An Anthology of Donald J. Trump's Presidency (updated 3/5/2017)
Not to understate things very much, it is fair to say President Donald Trump's first 30 days in office have not been pleasant ... for him or for Americans. Not a day, not one, has gone by without some sort of controversy. Some were serious, such as his travel ban of seven majority Muslim nations which was stopped by the courts or accusing President Obama of tapping his phones at Trump Tower which is what he opened March with. Others were not, such as his tweets about SNL. Whether you agree with him or not, President Trump and his administration has sucked the air out of all other news
(In full-disclosure, I am a liberal Republican by orientation (yes, we still exist), but registered Democrat so I can vote in primaries. I have voted for Nixon, Ford, Reagan, H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama, and now Hillary Clinton. My bias is to sensible fiscal conservationism and social liberalism. This translates to a believe that the gov't has a roll in helping its citizens but shouldn't break the bank doing it. While I do not personally like Donald Trump nor most of his policies, I will take a wait-and-see attitude toward his performance as President.)
President Donald Trump by the Numbers - Economy
The following set of charts depict how the economy is doing under the leadership of the Trump administration. Several metrics are used in order to take a detailed look at the many aspects of the American Economy
How Is the Economy Under President-Trump?Click thumbnail to view full-size
As important as how America is doing is how Americans are thinking. The next set of charts track a compilation of polls regarding how Americans perceive:
- The Direction of the Country
- President Trump's Favorability Ratings (what we think of him personally)
- President Trump's overall Job Approval Rating (how he is doing regardless of what we think about him)
- President Trump's Job Approval Rating regarding the economy
- President Trump's Job Approval Rating regarding how he is handling foreign policy
What Do Americans Think About President Trump?Click thumbnail to view full-size
The Donor Class - "Pay to Play"
Author's note - Donald Trump, Bernie supporters. and other Clinton opponents made a very Big deal about the access donors to the Clinton Foundation gained to the State Department. I argued there as no smoking gun there. In fact there was no gun at all because what went on between donors and access to government is the NORM, at all levels of government. It only crosses the line if some government official received some type of reward that had personal value; and in Clinton's case that never happened. Another no, no is if the requester got anything of value other than access.
To further that argument, I underlined those Trump picks, or those under consideration, who made huge contributions to Trump's campaign or the Republican Party. This is unadulterated Pay-To-Play; I give you lots of money to be elected and you give me a cabinet slot or ambassadorship, plain and simple.
Having said that, and while I disagree with the practice in general, I refuse to condemn someone for doing what has been done in politics since politics became a "thing". Trump (and Clinton) is doing nothing different than EVERY president-elect before him.
Your President-Elect Donald Trump
The Trump Advisors and Cabinet
The nomination and confirmation process is almost over. It has been a slow, arduous affair that is taking over 30 days to complete. The delay was an equal mix of the Democrats putting up a determined fight over some of Donald Trumps more controversial choices and the very poor job that was done vetting the candidates in the first place as well as getting proper clearance after they were in the confirmation process.
Only two nominations came down to the wire; Betsy De Vos for Education Secretary and Andy Puzder for Labor Secretary. It took Vice President Pence to push De Vos over the line by casting, for the first time ever, the tie-breaking vote because two Republicans had serious problems with her commitment to public education. Andy Puzder was forced to withdraw his nomination as his background of anti-labor rhetoric and actions, along with not paying taxes on illegal immigrants he employed.
The average number of Yes votes per candidate for Trump is 69 so far. The next lowest was President George W. Bush with 92 Yes Votes. Keep in mind, there are 52 Republicans in the Senate.
Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson (56 votes) , billionaire CEO of Exxon with long, friendly ties to Vladimir Putin. His politics are undetermined but is having trouble establishing himself because of in-fighting with Steve Bannon, senior political adviser, and Jared Kushner, senior adviser as well as President Trump's penchant for off-the-cuff foreign policy decisions.
Secretary of Defense, Gen. James Mattis (98 votes). General Mattis (Ret. USMC) is well thought of on both sides of the aisle. He surprised Trump by telling him waterboarding, torture, was useless and that he, Mattis, could do better with a pack of cigarettes and a couple of beers. Mattis is currently having issues getting his deputies through the White House. (Both of Trumps picks for Secretary of the Army and Navy withdrew because they couldn't get passed the conflict of interest review.)
Director of Homeland Security, Gen John Kelly (88 votes). General Kelly (Ret. USMC), like General Mattis, is a well respected, highly capable leader who is expected to do a superb, independent job in this critical position.
Attorney General, Sen. Jeff Sessions, (R-AL: 52 votes).an extreme conservative who is known to be anti-immigration, anti-Muslim, anti-LGBT. Sessions has extensive experience in this area but, because of his background of being not supportive of minorities, his appointment to a Federal judgeship was denied by the Republican Senate in 1986. There is much debate on whether is views have changed or not changed in the subsequent 30 years. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/us/politics/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-attorney-general.html During confirmation, he apparently gave false testimony to two Senators about not having meetings with the current Russian ambassador.
