ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Trouble Brewing In the Southern Ring of Fire?

Updated on March 28, 2015
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Magnitudes displayed above came from the following source.  The 2nd source given below was used to create the map and list shown here.
Magnitudes displayed above came from the following source. The 2nd source given below was used to create the map and list shown here. | Source
Source

Like in Ray Bradbury's book “Something Wicked This Way Comes”, the lightning rod maker and salesman that visited the two lads born just a minute or two apart on Halloween, a storm's brewing and you best be prepared. Fortuitously he came to herald a destructive act of nature and supply a means of protection. And so perhaps here I am to do the same.. At least the herald part.

The last three earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater occurred since March 10th, 2013, and ominously they landed in the same general area of the Ring of Fire, the tectonic powerhouse that forms a circle along the pacific oceans edges.

Now I didn't always pay attention to such things, but I noticed a bit too late that there was a series of quakes in the magnitude range of the lower 6's that happened in the area where the last 7.9-8.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Santa Cruz Islands (also listed below).

Source: GFZ - Helmholtz Centre - Potsdam (same URL as the first one given under the map above).
Source: GFZ - Helmholtz Centre - Potsdam (same URL as the first one given under the map above).

These last three quakes are located not too far west of there and not too distant time wise as well. It is getting me to thinking that the magnitude 8.0 event, due to it causing a redistribution of stress in the area, is potentially likely to set off another quake of similar or greater size, occurring not so very far away from it in time and space.

Actually, since these last three quakes are about one half a magnitude greater in size than the pre-shocks of the 7.95 magnitude quake in the Santa Cruz Islands last February, I am thinking that there is a potential for a quake of at least 8.5 magnitude in size in the near future.

Since the distance between these three recent quakes spans about 1,800 Kilometers or 1,125 miles, and the middle quake is located where two fault lines meet, it is possible that a double event could be set off producing two quakes of around 8.0-8.5 magnitude (or one event larger than 8.5 magnitude).

Normally, using astrology to find potential quake dates or windows in time, I have much less of an idea of where such quakes will occur. This time I think that I know the likely whereabouts but only a general idea (say within a few days to a few months) of when.

Looking at earthquakes starting in 1906 to the present that have occurred in the same area as the three recent 6.5-7.0 magnitude events, I found that there had been 17 shocks of 7.75 or larger there. The strongest was of magnitude 8.2 in 1996. Some areas such as California are limited by the seismic nature of its fault system to quakes no larger than that, but I suspect that the New Guinea area is capable of temblors much more severe. They have not seen an 8.3 magnitude or larger quake in the modern era and it is impossible to know if or when such may have occurred. Its very isolation makes determinations of magnitudes iffy for events prior to 1935 and many before 1900, even large ones, have gone unrecorded. Its long term tectonic history is a mystery unlike such countries as Italy, Japan, or China which all have a long historical seismic record.

Is the area in and around Papua New Guinea due for a mid 8 magnitude or larger event in the near future? We will just have to wait and see.. Oh, and I just started reading that Ray Bradbury book so please don't spoil it for me (although I suspect the outcome won't be less than disastrous).



Five earthquakes of 7.73 magnitude or greater for 1914 to 1996 in the western portion of New Guinea (four in Irian Jaya, Indonesia).  One of the recent significant quakes (green pin) is also shown.
Five earthquakes of 7.73 magnitude or greater for 1914 to 1996 in the western portion of New Guinea (four in Irian Jaya, Indonesia). One of the recent significant quakes (green pin) is also shown.
The less active central zone is shown here with a single 8.0 magnitude quake from 1906 and one of three significant quakes (green pin) from early in 2013.
The less active central zone is shown here with a single 8.0 magnitude quake from 1906 and one of three significant quakes (green pin) from early in 2013.
The most active eastern zone is shown here with ten earthquakes of 7.75-8.1 magnitude from 1916 to 2000 and one significant quake of 6.5 magnitude (green pin) from 4/14/2013.
The most active eastern zone is shown here with ten earthquakes of 7.75-8.1 magnitude from 1916 to 2000 and one significant quake of 6.5 magnitude (green pin) from 4/14/2013. | Source

© 2013 Joseph Ritrovato

Comments

Submit a Comment

  • tomstravels profile image

    Thomas Caton 4 years ago from the business end of a strong wind

    awesome information, I saw a documentary recently about a series of quakes in Turkey over the last century or so, and how they're now using the data to predict where the next quake will hit exactly and what magnitude it will be. The only thing they can't say for sure is when, which is a shame, but I'll be interested in the scientific implications when it does happen

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Thanks for your comment tomstravels,

    It would be more practical trying to pin down a likely location for a large earthquake in Turkey than many other places since their historical earthquake record extends back about 2,000 years (while New Guinea's pretty much begins in the year 1900).

