The Smash Purge: Who Survives the Next Roster Cut?

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was released on December 7th, 2018. Under the mantra that "everyone is here", the game featured every playable character from past Smash Bros. games, and several new characters (many via paid DLC).

We're nearing seven years since the release of that game and one has to wonder when the next release in the series will happen. It is possible that Ultimate could be given a "Nintendo Switch 2" version which may improve performance and maybe add another couple of characters for fun, but its also possible that a brand new Smash Bros. game could be in development.

With a new game, comes the possibility the series undergoes a "soft reboot" to update or change up some of its core gameplay. In this event, the likelihood is strong that many of the characters that appear in Ultimate will not be playable in this new game, either because of contractual limitations, moveset redundancies or simply because they aren't popular or noteworthy enough to warrant remaining playable. Below, I rank every playable Ultimate character on their chances of being playable in such a new game.

Note: From this point on, the next Smash game will be referred to as "Smash 6" until such a game is actually announced, at that point that placeholder will be replaced with the announced title. If a deluxe or special version of Smash Bros. Ultimate releases for the Switch 2 instead, this article will remain as written.

The following characters will absolutely be in Smash 6, there's no question about it.

Mario: Of course, Nintendo's most well known character of their most popular franchise will be playable in the new game.

Donkey Kong: Headlining the first 3D platformer exclusive to Switch 2 (Donkey Kong Bananza), DK will surely be back, likely sporting his updated look from that game.

Link: Outside of Mario, The Legend of Zelda is Nintendo's next biggest franchise. Link will likely be wearing his "standard" Tears of the Kingdom outfit as seen in promotional art unless, somehow, another "main" Zelda game releases before Smash 6.

Samus: I am tempted to move Samus down a tier, but the relatively recent release of Metroid Dread and the upcoming Metroid Prime 4 convinces me she's a lock for Smash 6.

Yoshi: This dino is a bit of an enigma. Sure, Yoshi gets the occasional game now and then, and was prominent in the recent Super Mario Bros. Wonder game, but at the same time you just feel like Yoshi is just kind of there, not really among the big time players but there's nothing to suggest Yoshi is any level below them either. I think Yoshi is guaranteed to come back even if I don't really have any good reason as to why.

Kirby: Kirby and the Forgotten Land was a particularly successful Kirby game and it seems like there's always a new game with Kirby as the lead coming out with relative frequency.

Pikachu: Despite any missteps one may think the Pokemon franchise has gone through in recent years, it still remains a massively popular IP, and Pikachu remains its most popular Pokemon.

Luigi: Not as popular as his brother obviously, but any character compilation game that features Mario is practically guaranteed to include Luigi as well.

These characters are almost assuredly back, but there may be a hangup or two that could mean they may not return, especially if the series drastically reduces its roster.

Fox: Star Fox, as a series, is quite dead. Despite being one of the original Super Smash Bros. characters, I wonder if a series reboot via Smash 6 is a good time to drop characters from seemingly now-dormant IPs. If that's not the case, then sure, Fox will probably be back.

Ness: The Mother series is also dead (albeit on purpose, seemingly), and Ness has only been a main character in one of those games, thirty years ago. Is that enough to still warrant his return?

Captain Falcon: F-Zero isn't quite as dead (F-Zero 99, a battle royale racer exclusive to Nintendo Switch Online members, was released not that long ago), but the same questions face Falcon.

Peach: I almost put Peach on Tier 1, but depending on how slim they would make Smash 6's roster, Mario and Luigi may be all the reps the Mario series may get. That being said, Peach is almost, almost, a lock to return.

Bowser: With Bowser, I'm introducing a concept known as "Main Antagonist Is Boss-Only" aka "MAIBO". What I mean here is, depending on how the next Smash game wants to develop its story mode, it may make Bowser a boss-only character that isn't otherwise playable. Because of that possibility, I can't consider Bowser a Tier 1 character, but in all likelihood he'll be playable again.

Zelda: Like with Peach, I almost considered putting Zelda in Tier 1 due to the recent release of Echoes of Wisdom, in which she is the playable character. There's also the upcoming live-action Zelda movie as well. I can't guarantee Princess Zelda coming back for Smash 6, though, I just don't feel like she's an absolute lock at this point. For the record, if she returns I think she'll be given her Echoes of Wisdom look (but on a properly proportioned body).

Ganondorf: See Bowser (MAIBO), but if he does return maybe THIS time they'll give him an unique moveset!

Marth: The number of Fire Emblem reps in Smash have become a source of contention in recent years, especially since no less than three characters made their debuts in the series with the intent to shill their respective Fire Emblem game. Undoubtedly there will be at least one Fire Emblem rep in the next game, likely two. Will Marth, the original Fire Emblem protagonist, be one of them? Its not guaranteed.

