- Education and Science
Earthquake Weather Update for August 2014
With August 2014 setting records for heat and wildfires... and since catastrophes seem to come in clusters these days (or at the very least seem to be happening more than usual), it doesn't come as a shock to me that based on the first few days of this same month, killer quakes are on the rise.
It started out at 0411 UTC on August 1st, when a 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred near Algiers, Algeria. At least six people died as a result of that temblor (all indirectly such as from two people jumping out of a 3rd story window or due to heart attacks). Back in late February, 1960, nearby Morocco (in Agadir) suffered 13,000 casualties from a single quake estimated to have been 5.8 magnitude (a large toll for what seismologists would normally consider a moderate sized quake).
At 0022 UTC on August 3rd, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake (from this point on referred to as a significant event) occurred in the region of the Federated States of Micronesia. I have no reports of deaths in this earthquake however. It occurred less than 12 hours before my estimate of when a 30 hour window would open.
Although I had estimated the potential for a likely significant quake as almost no earlier than 12 hours after it occurred, I can now justify an earlier time. My potential epicenters were off except for the possible location of "north of New Zealand". How I would define the potential area now (based on the location of a prior eclipse' shadow on the surface of the earth) would be "N or E of Australia". Although technically, for the purpose of the monthly tallies, all quakes outside of windows are counted as likely random events this quake was perhaps more likely to have had a relationship with astrology.
Less than eight hours later, there was an earthquake in Zhaotong, Yunnan, China noteworthy for the surprising large number of deaths and damage that resulted from an earthquake estimated to have been as low as 5.9 or as high as 6.2 magnitude. At last check, the death toll was 614 with 114 missing, 3,143 injured, and at least 200,000 people displaced. The main reason for such severe effects is that the shock wave was at its maximum, horizontal orientation (see red and white ball shaped graphic to the right of the event listing shown below). I suspect that the Agadir, Morocco earthquake of February 29, 1960 had similar characteristics.
This early activity for August, may be a warning of how the month as a whole will turn out (more active than normal as I related in my original August 2014 forecast). July of course was almost exactly average and didn't produce the dreaded west coast damaging quake in the U.S. as was suggested might happen on or about July 12, 2014 per author David Nabhan. The same investigator has also suggested other seismic windows (for the west coast of the U.S.) to open on August 10, 2014 and then on September 9, 2014.
Looking at my projection of likely earthquake dates for August, 2014, there is a significant peak displayed for the 9th and 10th of August, but there are other noteworthy peaks for the month as well. Related to this is the fact that I am now using a newer algorithm that makes my projected window dates a bit different than was displayed in my last hub (shown here also for comparison purposes).
So, how has the outlook changed then for August 2014? The outlook in general remains about the same. In other words, it should be an above average month (perhaps like June was but I'm expecting more than that). Even the general locations of potential earthquake epicenters remains about the same. Only the timing,
for the most part, has changed.
The biggest change is the shortening and breaking in two of the largest window for the month. There is also a more pronounced peak on the 9th of August and more activity during the last three days of the month. The windows now comprise 16.3 days or 52.6% of the month (16.8 days or 54.2% if the first window begins 12 hours earlier; it isn't presented here because it has already passed). Here is the new breakdown of significant earthquakes and their potential locations for August 2014:
2014, 08/8, 0730 UT to 8/11, 2200 UT (86.5 hrs): Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, S. Pacific, Brazil or Columbia.
2014, 08/14, 1600 UT to 8/18, 0300 UT (83 hrs): N. & E. of Australia, China or Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, coast of N. CA, or S. OR, NV.
2014, 08/19, 0000 UT to 8/19, 1800 UT (18 hrs): S or E of FL.
2014, 08/23, 0000 UT to 8/26, 1800 UT (90 hrs): China or Taiwan, Japan, Aleutians, coast of N CA or S OR, NV, S or E of FL.
2014, 08/28, 0000 UT to end of month (96 hrs): Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, S Pacific, Brazil or Columbia, S or E of FL.
© 2014 Joseph Ritrovato