    After the 9.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan in March 2011 it was proposed that the last time such a quake had occurred of such magnitude and in the same location was way back in July 869 AD. Of course when looking back in time, one can see with wide 20-20 vision, but looking forward we usually have blinders on and things look a bit fuzzy. How those seismologists are likely trying to predict an upcoming large quake in Turkey is by looking at all the seismic gaps where, after reviewing perhaps hundreds of years of data, no earthquake has occurred for a long time. They would also look as far back as they could till they found a quake occurring in the gap area and then look even further back for another one in the same location. If they can find a series of similar sized quakes over time they can determine the periodicity and get a general idea of when the next occurrence will be.

    Unfortunately, cycles don't ebb and flow exactly in the seismic world. If the periodicity is 200 years, the quake could occur anywhere from say 140 to 260 years following the last one. If there appears to be more shocks of significance clustering in a concentrated area of a seismic gap, a larger quake may be ready to occur there. And that is what I believe is happening in New Guinea.

    But since the historical record is scanty there, I'm basing my forecast on earthquakes that outline a gap that has existed only since the year 1900. I don't know if quakes of over 8.2 magnitude are likely there, but the gap and the small historical record would imply that such is the case. Unfortunately, any quake over that threshold could have happened 200 years ago, in which case a quake in the above 8.5 magnitude range may be another 100 years or so off.

    However, the recent activity there, and nowhere else, for 6.5 magnitude and larger events for the world since March 10th, seem to send a strong signal that a rare event or one on a very large scale is heading in that direction.

  • tomstravels profile image

    Thomas Caton 4 years ago from the business end of a strong wind

    Interesting, a field that relies on historical averages and vague (until confirmed) hints, and they still imprisoned those seismologists in Italy, or were they actually seismologists? One might have been a physicist... Seems a little unfair.

    As you say the wheres aren't difficult to pinpoint, but the when could vary by a threshold of 100 years and up.

    As I remember it, the scientists in Turkey were working on a theory that the quakes were moving west along the faultline, I think what they were saying was that as pressure was released at one point it was effectively being transferred further down the line. They used data from the first two quakes that had sufficient data for their purposes, fed it through their software to "predict" the location of the next quakes (which had already occurred), which it did - and nailed their locations.

    Whether or not their theories would apply to all earthquakes I'm not sure. The faultline in Turkey may prove them right but they did say that this exact behaviour could be anomalous, nice to think there's hope for the idea of accurate prediction systems though!

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    My guess is that those seismologists in Turkey were concentrating on moderate quakes of say 4.5-6.4 magnitude. Seismologists were doing the same thing trying to predict a quake in Parkfield, California. They didn't succeed. Periodicities are smaller with smaller quakes and thus the variance in the periodicity isn't as much. Plus they don't have to go as far back in time to look at the historical record.

    What happened in Italy I believe is fair, just unprecedented. It is my understanding that the convicted seismologists were guilty of hampering the efforts of a retired civil engineer who had predicted the quake based on radon levels in well water. I think that the scientists had the authorities threaten him with imprisonment for trying to create panic in the population. Those so called scientists were more interested in not rocking the boat and keeping secure in their positions than in getting at the truth.

    Also, those scientists in Italy are likely getting the best representation possible and appeals will tie things up for years. They probably won't see any prison time.

  • tomstravels profile image

    Thomas Caton 4 years ago from the business end of a strong wind

    Of course a fuller perspective always brings the truth to light, re: the Italians, I didn't know they'd actively dismissed and hindered somebody's efforts.

    The N.A. faultline quakes in question range from mid 6 to high 7, though I can't remember if those studying them are concerned with the whole lot.

    It's a field I have little knowledge of, but find very interesting, to think - how much the study of earthquakes furthered our understanding of the inner workings of our planet

  • retrojoe profile image
    Author

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: As most of you probably already know, there was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in the southern area of the Iran/Pakistan border region. That quake has likely killed dozens of people when it occurred at 10:44am, GMT on April 16, 2013. That has been the largest earthquake since the 7.95 magnitude one in the Santa Cruz Islands (part of the Solomon Islands) in the south Pacific back on February 6, 2013. The February 6 quake fell within one of my seismic windows, but the Iranian/Pakistani earthquake did not occur within any of my windows so it would appear to be a random event unrelated to astrology. Also apparently random was a 6.5 or 6.6 magnitude event on the north coast of New Guinea, also on April 16, 2013, but 10:55pm, GMT. This makes the 4th such quake of 6.5 to 7.0 magnitude that has hit the New Guinea region since March 10, 2013, and looks to be another likely indicator which is foretelling the occurrence of an 8.3 magnitude or larger earthquake in that area in the near future. It would also seem that such will be the case more likely sooner than later, based on the increasing frequency of these apparent pre-shocks as shown below:

    March 10, 2013 to April 6, 2013 (26.26 days)

    April 6, 2013 to April 14, 2013 (7.875 days)

    April 14, 2013 to April 16, 2013 (2.90 days)

    If the trend continues, there should be at least another pre-shock within the seismic window that we are presently situated in (it began at 6am, GMT on April 17 and ends at 6pm, GMT on April 18). Or it could be a main shock in the over 8.0 magnitude range (or both a pre-shock and main shock). If the larger event doesn't occur then it may wait till the next seismic window, a considerably large one of two weeks in duration beginning on April 21, 2013.

Click to Rate This Article