- Personal Finance
Find The Next Stock Winner
Insights Into the Future
Anyone who invests in the Stock Market has probably lived with many "If only I had", and "If only I had not". It's the way of the market. Most of us can't predict the future..or can we?
While our technology is changing daily, the way that people react to new ideas, and fads is not. When you look at trends of the past and how people responded to them, it is fun to try to predict THE NEXT BIG WINNER...
To try to get an idea of what that will be, first think about how our everyday stuff became popular in the past. What lasted, and what faded away?
Then think about what is popular now, and what is just coming up, but hasn't widely caught on yet. Research companies that are working on it now. Guess what?, you just might find that $10.00 stock that will turn into the next Apple.
Cassette Tapes, CD's, iPods, iPhones
According to Wikipedia, the mass production of "Cassette tapes" began in the mid 1960's. The first tapes did not have good sound quality though, and most people stuck with their records for music. In the car, it was radio and 8-track tapes. In the 1970's cassette tapes began to be used in cars. They really caught on during the 1980's, though, when everyone wanted a "Walkman."(1)
The "Compact Disc" was invented in 1982 by researchers at Sony and Philips.(2) It wasn't until the early 1990's that CD's became widely popular. When they did, they quickly overtook the cassette for music listening. (Remember how irritating it was when was when cassettes would get caught in the car tape player!)
Today "iPhones and iPods" are everywhere, and it's hard to think of when they were not around. The iPod actually came out in 2001, and did not become widely popular until 2005. Like their predecessors, though, their time at the top seems to be coming to an end. Smart phones are taking their place.
The point of all of this is to show the long time interval between when a device first comes out, and when it becomes widely popular. Plenty of time to use your intuition and invest in that NEXT BIG STOCK WINNER!
Solar Power, Wind, Clean Coal?
For years we have been talking about more efficient energy use in our homes. There are places where wind has become popular for energy production. Wind power doesn't cost much once the equipment is in place, but it costs a lot to set the systems into production. General Electric (GE) has done a lot of work developing alternative energy solutions. According to their website, GE has done 13.800 wind turbine installations worldwide.
Solar energy also is becoming more popular, but installation remains too expensive for most of us. Will it get cheaper in the years to come? The company "First Solar"(FSLR) is a leader in this area. GE also has a solar division, along with many other smaller companies. There are kits available now to use solar power for only your water heater. This seems like a good way to start.
There is also talk about "clean coal." Coal gasification uses heat, steam, and pressure. The coal is then turned into a gas. Carbon dioxide is separated out, and clean burning hydrogen makes the electricity.(3) Some companies involved in this are: Duke Energy (DUK), GE, ConocoPhillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell (RSDA), Siemens (SI).
Are these companies stock prices going to take off in the coming years?
I believe there are a lot of things out there right now that have not nearly reached their peak. What are your ideas?
- 3D - 3D is already big, but has it reached it's peak? Think of 3D video conferences, Medical uses, education, etc. Texas Instruments (TXN) produces DLP technology, 3D for industrial, medical, consumer and other uses.(4)
- EBooks, EMagazines, ENewspapers - EReaders have become very popular in the last few years. They will become more popular though, as they are used in schools for textbooks, and more libraries loan EBooks. AMZN, BKS, SNE, AAPL,
- Virtual Glasses - Have you seen the wrap-around glasses that are in some catalogs? Wearing them you can watch movies on what looks like a 60 inch screen. Skymall.com has a pair of these made by Vuzix. I think as 3D catches on more, glasses like these will too.
- Hybrid Cars, and Alternative Fuels - Most car makers are now producing hybrids. GM has an electric car. Toyota, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai, all have models. In the future, I think they will become the norm. More types of alternative fuels will probably be offered. TM, F, GM
- "Big Box" Private Schools - More and more cities, and towns are having a hard time running their schools. My bet is that in the future there will be more franchised private schools.
- Very Low Calorie Foods - With obesity becoming more prevalent every year, I can see many more foods being marketed that contain almost no calories.
Robotic Devices, Electronic Home Management - With all the electronic devices we have, and also home monitoring and security, more middle class homes will be equipped with sophisticated home management systems that are now mainly for the wealthy. I also see more robotic devices for general home use.
What do you think will be the next trend that NO ONE can live without?
1. Wikipedia -Compact Cassette tapes
3. CNN.com, GE: Imagination at work
4. Texas Instruments - search 3D, 3D shape acquisition, 3D Opitical Metrology