Secretary of Treasury, Steve Mnuchin (53 votes), a billionaire who worked for Goldman Sachs and was Trump's top campaign fundraiser.. Mnuchin seems to be more moderate than his boss regarding trade and China but is accused of lying under oath about robo-signing foreclosure paperwork as CEO of failed OneWestBank as well as failing to disclose $100 million in assets on his financial disclosure statements.
Secretary of Energy, Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX: 62 votes). While having experience running large organizations, Gov. Perry has no experience in the broad field of energy management which includes the oversight our nuclear arsenal and conducting state-of-the-art energy research (similar to DARPA in DoD). The previous two Secretaries were physicists, one a Nobel Laureate while Perry has a B.A. in animal husbandry with a 2.0 GPA.
Secretary of Labor. Currently unfilled because the initial nominee, Andy Puzder, a billionaire restaurant CEO, was forced to withdraw his name because of being a vocal advocate for cutting back labor regulations, opposes raising the minimum wage, and opposing expanding overtime to low paid salaried workers among many other anti-labor positions.
DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY #1
Politically Speaking: Where do you place yourself on the Political Spectrum?
Donald Trump Lays Out His First 100-Day Plan
Trump By The Numbers
GDP (000 2009$) -
Once the Great 2008 Recession passed in 2010 GDP under President Obama quickly improved, passing President Bush's record by Q4 2010; and has continued to grow ever since. President Obama ended the year (3Q 2016) with a very strong 3.5% annualized growth. (Over all, Obama achieved 2% annual growth, not bad given the GOP 8 year effort to destroy his presidency.)
EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS (000) -
This confusing chart shows each part of the employment picture (except the unemployment rate which is in the next chart).
- Size of the Civilian Labor Force
- Number of people with Jobs
- Number of Full-Time Employees
- Number of Not in Labor Force (retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work)
- Number of Part-Time Employees
- Number who searched for work but not counted in Unemployment numbers and are not Discouraged
- Number who want to work but stopped looking (Discouraged)
Depending on what side of the aisle you are on, you either believe the Unemployment Rate for what it is, a measure of change, or think it doesn't represent reality. Arrayed for your inspection are the different ways the Bureau of Labor slices and dices its numbers.
Notice that throughout President Obama's term, The Employment Level and Full-Time Employees is increasing faster than the Total Labor Force. That means the rate of employment in full-time jobs is increasing.
Notice also that Part-Time employment is flat, which means the PT rate is falling. So are the Marginally Attached (willing to work and searched sometime in the last year, but not in the last four weeks) and the subset of those who are discouraged (willing to work but stopped looking) have fallen dramatically.
Finally, the Not in Labor Force, figure is deceiving. Read the definition and you can surmise the reason for its hefty increase is the baby-boomers retiring.
In all cases where we are considering people who want to work, things have steadily improved throughout the Obama administration. Can a President Donald Trump keep it up?
Unemployment and Participation Rates -
The Unemployment Rate is the one published by the Labor Department and has been trending lower over the last 6.5 years. The Participation Rate, a figure wrongly used to deprecate President Obama because it kept falling. In fact, it only fell throughout the Bush administrations and the aftermath of the Great 2008 Recession, Once people understood the economy was going to continue to recover, the beginning of 2015, the rate stopped decreasing and finally began a journey upward.
Uninsured Rate -
President Obama's major promise to reduce the number of Americans without health insurance from its high of 40 million folks. It is now down to about 20 million. Can a President Trump keep it that way?
DOW Jones Average -
An often leading indicator of where the economy is going is the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It was decimated during the Great 2008 Recession. Soon after the announcement of President Obama's Stimulus Program it reversed course and hasn't stopped growing - about 1560 points per year. It stopped growing with the on-set of the Presidential election, began declining when Donald Trump became the GOP nominee and then took off when he won.
Manufacturing Jobs -
One of President-elect Donald Trump's major themes, the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs; a decline he attributed to President Obama. The facts are different, as you see. The decline was entirely withing the Bush Presidency and, as so many other bad things, in the aftermath of the Great 2008 Recession. The truth is, manufacturing jobs increased throughout the Obama administration. Can Donald Trump fulfill is campaign promise of continuing to bring back the manufacturing jobs lost under Bush?
