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Aleppo On Brink Of Collapse.

Updated on February 9, 2016

Three Leaders Who Will Gain From Their Side Winning The War.

President Assad
President Assad | Source
Ayatollah Khamenei.
Ayatollah Khamenei. | Source
President Putin.
President Putin. | Source
Damascus, Syrian Capital.
Damascus, Syrian Capital. | Source

Thousands Of Refugees Stream Towards Turkey.

The fight for Aleppo is not going well for groups like the Free Syrian Army who are facing brutal air assault from the Russian airforce and murderous pounding from the Syrian Army.

Thousands of civilians possibly with some fleeing rebels too intermingled with the civilians are heading for the Turkish border to get out of the nightmarish situation they find themselves in caught between the fighting factions. Many civilians however have stayed but according to reports it is people loyal to Assad's regime and the Christian population according to BBC2's 'Newnight' was once 200,000 now its down to 20,000 despite many Pastors exhorting their people to stay.

The Russians have invested a lot in bailing out Assad and so they must win this war which if Aleppo fell would probably shorten the war which would then probably put Putin in a stronger position in dealing with Ukraine and Georgia and ultimately the West.

It would seem according to 'Al Jazeera' the Russians and Syrians were never serious about the peace talks with the other side which really achieved nothing recently in Geneva. If the war is won the Iranians an ally of Assad also would be happy as would some in the West, Turkey, the Russians and the Assad supporting Syrians in particular.

Tensions remain high between Russia and Turkey over the downing of their fighter plane and the Turks have had money thrown at them by the European Union to keep Syrian migrants from heading to western Europe as previous hordes of migrants have been causing tensions between Native Europeans and the newcomers. It would seem Turkey is keeping this latest flow of bedraggled humanity fleeing Aleppo at its border and only allowing the most sick and wounded into its territory but it is helping those Syrians who have set up camp at the Turkish - Syrian border.

Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia another country currently throwing its weight around in the region both in Syria and Yemen is at odds with Iran over who it backs in the Syrian war and Yemeni conflict and it would seem as I have reported before the Yemeni conflict in contrast to the Syrian war is not getting as much reportage.

If Aleppo falls it does not mean the war is won who knows but it could draw that day nearer when it is.

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      Commonsensethink 18 months ago

      Aleppo falling will prolong the war, but as Assad gains there, the chances are that he will lose the parts of Deir Ezzor (in the East of Syria) which he holds. Also a retreat from Raqqa to Deir Azzor (as its de facto capital) by ISIS isn't out of the question now that Raqqa's supply routes are being cut off by the Kurds.

      The other thing to remember with Aleppo - it isn't just the moderate Free Syria Army that is under attack there. The main enemy is seen as the Al-Nusra Front (the Syrian wing of Al Qaeda) whom the Western powers regard as terrorists, but are not attacking - the Russians have fewer qualms, as is also the case with the town of Idlib, which has been held by the Al-Nusra Front for the past few months.

      The Saudis (along with allies such as Jordan) look likely to play a hand with troops on the ground, though quite where? And the Turks are stuck with telling the Kurds not to cross the Euphrates to attack ISIS, while not wanting to be seen to be supporting ISIS.

      A mess?

      The peace talks are dead in the water though - for the next few months at least. Thousands more deaths, and thousands more refugees that Europe doesn't want to take, but may be obliged to!