ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

Barack Obama is about to Win

Updated on January 18, 2013

This hub will be based solely on this one prediction; President Obama will soon be reelected. It is impossible for anyone to be entirely certain of this, of course. Take a look at all but the most partisan of news sites and political blogs, and at once it becomes clear that the only thing most medial outlets seem to agree upon is that the campaign is a "horse race." But the rest of the American population has largely made their decision, and is banking on their preferred candidate to come out on top tomorrow. Only nine percent of Americans are still undecided, and may not even vote. For some, Romney will prevail tomorrow. I myself predict an Obama victory.

And here is why; the fundamentals of the race still favor the President. Back in July, I wrote a hub predicting that in order for Romney to win, he had to dominate the debate in August. He failed to do so. The Republican National Convention was lackluster, at best, and all of the rising stars within the GOP appeared to believe that Romney is likely to lose. Furthermore, the Obama Team used the month of August to define Mitt Romney as a person, because the Romney Campaign had failed to do so. When the month of August ended, Romney came out bruised and beaten, and the only thing unruffled about him was his hair. Obama, meanwhile, had a much better convention and no "empty chair" moments.

Then came September, which should have been a terrible month for President Obama. First, there came a bad jobs report from August. Then, on September 11th, the Consulate in Benghazi was attacked, leading to the deaths of four Americans. Bad news for Obama, it seemed. Leave it to Mitt to make matters complicated, and not in a good way, least of all for himself. He held a press conference condemning the consulate and the Administration of siding with the attackers, hours before a few of the facts were cleared up. (Though much remains murky.) Romney did himself no favors by playing in campaign mode in the midst of a national crises.

Things got worse for Romney when the 47% video was released, for reasons that should be pretty obvious. After all, who wants to elect a President who thinks half of Americans are moochers? But Obama failed so miserably in the Denver debate that Romney caught a reprieve. And that brings us to the present.

Obama sustained much damage from the Denver debate, but made up for it with two strong performances in the last two debates. Romney experienced a surge after Denver, but his numbers have since stalled, and the race remained at a deadlock at the national level. However, Obama has never lost his lead in the major swing states, like Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He has been pretty much tied in Virginia, and, despite much polling showing a Romney lead in Florida, I still think Florida can go either way (though I put my bets on a Romney win in Florida). And some recent polling, from PPP, Ipsos/Reuters and the Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests that Obama has a slight lead nationally now.

So, to get down to it, my prediction for election 2012 is this; Romney wins the popular vote, helped in part by Hurricane Sandy, which affected predominantly Democratic states and might cause a smaller turnout for Obama there. But Obama wins the electoral vote, because he has pretty sure leads in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Iowa, the states he needs to win. The race has pretty much remained the way it was in August, with Obama likely to win the most electoral votes. We will see what the picture looks like on Wednesday.

Polling Data

Public Policy Polling

ABC News/Washington Post

Reuters/Ipsos

Comments

    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    • Nathan Orf profile imageAUTHOR

      Nathan Orf 

      5 years ago

      rehtnab51,

      I have to say, I did not expect Obama to win as big as he did. I thought He would lose Florida and the popular vote, but he won both.

    • rehtnab51 profile image

      rehtnab51 

      5 years ago

      I thought Mit was going to pull it off there for a while but Mr Obama came back and won and won big.

    • Nathan Orf profile imageAUTHOR

      Nathan Orf 

      5 years ago

      Michele Travis,

      Thanks for the vote up. Sorry I took so long to respond, but I've been caught up in election mania all day. And I agree with you about the voting situation, I hope more people do come to the polls.

      The votes are looking good so far...

    • Michele Travis profile image

      Michele Travis 

      5 years ago from U.S.A. Ohio

      I got up at 6:00 this morning, when to the polling place. got in line. It opened up at 6:30 and I voted at 7:30. Guess we will find out very late tonight. By the way, if people do not vote, I feel like that is a very sad thing. We have the right to vote. We need to keep the right to vote.

      Voted up.

    working

    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://hubpages.com/privacy-policy#gdpr

    Show Details
    Necessary
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Features
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Marketing
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Statistics
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)