Donald Trump's First 100-Day Plan
PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP HAS LAID OUT in a the broad strokes of what he intends to do in his first 100 days in office. They are, in no particular order:
- Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - DONE
- Cancel restrictions on the production of American energy, including shale energy and clean coal; which means kill President Obama's Clean Power Plan which is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 32% by 2030
- In order to reduce regulations on business he wants to eliminate two regulations for every one created - DONE
- Direct the Department of Defense to develop a compreensive plan to protect vital American infrastructure from cyber and all other attacks
- Begin investigating all abuses of the American visa system - IN PROCESS
- Prohibit Executive branch officials from becoming lobbyists for five years after they leave so that they can't enrich themselves from government service - DONE
- Appoint judges "who will uphold the Constitution" and "defend the Second Amendment" - Nominated a strict construction to the Supreme Court
- Construct a wall on the southern U.S. border and limit illegal immigration "to give unemployed Americans an opportunity to fill good-paying jobs"
- Repeal and replace the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (commonly called the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare)
- Remove federal restrictions on energy production
- Push for an amendment to the United States Constitution imposing term limits on Congress
- Eliminate gun-free zones
- Label China a "currency manipulator" -
Trump's Pre-President Policy Activities
MOST PRESIDENT-ELECTS WAIT UNTIL THEY ARE SWORN IN BEFORE TAKING substantive foreign and domistic policy actions. But not Donald Trump, who has broken every rule in the book ... and proud of it; it helped him win the election after all. Here is what has taken place so far that will set the foreign policy tone for the next four years.
- Trump picks winners and losers with his tweet "Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016" Lockheed Martin's stocked dipped 2% as a result/
- Trump enters the nuclear arms race in this response to Vladimir Putin saying essentialy the same thing: "The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016"
- Trump attempts to change American foreign policy with "The resolution being considered at the United Nations Security Council regarding Israel should be vetoed....cont: https://t.co/s8rXKKZNF1 — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016" (UPDATE - Trump failed in his bid to intercede for Israel; the United States abstained from the vote)
- Trump takes on Union Leader over Carrier jobs - http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/12/08/trump-clashes-with-union-leader-over-carrier-deal.html
- Trump sets up call with Taiwan's President
- Dec 4 - Trump proposes a 35% tariff http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/donald-trump-threatens-u-s-companies-latest-twitter-diatribe-n691716
- Dec 5 - Trump takes China to task with http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38167022
- Dec 12 - Trump tells China he may not be bound by the decades old "One-China Policy" - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinese-paper-calls-trump-as-ignorant-as-a-childafter-taiwan-comment/2016/12/12/d91fbaea-c02c-11e6-b20d-3075b273feeb_story.html?utm_term=.ba5a610b414b
- Dec 3 - Trump talks with Taiwanese President - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/world/asia/china-donald-trump-taiwan-twitter.html?_r=0
PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS:
1/20/2017 - Signed Executive Order 13765 which directs all executive departments to begin the process of dismantling the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Potentially that means the IRS will stop enforcing the Individual Mandate (designed to keep health insurance premiums down) and drop defense of GOP lawsuit designed to eliminate subsidies for most exchange program users (to do so will kill the subsidies), The likely result from these actions are that few insurance companies will participate driving much higher premiums, and substantially increase the number of uninsured Americans.
In part, he wrote "It stressed that agencies can "waive, defer, grant exemptions from or delay implementation of any provision or requirement" of Obamacare that imposes a burden "to the maximum extent permitted by law."
1/20/2017 - Signed a Memorandum to stop a last minute FHA rate cut of 1/4 point put in place by outgoing President Obama. This action will cost homeowners about $500 in 2017,
1/23/2017 - Signed a Memorandum freezing all regulations pending review by Department heads. This will have a positive impact on some businesses,but will also hurt many others
1/23/2017 - Signed Memorandum ordering Federal Agencies to freeze hiring new civil servants.1
1/23/2017 - Signed a Memorandum to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership with the hope to make bi-lateral deals with individual nations. That opens a huge void which China is likely to fill. Economist also predict this move will slow down America's economic growth. Whether it does or not remains to be seen and I will up-date this accordingly
1/23/2017 - Signed a Memorandum that reinstates the Mexico City Abortion Rule created by President Reagan in 1985. This policy denies USAID funds for any foreign nation project that includes money for counselling women or accomplishing abortions. Presidents Reagan, H.W. Bush, and W. Bush promoted this rule. Presidents Clinton and Obama rescinded it.
1/23/017 - Apparently ordered EPA to cut grants. The Huffington Post reported "EPA staff has been instructed to freeze all its grants ― an extensive program that includes funding for research, redevelopment of former industrial sites, air quality monitoring and education, among other things ― and told not to discuss this order with anyone outside the agency,"
1/24/2017 - Signed several Memorandum to restart the Keystone XL and Dakota oil pipelines. One stumbling block Trump may face is whether there is a demand for it anymore. The world has changed since Keystone was envisioned and whether it is actually needed is now being debated.
1/24/2017 - Signed Executive Order 13766 to help "fast-track" high priority infrastructure projects.
