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More Earthquakes than Usual Early in the New Year?

Updated on December 31, 2012

December was pretty much a typical month seismically as I expected. There were 3 quakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater in the last month of 2012. There was also a quake that most authorities agree was a 6.4 magnitude quake off the western coast of Baja California. However, it is my understanding that this figure, converted to moment magnitude or Mw, was done from an estimate of 6.3 Ms. ISC in the UK assigns it a 6.5 Ms value, so I am inclined to think that it could actually have more likely been a 6.5 or even a 6.6 on the Mw scale if someone were to give it a second look.

Of the three quakes that NEIC has as being of 6.5 or greater in magnitude, two fell within my predicted window time ranges where I felt earthquakes would be more likely. That is actually not too surprising because my windows, based primarily on the average astrological aspect value ratings for that month, took up an estimated 52.4% of the time during that 31 day month. Statistically, the most likely scenario would be that two quakes would fall within my windows if there were only 3 quakes in the 6.5 or larger magnitude range occurring during that month.

Of the few windows that I defined prior to the month, the last one of 11.5 days was the longest. A 7.3 magnitude quake near Japan did fall within an 89 hour window of mine, but then a 7.1 magnitude event in the Banda Sea occurred between that window and the next one. After that quake and before the start of the next super sized window, I wrote another hub trying to narrow down the possibilities and suggested that the window could be broken into several smaller parts. The first one would be for 4 days at the start of the 11.5 window (within which the Baja California quake occurred), a 21 hour window centered at 21h43m,GMT on the 21st or just 45 minutes before a 6.7 magnitude quake occurred in the Vanuatu area of the south Pacific, followed by two small windows of 4 hours and 6 hours on the 22nd and 24th respectively.

The four windows within the larger 11.5 window came out to 5 days and 7 hours. If those windows were substituted for the larger one the total time frame of the predicted windows would come out to less than 30% of the 31 days in December. Using that smaller period, one would expect only 1 quake of the 3 quakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater to fall within them. Since there were 2 such quakes within the alternate window areas, the results would be about twice what would be expected statistically.

Since I had excellent results in September with narrower windows and the results were again very good for December 2012 when I reverted to more refined windows, I have decided to do the same for January 2013.

But there is also something new I have to decided to try at the start of the new year. Instead of just looking at what astrological aspects seem to herald earthquakes, I am now looking at aspects between planets that seem to put the breaks on any earthquake potential (or coincide with periods when earthquakes are less likely to occur). So now, it isn't just those areas outside the windows that are less likely, but also when neutralizing aspect values intermix with aspect values that normally define high quake periods. In the graphic below you can see the trend line for just such a period of neutralization; the red lined spike later in the month of January 2013. Since its peak is located outside of my windows for earthquake potential, January 2013 doesn't appear to be a good example to test it out. February appears to be more interesting (as I will explain when it comes time to wrap things up for January 2013).

Here are the dates to look out for earthquake wise during January 2013:

  1. Lasting 6 days and 9 hours, the first window opens at 7h00m, GMT on 1/8 and closes at 16h00m, GMT on 1/14. The peak is at 13h40m, GMT on 1/9 (the midpoint is at 11h30m, GMT on 1/11).

  2. Lasting 24 hours, the second window opens at 00h00m, GMT on 1/19 and closes at 00h00m, GMT on 1/20. The peak is at 1h36m, GMT on 1/19 (the midpoint is at 12h00m, GMT on 1/19).

  3. Lasting 48 hours, the third window opens at the same time as the other one ends (which hints that an earthquake may be more likely then than at the peak of either window). Thus, the last window opens at 00h00m, GMT on 1/20 and closes at 00h00m on 1/22. The peak is at 6h45m, GMT on 1/21 (the midpoint is at 0h00m, GMT on 1/21).

And here are the most likely locations for any earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater that should fall within the above windows (the numbers of each location list corresponds to the numbers above). Each list is put in order from most likely to least likely with the exception of locations within the U.S. (which are always listed at the end).

  1. Tajikistan, Indonesia, Jamaica, Italy, Iran, China, Algeria, Yemen, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Hawaii, Alaska, New Hampshire, and California.

  2. Italy, Japan, Venezuela, Greece, Tajikistan, Spain, Algeria, California, and Alaska.

  3. Italy, Russia, Canada, Syria, Chile, Kyrgyzstan, Tajihistan, California, and Alaska.

With the windows lasting a total of 9 days and 9 hours, they comprise 30% of the month of January 2013. I am expecting there to be at least 5 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater for the month, with at least 2 falling within my windows, but more likely 3. If the later it would be twice what statistics would say was the most probable scenario (1 or 2 quakes out of 5).

