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Major Report: 2nd Wave of Covid-19.

Updated on July 14, 2020

The first wave of COVID-19 has been bad enough. 45,000 or thereabout, have paid the price of this terrible disease, from all walks of life, race, faith, nationality, class, etc. However, the main victims, are BAME people, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions. Those on the front line in the NHS, treating COVID patients, have paid a high price, for their service, like soldiers, in a war. A war between human beings and a vicious, dangerous, virus.

We all by now should know the story, of how the virus broke out, Wuhan, China. How this virus spread all over the world, killing and hospitalising thousands of people, as it went. Some countries have been utterly devastated by the virus, mainly the poorest. While others, have faced up to the virus and had fewer deaths and infections.

The UK is up there with the United States and Brazil, with a runaway number of deaths. Whereas Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Germany, etc, have fewer deaths and infections. New Zealand, under Prime Minister, Arden, is a nation that has also, had, very few infections and deaths. Why? It took the drastic action of shutting its borders to outsiders and even, fellow, New Zealanders, stranded, abroad. As soon as the nation (having declared itself cautiously victorious over COVID) opened its borders again, the r rate spiked. Other nations too, to their cost, have found that lifting the lockdown too early, can cause the virus, to come back, thus going back into lockdown.

Although it seems in the UK, the overall number of deaths and infections is falling, the rate of deaths, over the weekend and onto this week, spiked at 148. Leicester, is one English city, that has been quarantined, because of a spike in the r rate. It would seem localised lockdowns could happen as opposed to a national lockdown. It seems many towns and cities in the north and midlands, could entertain high concentrations for COVID. What do these cities and towns have in common? Large ethnic communities, the Asian community, where families live in entire ghettos. Families are the nucleus of the British Asian community and so the virus would spread quicker. Asians are along with blacks, the elderly and those with certain illnesses, are sad to say, more susceptible to the infection. Hence, Leicester (which has a high Asian population) being locked down. Northern towns and cities like Burnley, Preston, Oldham, Bradford, Leeds, etc could be potential local lockdowns. The Asian population in these areas has been warned about their social activities and to take the appropriate measures to protect themselves.

A report commissioned by the government's chief scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance, is warning of a second, COVID, wave. The report though speculative, suggests, that 120,000 people could die, if there is a second, wave. The Johnson administration, however, has said, this report is just what might happen, and is, not, a prediction.

However, the government go on to say, that, they are preparing for the worst-case scenario, anyway. The report, however, does not take into account proposed deaths in the community, care homes, etc.

If such a scenario of a second wave (God forbid) manifested, the UK would go back into lockdown, forthwith. Obviously, BLM pro/anti protests, beach gatherings, pub, restaurant and cafe gatherings and illegal music gatherings have not helped the r rate, that currently stands at 0.7. In the supposed eventuality, of a second wave, the r rate would rise, exponentially.

The government have announced from 24 July, it is mandatory, for people entering shops, to wear face coverings. This has already been the policy in Scotland. The UK started out with a combined lockdown policy in dealing with Coronavirus. However, as the lockdown is lifted, the four nations that make up the UK, are going it alone, on lifting the lockdown.

Finally, as for, the future of COVID, lockdown, etc, not only in the UK but abroad, too, I would not like to venture a guess. The future of COVID and its effects is nothing to be Nostradamus about, as things in this scenario, change so quickly.


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