1/24/2017 - Signed a Memorandum directing the Secretary of Commerce to come up with plan to mandate using American-made steel for all new, expanded or retrofitted pipelines in the United States.
1/24/207 - Signed a Memorandum that tells "directors of executive departments and agencies to support the expansion of manufacturing in the United States through expedited reviews of and approvals for proposals to construct or expand manufacturing facilities and through reductions in regulatory burdens affecting domestic manufacturing."
1/25/2017 - Tweeted this morning announcing his intent to investigate the unproven widespread voter fraud in which he claims 3 - million illegal votes were cast in the 2016 election. His criteria for fraud is if someone is registered and is 1) dead, 2) registered in two more states (like his cabinet nominee Mnuchin), or are illegal,
1/25/2017 - Signed an Executive Order 13767 to start the process of building a massive wall along the 1200 mile border with Mexico, similar to the Berlin Wall. It also defunds "sanctuary" cities who don't cooperate with federal authorities in apprehending suspected undocumented aliens. The cities and states are expected to largely ignore this threat which, based on the Obamacare-Medicaid expansion Supreme Court ruling, is probably unconstitutional.
1/27/2017 - Signed Executive Order 13768 to stop ALL citizens from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia from entering the United States, roughly 134,000,000 people, for at least 90 days; the order makes clear this is just the start in terms of time and number of nations. At some point, non-Muslims will be allowed in from these countries. The order also stopped America's refugee program for 120 days to allow the State Department and DHS to make the already extreme vetting process even more extreme. He banned entirely refugees from Syria. It is worthwhile noting that 1) Trumps campaign promise was to ban all Muslims and 2) the experts say that of the 2 million or so refugees America allowed in since the late 1980s, none have been arrested as a domestic terrorist. The same is true of illegal immigrants coming across the Mexican border. Several days later courts put a nationwide stay on this order.
This order was effectively stopped by several court rulings over the next week. Trump is expected to rescind this EO and replace it with another one.
Federal regulations: Trump signed an executive order requiring that for every new federal regulation on small and large businesses, two existing regulations must be removed. He signed the document after a meeting with small business leaders. Trump said he wants to end regulatory discrepancy between big and small business.
CIA in the NSC: Trump added the Director of the CIA and his senior political adverser Steve Bannon as Principals to the National Security Council while down grading the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff. and Director of National Intelligence.
1/31/2017 - Supreme Court: Trump nominated federal appellate Judge Neil McGill Gorsuch to replace Associate Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. Some Democrats promised to filibuster the confirmation process after Republicans refused to hold hearings on former President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland after Scalia's death.
1 I went through that with Clinton - Gore. The result was a smaller, more expensive government. It was more expensive because the workload was not reduced and they had to hire contractors to do the work. The GAO reported that, on average, a contractor is about 20% or more expensive than an equivalent civil servant when the contract is long-term (exceeding more than a year) and recurring. My office shrunk so much that we could not perform some work sent to us by acquisition. Because government lost so much expertise, we had to hire contractors to oversee other contractors and report back to a civil servant, a person who was often one-deep in terms of having the knowledge to monitor the oversight contractor. http://www.gao.gov/assets/220/219269.pdf. There nothing new that says the same thing won't happen.
Wall Street Regulation: Trump signed an executive order to ease U.S. fiscal regulations in the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 -- Dodd-Frank was created, like the defunct Glass-Steagal Act, to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 Great Recession.
Money Manager Rule: The president ordered the Labor Department to review a rule from former President Barack Obama requiring financial managers to act in their clients' best interests when handling retirement accounts to determine whether to keep the rule in place..
Police Protection: Trump signed an order to review existing laws and produce legislation to better protect federal, state and local law enforcement officers.
Crime Reduction: The president ordered Attorney General Jeff Sessions to create a new federal task force to share information among agencies, develop strategies, identify deficiencies in current laws, evaluate criminal data and make recommendations for greater safety of U.S. citizens.
Foreign Crime Fighting: Trump issued an executive order prioritizing efforts to prosecute foreign-based crimes like drug and human trafficking. It calls for stricter enforcement of laws already on the books and efforts to "identify, interdict, disrupt, and dismantle transnational criminal organizations."
2/14/2017 - Anti-Corruption Repeal: President Trump signed House Joint Resolution 41, which reverses a federal rule that requires energy companies to disclose royalties and government payments. The rule was imposed by the Obama administration last year as a transparency measure.
2/16/2017 - Repeal Coal Waste Regulation: Signed bill to repeal regulation to prevent coal waste products from entering streams.
2/25/2017 - Clean Water Repeal: Directed EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers to reconsider a 2015 rule issued by President Obama known as the Waters of the United States rule. It gave the federal government authority over small waterways in order to prevent polluters from damaging larger bodies of water they connect to; about a 3% increase.
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