ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

2017 Seismic Review-Forecast (1st Quarter)

Updated on January 1, 2017
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

5.8M or larger seismic events for the months of October-December 2016, courtesy IRIS and GCMT.
5.8M or larger seismic events for the months of October-December 2016, courtesy IRIS and GCMT.

A Seismic Look at the Last 3 Months

Three months ago I wrote a forecast hub for the last 3 months of 2016. I expected things seismically to pick up speed in that quarter compared to the one before. October was projected to be a bit more active than average for significant events of 6.8 magnitude or larger. As it turned out, there were no such quakes that month and activity was average for earthquakes smaller than that. So it was more than a bit below average instead. However, the next month was a bit above average and the month after that was more active still.

As a matter of fact, beginning on 13 November 2016 (with a 7.8 magnitude temblor in New Zealand; exactly 4 years after a total solar eclipse that cast its shadow just north of New Zealand) and continuing till December 25 2016 (with a 7.55 magnitude aftershock of the 22 May 1960 Chile earthquake of 9.5 magnitude), there were three seismic events of at least 7.8 magnitude and one of either 7.5 or 7.6 in magnitude. If one looks at just the 7.8 and 7.9 magnitude quakes (that last one the largest quake of 2016) of the 8th and 17th of December (in the Solomon Islands and the New Britain region of Papua New Guinea; both not far from an annular solar eclipse path that went through the area 3.6 years before), they represented a frequency more than 30 times what the average occurrence is for quakes of at least 7.8M (2.5 of them per year is the average or one every 147 days). If one looks at the last 3 quakes, starting with the 7.8M on 8 December and ending with the 7.55M on Christmas day, they occurred 12 times more frequently than normal (for the 17 day period).

Data from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog with aftershocks removed.
Data from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog with aftershocks removed.

So there was a bit of a worldwide earthquake storm from mid November to about a week before the end of December or for 42 days. At this point though it appears that the show is over. There have been only two shocks of 5.9 and 6.2 magnitude (representing half the normal frequency) during the week following the 7.55 magnitude Christmas quake.

The death toll ironically was largest for quakes that were smaller than the four that occurred with a magnitude of at least 7.55. There was a total of three deaths from the two 7.8 magnitude quakes and no deaths from the 7.9 and 7.55 magnitude events. The largest death toll, with 103 casualties, came from a 6.4 magnitude shock in northern Sumatra on 6 December 2016. The difference being that this last shock was very shallow and very close to a populated area. The largest four events, although quakes of that size are capable of producing dangerous tsunamis, did not generate any damaging seismic ocean waves.

Screen shot showing Astro-Aspect Value peaks during the month of January 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).
Screen shot showing Astro-Aspect Value peaks during the month of January 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).

Seismic Forecast for the Next 3 Months

The next three months is expected to be similar to the last three months in that it should end with a greater frequency of significant events than it starts off with. We still seem to be in a mostly average period of seismic activity. However, unlike 2016, it is my belief that, beginning as early as 11 March 2017, a more active period will result and last for at least 2-3 months. During this period or later in the year, it is expected that there will be an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude (something that did not happen in 2016). There is also a good likelihood that 2017 will produce at least two quakes of 8.0 magnitude or greater.

The most likely dates in January 2017 would be the 3rd & 4th, the 12th, the 24th, and the last two days of the month; especially in the eastern Indonesia to north of New Zealand areas. The seismic windows for this month will occupy less than 20% of the month of January 2017.


Graphic representation of Astro-Aspect Values for the month of February 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).
Graphic representation of Astro-Aspect Values for the month of February 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).

The first week of February 2017 is likely to be a bit busy, especially from the 2nd through the 6th. Also likely is activity during the 18th through the 20th of the month, followed by a potential two days on the 26th and 27th of the month. Picking a location for this month is nearly impossible if you base it on the eclipse that seems to fit the period best. The reason for that is because the eclipse ended at the North Pole. When that happens all longitudes are possible locations of a significant earthquake's epicenter, but perhaps more likely in the northern than in the southern hemisphere. Also perhaps more likely in Asia or Europe as well. The seismic windows for this month will occupy 36% of the month of February 2017.


Graphic representation of Astro-Aspect Values for the month of March 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).
Graphic representation of Astro-Aspect Values for the month of March 2017 (from the Kepler 8 astrology program).

Similar to February, March may be busy during the 1st through the 5th, and again (but more likely) during the 10th through the 14th. There is a strong possibility that the 18th will be active. The most active period should be from the 22nd through the 25th, but the 27th through the end of the month may rival it.

The Seismic windows (derived from peaks in Astro-Aspect Values) for this month occupies 61% of the month of March 2017. I am expecting at least two events of 6.8 magnitude or greater. In other words it should be at least average, but it is expected that it will be at least 50% above the average frequency (or at least three rather than the usual two per month).

Data courtesy IRIS and the GCMT catalog.
Data courtesy IRIS and the GCMT catalog.

© 2017 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

Submit a Comment

No comments yet.

working

This website uses cookies

As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

Show Details
Necessary
HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
Features
Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
Marketing
Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
Statistics
Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)