Earthquake Weather Report for October-November 2013
In this report I will begin the review of activity a bit earlier than usual. In the graphic above is shown a chart for 9/21 thru 10/20/13 of both the regular astro aspect values and, for the first time, eclipse aspect values related to the 5/20/12 and 11/13/12 eclipses. Earthquake activity is also shown. The number of such events in this 30 day period is twice that of normal.
My record for predicted compared to actual occurrences was not too impressive for this time frame. Half of the events fell within the projected window areas. However, this chart shows the astro aspect values using a new algorithm which put the dates of 9/24 and 9/25/13 into play, where those dates were outside of a window before. Eclipse aspect value peaks on 9/24 and 10/1/13 also would have lead me to choose all hours for those dates as likely for significant earthquake activity if I knew then what I know now.
So, if I had been using the newer data sets, 7 of the 8 significant events would have fallen inside window areas rather than just 4. One of those occurrences that flipped from outside to inside a window was the 6.7 magnitude quake in the Sea of Okhotsk on 10/1/2013. This seismic event was an aftershock to an 8.3 earthquake which occurred there on 5/24/2013.
My present stance on aftershocks is that they are wild cards that are left out of the final analysis of how many earthquakes occurred inside or outside of projected windows. In my opinion, although it is becoming clearer that some of them appear to be predictable, a much higher percentage than a pre-shock or main-shock event are not. So for now, I am treating all aftershocks as random events which can not reliably be predicted and thus are excluded from the final assessment of how I did in my earlier forecast (it should be noted that if I had included them in my earlier report reviewing the month of September 2013, I would have had better results).
Another such event was the 7.1 magnitude earthquake off the northeastern shore of Japan on 10/25/13. That one was an aftershock to the 3/11/11 magnitude 9.0 earthquake. This quake fell within my earlier projected window but lies outside of it when using my newer algorithm. I may choose to include aftershocks in my roundup analysis in future reports but for now they are out.
The 10/15/13 earthquake in the Philippines also now falls well inside a window whereas before it was just barely within it. Also, notice the double peak of eclipse values at the time of this earthquake. Separately they have a value of 2 and 3, but together it equals a value of 5. There is also a significant peak of the 11/13/12 eclipse values at the time of the Solomon Islands earthquake of 10/16/13 (6.8Mw). There was also a peak for the 5/20/12 eclipse values about 12 hours after that (close enough to be a factor).
As I was saying earlier, using a new set of qualifiers that define the resulting aspect values, the 9/24/13 Pakistani 7.7 magnitude earthquake and the 9/25/13 Peru 7.1 magnitude earthquake would have fallen inside window areas. They also were at or near a peak of eclipse aspect values for the 5/20/12 eclipse. Although this peak would have added weight to a quake prediction, the eclipse would have thrown me off when it comes to the location of the event since Pakistan was not even close to the partial eclipse zone.
The earthquake that occurred on 10/12/13, or the only event that lies outside window areas using both the earlier and later sets of data, may actually have been just below the 6.5 magnitude threshold that I use to define a significant event. Several sources give its magnitude as either 6.4, 6.5 or 6.7 Mw (the USGS/NEIC is the source for the first estimate).
Looking now at the last 11 days of October (see the zoomed in chart view above), we see that activity, unless it picks up again in the last couple days of the month, has slowed a bit. I do expect at least one more significant event before the month is over however. Although there was a near simultaneous eclipse value peak and astro value peak at late 11/26/13 or early on 11/27/13, the former value peak was just after the later one (usually it has to be the other way around for their to be a trigger effect) and the value of the former was also below 4.0 which also makes it less reliable to set things off. If there is an earthquake manifested from this peak it will occur either on 10/30/13 or on 10/31/13, when again the eclipse value peak just follows an astro value peak, but this time they are of greater value and there is pent up energy from before. If a significant earthquake happens related to the events of this last date, it could actually occur as late as during the first six hours of November 2013.
And now for the really big news...
I am expecting that during 11/4 through 11/10/13 (with the exception of 11/8), there will be at least two significant seismic events. As a result of using eclipses to determine more precise times and locations, I believe that at least one of these earthquakes will occur in the southern portion of Japan on, or a day from, 11/5/13 and have a magnitude of at least 7.2 Mw. You can read more about this prediction in another recent hub of mine.
What follows is a breakdown of when and where earthquakes of at least 6.5 Mw in magnitude are more likely to occur during the month of November 2013:
11/1/13 0000-0600 UTC, peaks on 10/31/13 at 0950 UTC (14.23 value); possible location= Japan (Sakata area) (14.86). Other possible locations would be the areas north to the Sea of Okhotsk or Kamchatka or east of there to the Aleutian Islands.
11/4/13 1200-11/7/13 1800 UTC, peaks on 11/5/13 at 1455 UTC (20.08 value); possible location= Japan (Kyoto area) (25.4 at 0940 UTC on 11/5/13). Other possible locations= same as given at the end of 11/1/13.
11/9/13 0200-11/11/13 0330 UTC, peaks on 11/9/13 at 2100 UTC (10.02 value); possible locations= Turkey (16.7), Philippines (15.0), China (14.12), Greece (13.66), Chile (13.4), Vanuatu (12.82).
11/15/13 1300-11/16/13 1200 UTC, peaks on 11/16/13 at 0200 UTC (11.28 value); possible locations= Japan (Kyoto area) (21.15) (resonates to Mino-Owari quake of 1891 at 1910 UTC on 11/16= 28.38 value), Italy (17.66), Chile (15.39), Rat Islands, AK (13.58), Turkey (13.3).
11/21/13 1700-11/25/13 1200 UTC, peaks on 11/23/13 at 2135 UTC (11.08 value); possible locations= China (21.16), Chile (Valdivia) (15.4), Italy (14.9), Indonesia (Papua) (14.3), Syria/Lebanon (12.97).
© 2013 Joseph Ritrovato