Pit: After a brief revival on the 3DS, it doesn't seem like the Kid Icarus IP is active anymore. Pit is more at risk than other inactive IP characters as he didn't debut in the Smash series until Brawl, making losing him more of an acceptable option, yet I still think he's a good shot to return.

Wario: I'm very tired of WarioWare as a series. I think many others are as well. After all, there hasn't been a proper Wario platformer in over 15 years. Would that be enough to exclude Wario from Smash 6? Like with Peach, if the number of reps per series is drastically minimized (and I'm aware Wario is technically classified as being his own series which is... WarioWare), Wario could be cut, but I doubt it since the higher-ups at Nintendo clearly are not tired of WarioWare.

Diddy Kong: If the Donkey Kong series is to have more than one rep, I don't believe Diddy Kong is the next option in line anymore thanks to Bananza, but I don't think they'd drop this Kong off the roster.

Olimar: Pikmin has continued to receive an occasional release or remaster. Main reason why I think Olimar isn't Tier 1 is because its possible (albeit unlikely) he could be replaced with a different Pikmin character, though it would be tough to replace him with Pikmin 4's create-a-character lead.

Villager: Maybe not this specific character, maybe the "Mayor" version from Animal Crossing: New Horizons instead, but I'm betting the Animal Crossing series will have at least one playable representative along these lines.

Inkling: Splatoon is alive and (probably) well. Maybe they replace Inkling with something from Splatoon 3 specifically, but I do think the series gets at least one rep in the next game.

King K. Rool: Not to imply spoilers, but as I mentioned with Diddy Kong, if the Donkey Kong series does get a second rep again, K. Rool is officially next in line though there's that slim chance he could be MAIBO'd instead.

Isabelle: If the Villager/Mayor character doesn't become the Animal Crossing rep, Isabelle will, almost for sure.

These characters could come back under the right conditions but could be left on the outside under another, perhaps equal set of conditions.

Jigglypuff: I've always been annoyed that Jigglypuff was not just playable, but one of the "original 12" because it had a large (and annoying) presence in the Pokemon anime in the time. It has remained in each subsequent Smash game due to being one of the original 12 even as it no longer has any relevance outside of it. Smash 6, then, is a perfect opportunity to drop it once and for all.

Daisy: She was a Peach clone, er I mean, "echo" in Ultimate. Prior to that, Daisy's colors were just an alternate for Peach in Smash games. I suspect that'll be the case in Smash 6 even if Daisy herself has become more prominent (notably, being a playable character in Super Mario Bros. Wonder).

Falco: I dropped Fox down a tier, I drop Falco down a tier for the same reason. I think he's next in line if Star Fox were to get two reps again, though.

Young Link: After running around with three Links in Ultimate, I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to keep the number of playable Links in Smash 6 to just the one. Young Link still has a chance due to the continued popularity of the N64 Zelda games from which his design originates.

Mewtwo: Mewtwo is a Kanto Pokemon who has much more relevance in lore than Jigglypuff does, but has only appeared in two Smash games and the DLC of a third. I think if Game Freak decides to prioritize their Pokemon choices for the next Smash in a certain way (ie, newer releases), Mewtwo could easily get the chop.

Mr. Game & Watch: Game & Watch is one of several "retro throwback" characters who are present because of what they represent to Nintendo the company rather than them being popular or in demand. For the upcoming Smash game, which may look to modernize its roster, would such characters like Game & Watch have any room to come back? If so, I think Game & Watch would be a top choice but there's no guarantee of that.

Meta Knight & King Dedede: I'm including them both in the same paragraph because they're in the same situation. Kirby, the series, was originally the child of Masahiro Sakurai, who also has been directly involved in the Smash Bros. series. However, what if Sakurai isn't involved in Smash 6? The next director may not be so keen in bringing these two back. If Sakurai does come back? These two are guaranteed to return.

Ike: His chances of returning are dependent on how many Fire Emblem reps return. Ike is among the more popular characters from the series, but there will need to be at least three Fire Emblem characters: Marth, a rep from a new game (obviously), and then Ike. If there's only two Fire Emblem reps, I don't think Ike usurps Marth.

R.O.B.: Similar situation to Game & Watch but with a more infamous reputation. Honestly, I see scenarios where both Game & Watch and R.O.B. both come back, where neither do, and where just one of the two do. Its hard to predict.

