Stacey Solomon Odds to Win X Factor 2009 (Series 6)

Stacey Solomon, a 19-year-old amateur pop singer and single mother, has made it to judges' houses on the latest season of X Factor. The official YouTube postings of some of Stacey's performances are included below this article. She is certainly a favorite to go on to the public voting rounds and continue on deep into the competition. But does she deserve her spot as a favorite? And what are the odds that Solomon will actually win X Factor? For the reasons stated below, I think Stacey has a very slim chance of winning.

For her first audition, Stacey came out looking very sexy and bubbly but sort of ditzy at the same time. She comes across as what you might call an airhead. But she's cute at the same time. Like Simon said, I was also very surprised when she opened her mouth and started singing. She did what sounded like the Eva Cassidy version of "What a Wonderful World." And I must say she hit some beautiful notes in there very reminiscent of Eva Cassidy. By the way, you should check out Eva Cassidy on YouTube if you haven't. She never became famous before her death but is an amazing singer, and she's getting millions of hits to her old videos purely by word of mouth.

Anyway, I was very happy with that first performance of "What a Wonderful World." After she got through to the Bootcamp Stage 1, she presumably sang a different kind of song. This apparently didn't go as well as her first one (the importance of which I will discuss below), but she was passed through to the next round and had the chance to perform in Stage 2.

In Stage 2 of Bootcamp, Stacey performed "There You'll Be," the Faith Hill song that was also featured on the soundtrack of Pearl Harbor. This was a step down from her initial audition but still a fairly nice performance, but this is when I started to get doubts about Stacey's chances of winning X Factor. Let's face it. She is super sexy, and there's no way she is not getting picked for the live voting rounds. It reminds me a lot of Kellie Pickler on the fifth season of American Idol. It is ratings candy that a show like this and a guy like Simon Cowell are not going to pass up. But does she really have the goods to win?

Well, what we have seen so far is that Stacey appears to be a one-trick pony. She stated before her second song that she picked "There You'll Be" because she thought it was a good fit for her. I would bet they edited out her second song because it was an up-tempo song that showed her weaknesses. She then went back to her safe zone with a good but uncreative version of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow." Just like Kellie Pickler's major weaknesses in live singing quickly started to show in voting rounds, I predict the same will happen with Stacey Solomon.

Versatility is a key element in winning these shows that throw multiple genres at the contestants, and there is no reason to believe that Stacey has any kind of real versatility. I may be wrong, but the record suggests otherwise.

She has been given the best possible edit and made the object of sympathy with her "single teenage mom" backstory. And her charming personality and sexy bod will still get her deep into the competition. But there are simply much better singers this 6th season of X Factor. Danyl Johnson, Jamie Archer, Nicole Lawrence, Rikki Loney, and Treyce Cohen are all better. Stacey will probably outlast some of them, as upsets always happen on these shows. But I don't think she has the pipes to outlast all of them. My best guess is that her lack of versatility will show, and it will not be enough to build a sufficient fan base to take her to the end.

In short, I place Stacey Solomon's odds of winning X Factor at no more than 10%. She looks like the total package, but she doesn't sing like the total package. While the best singer doesn't always win, the winner is usually more versatile than Stacey, and that will be her downfall this season of X Factor.

Update For October 4, 2009:

As expected, Stacey has been selected for the voting rounds on X Factor. She is in the Girls' Group with Danny Minogue. Now, let's find out if this girl can do anything but slow ballads.