month has only low level spikes of astro-aspect values. On the other hand, if one looks at a breakdown of 7.75 magnitude or larger earthquakes for a 110 year period, November and December lead all the other months by a considerable margin (and come in at 1.64 & 1.57Xs greater than the statistical average respectively). In second place would be May and June (1.34 & 1.31Xs greater respectively). However, different rules seemed to apply for quakes below the 7.75 magnitude threshold. For example, earthquakes of 6.75-7.74 occurred the least frequently in December, the most frequently in November (but only at 1.15Xs the statistical average). June was also below average and May was above average (but only 1.05Xs the statistical average).
So, the frequency of November's significant events (6.8 magnitude or larger) may not be certain (should be 1 to 3 quakes of that size). However, the large seismic window that occurs on November 21 and lasts through the end of the month contains at least one peak that is capable of producing an earthquake of at least 7.3 magnitude. There are also strong eclipse-aspect peaks on the 1st through the 3rd and on the 6th of November that could indicate significant earthquakes, even though there are no substantial peaks of astro-aspect values accompanying them.
Without any further ado, here are the most likely times and possible locations of significant seismic events (6.8 magnitude or larger) to occur in November 2014:
2014-11-01, 1200 UTC to 2014-11-04, 0000 UTC (2.5 days): North or East of Australia, Chile or Peru, and/or southeast of Florida.
2014-11-05, 0600 UTC to 2014-11-07, 0000 UTC (1.75 days): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, N.Calif./S. Oregon, southeast of Florida, North or East of Australia, and/or Chile or Peru.
2014-11-09, 1200 UTC to 2014-11-11, 0000 UTC (1.5 days): Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, south Pacific islands, China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, N.Calif./S.Oregon, north to east of Australia, and/or Chile or Peru.
2014-11-18, 0600 UTC to 2014-11-19, 1200 UTC (1.25 days): southeast of Florida.
2014-11-21, 1800 UTC to end of month (9.25 days): China/Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, N.Calif./S. Oregon, southeast of Florida, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, south Pacific, north of New Zealand, and/or Chile or Peru.
© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato