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Could Brexit Lead to an Unexpected Scottish Independence
Political need is forcing the The Unelected One towards a hard Brexit: Letting Parliament block Brexit or force a second referendum after negotiation are completed could lead to a UKIP government, possibly a UKIP majority government. If this happens their leader an aptly named Mr Nuttall, who seems, on the evidence of his public statements, to have much in common with the extremist wing of ISIS, could carry out his plan of expelling all Scots, Welsh and Irish MPs from the House of Condoms. This would hopefully immediately render the Act of Union 1707 null and void and establish Scotland as an independent country with no further ado. One can only hope that this would be the case while feeling sorry for the English but remembering they did it to themselves. A similar result would occur if she negotiated a soft Brexit. If she goes for a hard Brexit it is only a matter of time before the Europhile wing of the Tory party, concluding their jobs are more at risk in the Tory party than out of it, decide to form a separate party, perhaps based on the discredited notion of One Nation Toryism:- as long as that nation does not include anyone who is not white and born in Britain. And those seem to be her only choices. For her a hard Brexit would be a Titanic success and she could retire to the plaudits of the Alt-Right tendency leaving the next PM to deal with the probable breakup of the United Kingdom among other things.
There is one other possibility. There is a hint of a chance that Holyrood could have the power to block Brexit. And that opens up several possibilities if Holyrood can and does block Article 50 completely. Theresa the Unelected could say that the rule of law must prevail and ditch Brexit, thus leading at least to a leadership challenge, change the law (a potentially slow task possibly involving the European Court of Justice and involving the Queen in a constitutional dilemma, if not a crisis) or move to have Scotland ejected from the UK. The least troublesome for her would probably be to get Scotland thrown out. It would have to be an orderly eviction and she would have to negotiate the terms under the watchful eyes of UKIP, the Scottish People and probably the UN. It seems unlikely she will simply ignore Scotland, probably does not want a Brexit versus the Rule of Law election and may try to pass legislation to remove Scotland’s Right to block Brexit. After that we will be into uncharted territory with a map that says “Here Be Dragons”. We could expect anti-Scottish hate crimes in England to rise and a sudden push for Scottish Independence from the Daily Mail, which supported the Nazis in the 1930s, and the rest of the Alt-Right English Media. The reaction in Scotland would be impossible to predict.
Brexit Versus the Union
It would seem, hopefully, that Theresa the Unelected is facing a choice between preserving the union between England and Scotland with special arrangements that could lead to the Tories losing their majority and perhaps losing power completely, (though they can count on Labour to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory), and removing Scotland, the thorn in the side of Brexit, from the equation:
One can almost write the speech
To be made after a long mainstream media campaign against Scotland remaining in the UK
20th July 2017. The Pry Minister commandeers the airwaves for a special speech
It has become clear since 2014 that Scotland cannot abide democracy. Since that fateful night the SNP have continually defied the settled will of the remainder of the UK and persisted in pursuing the will of the wisp dream of independence. Now they have blocked the settled will of the remainder of the UK by vetoing the triggering of Article 50. Remembering that the term Unionist in the name of our party refers to the union with Northern Island, not with Scotland we have, regrettably come to the parting of the ways after more than three hundred years. I have used the Royal Prerogative to repeal the Acts of Union of 1707, following discussions with the opposition who agree this is the best for all concerned. Scotland must now make her way friendless and poor in a harsh world. I will be meeting the First Minister in the next few days to try and negotiate transitional arrangements and the least painful settlement possible. We wish Scotland all the Best in the future and will now concentrate on negotiations with the EU on severance of our relationship. On the positive side we can look forward to an era of strong government in which no party need rely on the Scottish National Party to form a majority and we can rebuild the unity of the remainder of the United Kingdom.
Which translates as
The Jocks are holding up Brexit and damaging my chances of being an elected Prime Minister in 2020. I talked to Labour and they are as fed up with them as we are having finally realised they will not get back in power there till the present generation are dead and buried – or equivalently in the House of Lords. Using the Royal prerogative stops the dinosaurs keeping this pain in the butt in our butt. Getting rid of the Scots means Labour will find it almost impossible to gain power, which they actually prefer, and we can do what we like. I will negotiate a settlement that keeps Trident well away from safe Tory seats in England, perhaps in Wales or Cornwall. We will of course try to grab as much of the oil as possible while sticking a stiff import tariff on Whisky, Haggis, Teacakes and shortbread.
Prediction is of course especially difficult if it involves the future but there seem to be hints of a change in the attitude of the Scottish mainstream media to independence, with home rule being a thinkable halfway house from which to move to supporting independence
To bring us back to Earth however our beloved viceroy Mr Mundell has said that new powers could come to Holyrood after Brexit and that no powers would be re-reserved to Westminster. One way in which this could happen is by Westminster dissolving the Scottish Parliament. There would then be no powers to be re-reserved to Westminster. During the Referendum campaign, as I recall, a certain Ms Davidson said she would fight her own party if they moved against the Scottish Parliament. Would she stick to that if offered a safe Tory seat like say Kensington? Answers on a post card…..
In brief the political necessities of Brexit could, if psychological barriers in the English establishment were overcome, result in Scotland becoming independent in unexpected ways sooner than anyone envisaged.
The Chancellor delivered his Autumn Statement which can be summed up as
Christmas is coming the goose is getting fat
Time to take some money out the old man’s hat.
If he hasn’t got a penny a halfpenny will do
If he hasn’t got a halfpenny send him doon the broo
Perhaps the subtlest leak of all occurred when a minister walked out of a meeting with his private notes visible to the cameras of waiting journalists. It showed that most of the optimistic noises the Alt-Right Brexiteers are making are just that: noise.
Still I sing bonnie boys, bonnie mad boys,
Bedlam boys are bonnie
(Tom of Bedlam’s song 1610)
A protest march in favour of Brexit flopped as almost nobody turned up
Tony Blair decided to try and reenter frontline UK politics and Labour decided to vote against further investigation over the Iraq war. Voting against the Tories is still anathema.
Honestly, if the last month had been written as fiction the author would have been castigated as going unbelievably over the top. The same could be said for America.
For they don’t go bare or live by the air,
And all they want is money.
(Tom of Bedlam’s song 1610 slightly paraphrased)