- Politics and Social Issues»
- United States Politics
Barack Obama is about to Win
This hub will be based solely on this one prediction; President Obama will soon be reelected. It is impossible for anyone to be entirely certain of this, of course. Take a look at all but the most partisan of news sites and political blogs, and at once it becomes clear that the only thing most medial outlets seem to agree upon is that the campaign is a "horse race." But the rest of the American population has largely made their decision, and is banking on their preferred candidate to come out on top tomorrow. Only nine percent of Americans are still undecided, and may not even vote. For some, Romney will prevail tomorrow. I myself predict an Obama victory.
And here is why; the fundamentals of the race still favor the President. Back in July, I wrote a hub predicting that in order for Romney to win, he had to dominate the debate in August. He failed to do so. The Republican National Convention was lackluster, at best, and all of the rising stars within the GOP appeared to believe that Romney is likely to lose. Furthermore, the Obama Team used the month of August to define Mitt Romney as a person, because the Romney Campaign had failed to do so. When the month of August ended, Romney came out bruised and beaten, and the only thing unruffled about him was his hair. Obama, meanwhile, had a much better convention and no "empty chair" moments.
Then came September, which should have been a terrible month for President Obama. First, there came a bad jobs report from August. Then, on September 11th, the Consulate in Benghazi was attacked, leading to the deaths of four Americans. Bad news for Obama, it seemed. Leave it to Mitt to make matters complicated, and not in a good way, least of all for himself. He held a press conference condemning the consulate and the Administration of siding with the attackers, hours before a few of the facts were cleared up. (Though much remains murky.) Romney did himself no favors by playing in campaign mode in the midst of a national crises.
Things got worse for Romney when the 47% video was released, for reasons that should be pretty obvious. After all, who wants to elect a President who thinks half of Americans are moochers? But Obama failed so miserably in the Denver debate that Romney caught a reprieve. And that brings us to the present.
Obama sustained much damage from the Denver debate, but made up for it with two strong performances in the last two debates. Romney experienced a surge after Denver, but his numbers have since stalled, and the race remained at a deadlock at the national level. However, Obama has never lost his lead in the major swing states, like Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He has been pretty much tied in Virginia, and, despite much polling showing a Romney lead in Florida, I still think Florida can go either way (though I put my bets on a Romney win in Florida). And some recent polling, from PPP, Ipsos/Reuters and the Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests that Obama has a slight lead nationally now.
So, to get down to it, my prediction for election 2012 is this; Romney wins the popular vote, helped in part by Hurricane Sandy, which affected predominantly Democratic states and might cause a smaller turnout for Obama there. But Obama wins the electoral vote, because he has pretty sure leads in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Iowa, the states he needs to win. The race has pretty much remained the way it was in August, with Obama likely to win the most electoral votes. We will see what the picture looks like on Wednesday.