Toon Link: This Link, based off his Wind Waker design, is the least likely of the three Links to return, but I think he's a more memorable Link than Young Link, which is why they are in the same tier. I find it very unlikely both Young and Toon Link return, but its probable that one of the two comes back.

Little Mac: I don't think Punch-Out is getting any new games any time soon. That said, Little Mac is unique (and retro) enough that I think he stands a decent chance of returning. Someone less optimistic may put him a tier lower than this, though.

Shulk: Monolift Soft has essentially developed or remade four Xenoblade Chronicles games for the Switch. Surely, you'd think they want to move on at this point, which would mean de-prioritizing Shulk in outside media, including Smash 6.

Bowser Jr.: I think Jr (and his seven Koopaling alts) could be left on the outside looking in if the MAIBO plan occurs but even if the likes of Bowser and Ganondorf become playable, I don't know if Jr has enough notoriety to survive the roster cut.

Ridley: Yes, MAIBO, but I think his chances of returning depends somewhat on whether he appears in Metroid Prime 4 since he didn't appear in Dread (though honestly, for Prime 4's sake, I hope he doesn't return there).

Certain circumstances (ie, new game, roster size still big) may allow these characters to come back, but if those circumstances don't occur I don't see it happening.

Dark Samus: Even if it comes back in Metroid Prime 4, Dark Samus (an echo of Samus in Ultimate) may be relegated to be a Samus alt if it returns at all.

Ice Climbers: The Climbers are not popular enough characters outside of Smash to warrant their continued inclusions, especially given their unique mechanics. If a roster cut and/or new director occur, they're likely out.

Sheik: Sheik remains an Ocarina of Time only character in a series with lots of entries, and no later incarnation of Zelda takes this form. If the number of Zelda slots becomes more limited, Sheik is an easy cut.

Dr. Mario: I hesitate to put the doc down this far. Honestly, the fact he is playable in as many Smash games as he is proves he's quite popular, at least in certain circles. Even so, given the large amount of possible characters that could be chosen nowadays, "Mario but in a lab coat!" may not cut it anymore.

Pichu: A joke character and mostly irrelevant to boot.

Lucina: A Marth "echo" with a singular gameplay difference isn't enough to warrant her return.

Roy: Only path I see him returning is via a remake of his game which is highly unlikely.

Dark Pit: Probably relegated to a Pit alt at this point.

Zero Suit Samus: "Samus but with sex appeal (and no cool weapons)" was a not-great idea as a Samus gameplay gimmick idea in Brawl, and a very uninteresting character in Ultimate. I don't really see this version of Samus returning but you never know.

Pokemon Trainer: I don't see this character returning in its previous forms. Maybe if it utilizes Scarlet/Violet Pokemon (or whatever new gen Pokemon exist in the future) instead but I doubt it.

Lucas: More years have passed since Mother 3 was released, and critical reception to it has begun to wane. I believe the days where Mother gets a single rep (Ness), if that, are upon us again.

Lucario: Well, you never know with Game Freak, but I think this Pokemon's prime is long past.

Wolf: Someone on the dev team or Nintendo's board of directors would have to be a big Star Fox fan to force this through, otherwise I can't really see it.

Rosalina: She has been losing relevance to the likes of Daisy and Pauline. That time she was a secret playable character in Super Mario 3D World seems like ages ago.

Greninja and Incineroar: People talk about Fire Emblem reps being shill picks, but Pokemon is guilty of it too with, well, Jigglypuff being the earliest example, but these two are up there as well. If Game Freak goes down that route again, that leaves these two in the gutter.

Mii: I think they come back only if Nintendo uses them as their "you can make other characters with our avatars that can not look like those other characters" gimmick again, but something tells me that won't be the case in a rebooted game like Smash 6 potentially may be.

Palutena: With Kid Icarus in hibernation again, I doubt any characters outside of Pit return.

Robin: Probably as unlikely as more recent Fire Emblem protags but Robin is from Awakening, the game that put Fire Emblem on the map for many people, and Robin has a unique moveset to boot. Still find their return very unlikely, but still better than a couple of others.

Duck Hunt: Unless Nintendo throws out a sudden "Duck Hunt with the Switch 2 mouse!" curveball out of nowhere, this is probably not a likely "retro throwback" character to return.

Min Min: If Nintendo wanted to push ARMS, the game Min Min is from, we'd probably of seen another game or even just "ARMS: Nintendo Switch 2 Edition" by now, wouldn't we? I'm thinking the series, and Min Min's chances, are sunk.

Pyra and Mythra: See Shulk, but these two are less likely given their game (Xenoblade Chronicles 2) isn't as popular, and the two were only DLC characters to start with.

I'm only willing to say this about a few characters but I think there's absolutely no way the following characters return under any circumstance.