Copyright © 2012 Joseph W. Ritrovato


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  • retrojoe profile image

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Final January 2012 Earthquake Update: Did so much updating of my parameters used for prediction that I caught a few new errors that I'd made and realized that my first update for this hub was more accurate than my 2nd. Here we go one last time (total time: 8 days, 13.75 hours or 27.65% of the month):

    Window 1: Opens 1615 GMT on 1/6/12, closes 1400 GMT on 1/14/12 (midpoint 1407 GMT on 1/10/12; 1st peak 1330 GMT on 1/9/12, 2nd peak 1330 GMT on 1/13/12). Total time: 7 days, 19.75 hours.

    Possible locations (1st peak): Italy, Indonesia, Jamaica, Iran, Mexico, Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan, Ecuador/Chile/Colombia, Japan, Newfoundland; and in the USA: California, Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico. Possible locations (2nd peak): Ecuador, China, Cyrgyzstan, Canada, Mexico, Russia; and for the USA: California, Alaska, Missouri, New Mexico.

    Window 2: Opens 1530 GMT on 1/19/12, closes 0130 GMT on 1/20/12 (midpoint/peak: 2030 GMT on 1/19/12). Total time: 10 hours.

    Possible locations: Japan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Indonesia, Colombia, Italy; and in the USA: California, Alaska, off the southern coast of Oregon, and Kansas.

    Window 3: Opens 0355 GMT on 1/21/12, closes 1200 GMT on 1/21/12 (midpoint/peak: 0755 GMT 1/21/12). Total time: 8 hours.

    Possible locations: Costa Rica, Kyrgyzstan, Colombia, Iran, Taiwan, India, Italy; and in the USA: California, Ohio, Oregon Coast, Alaska.

  • retrojoe profile image

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    New List of Earthquake Forecast Parameters: I've added more astrological aspects to both my list of earthquake enhancers and neutralizers that determine my value numbers which define the periods of greatest or least potential for earthquakes. The difference for January is so much that I am again updating my dates and locations when earthquakes should be more likely. The first window is about half the width it was before and the other two windows are about 4 times bigger than they were. The last two windows also run back-to-back now, so that they are more like one larger window with two peaks within it. Where they join each other is also a likely time for an earthquake. The total of all three windows equals 8 days or 25.8% of the month (was 24.5% with my last update). Here is the new data (set for Greenwich Mean Time):

    Window 1: Opens 1/8.5/2012, closes 1/12.0/2012 (midpoint 1/10.25/12, peaks 1345 GMT on 1/9/12).

    Possible locations: Indonesia, Jamaica, Iran, Tajikistan, China, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Italy, Colombia; and in the USA: Alaska, California, New Mexico, Hawaii, New Hampshire.

    Window 2: Opens 1/17.5/2012, closes 1/21.0/2012 (midpoint 1/19.25/12, peaks 0140 GMT on 1/19/12).

    Possible locations: Kyrgyzstan/Tajikstan, Indonesia, Algeria, Costa Rica/Peru/Chile/Colombia,

    Italy/Bulgaria, Japan/Taiwan, Portugal/Morocco/Spain; and in the USA: Alaska, California, North Dakota, Southern coast of Oregon, Montana.

    Window 3: Opens 1/21.0/2012, closes 1/22.0/2012 (midpoint 1/21.5/12, peaks 0640 GMT on 1/21/12).

    Possible locations: Costa Rica/Colombia/Peru, Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan, Italy, Taiwan, Canada, India, Iran, Indonesia; and in the USA: California, Alaska, Nebraska, Oregon Coast.

  • retrojoe profile image

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update (for possible locations): Related to my last comment that refined the dates for the earthquake forecast for the first month of 2013, I have also tweaked my methods enough that a better list of possible locations of these quakes has been created; here it is:

    Window 1: Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikstan, India, Iran, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Argentina. In the U.S., Alaska and California are the most likely but also on the list are New Mexico and North Dakota.

    Window 2: Kyrgyzstan, Costa Rica, Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia, Portugal, Morocco, Spain, Azerbaijan, Italy, Bulgaria, Iran. In the U.S., Alaska and California are again at the top of the list but other possibilities are North Dakota and off the southern coast of Oregon.

    Window 3: Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Costa Rica, Colombia, Taiwan, India, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia. Possibilities in the U.S. are in California, Alaska, and lesser possibilities in Ohio, Nebraska, and Hawaii.

  • retrojoe profile image

    Joseph Ritrovato 4 years ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Weather Update: I rushed my hub related to earthquake forecasting for Jaunuary 2013. As a result, when I went over my figures I realized that I had to repost the dates and times to make things right. Here is the new info:

    Window 1: Opens 0630UT on 1/8, closes 1800UT on 1/14 (midpoint at 1215UT on 1/11) peaks 1400UT on 1/8 (6 days 12 hours 30 minutes wide). Window 2: Opens 0140UT on 1/19, closes 2130UT on 1/19 (midpoint at 1135UT on 1/19) peaks 0500UT on 1/19 (19h50m wide). Window 3: Opens 0200UT on 1/21, closes 0800UT on 1/21 (6 hours wide). Total time period of all three windows is 7 days 14 hrs 20 minutes or 24.5% of the month of January.