Chrom: This guy is an echo of Roy, who in turn was essentially a clone of Marth. Given his chances of returning are dependent on Roy and maybe even Robin returning, and that there are several more likely choices for a thinning selection of Fire Emblem reps, I think he's as good as gone.

Wii Fit Trainer: Its more likely a character from Fitness Boxing becomes a playable character in Smash 6 than a character with "Wii" in its name in 2025 or beyond, and I am pretty sure Fitness Boxing will receive zero playable reps in Smash 6.

Corrin and Byleth: Both DLC characters in their debut Smash games, both shill picks for the newest/most recent Fire Emblem release. With Fire Emblem Engage out, and another new entry likely before Smash 6, I don't see a way for either of them to come back. Maybe, maybe if Sakurai goes "Smash Bros. just needs 10 Fire Emblem characters!", but that's not happening.

Piranha Plant: A very odd choice of character, let alone making it a day 1 bonus character turned standalone DLC character. Otherwise a generic Super Mario enemy, there's no way Plant comes back as a playable.

Third party characters (characters from non-Nintendo companies that publish games on other platforms i.e. Sega) are in this section because whether are not they return are wholly dependent on those companies giving the okay for them to return, which isn't something to count on. Even so, I'll note which tier each character roughly belongs in.

Snake (Tier 5): No chance Konami loans Snake out again, even with the remake of Metal Gear Solid 3 (not on Switch/Switch 2) on the horizon.

Sonic (Tier 2): I almost want to put Sonic in Tier 1, but I can't guarantee Sega will loan him out again especially if Smash 6 takes a different turn.

Mega Man (Tier 4): Capcom seems to ignore franchises that aren't Monster Hunter or Resident Evil, moreso nowadays, but never say never for Mega Man.

Pac-Man (Tier 3): Namco has helped develop the last two Smash Bros. games, so it wasn't any problem for them to include Pac-Man in those games. If they help with development again, Pac-Man is probably Tier 1 in that scenario, but if they don't, then he's Tier 5. Thus, it averages out.

Ryu (Tier 2): Oh, I forgot, Capcom still loves Street Fighter! More than that, they love collaborating Ryu into everything, including Smash Bros.

Ken (Tier 4): Ken, not so much, especially if Smash goes away from clones, er, echo fighters. Capcom would rather shill out Chun-Li instead, albeit maybe not for Smash Bros.

Cloud (Tier 4): I almost want to put Cloud in Tier 5 given how messed up Square Enix is as a company right now, but they are working on a port of FFVII Remake (or Rebirth, I don't know) for Switch 2, so I guess this is still possible even if unlikely.

Bayonetta (Tier 4): I think the Bayonetta series is done, but most of the games were Nintendo-exclusive at least for a time. That may be enough to bring her back for another round.

Simon and Richter (Tier 5): Konami again, I honestly don't trust them at all with anything at this point, especially the Castlevania IP.

Joker (Tier 5): Yes, new Persona 5 stuff is STILL coming out, but I think the time to shill Joker has passed. Perhaps by Smash 6's release there may finally be info on Persona 6 and Persona 5 may finally be put to rest until its eventual early-2030s remake.

Hero (Tier 4): Depends on the timing of the release of the long-awaited Dragon Quest XII (whose Hero I assume would be the default appearance of any potential Smash character). This is Square Enix we're talking about still, so can't get your hopes up.

Banjo & Kazooie (Tier 5): It seemed like the bear and bird only appeared in Ultimate due to it being a celebration of gaming or whatever BS they were coming up with. I am fairly certain Microsoft won't loan these two out again (or do anything with them ever).

Terry (Tier 5): It seemed like Terry was added as a personal request from Sakurai given how he gushed over Terry in his DLC character reveal trailer. Don't think Sakurai will get to do that again even if he comes back for the next Smash game.

Steve and Alex (Tier 3): Steve and Alex are appearing in Sonic Racing: Cross Worlds of all things, so I suppose its possible they return for the next Smash (especially given how dominant they are in Ultimate's competitive scene).

Sephiroth (Tier 4): Basically same reasoning (and chances) as Cloud. Don't think its an "either both or neither" situation, though. Under the (unlikely) presumption Cloud returns its likely Sephiroth doesn't (or maybe even gets MAIBO'd instead).

Kazuya (Tier 5): Same reasoning as Terry. Even if Namco helps with development I don't think he'll return.

Sora (Tier 5): Kingdom Hearts, the series, seems to be generally wrapping up, and Square Enix doesn't seem content on really marketing whatever Kingdom Hearts 4 is supposed to be.