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Deep Risk Analysis; Covid 19 Risks

Updated on July 3, 2020
Ericdierker profile image

Holding degrees in philosophy and Law. Formal studies or certificates or degrees in business, theology, insurance and security. Ex-preacher.

What?

He is going to fall and learn.
He is going to fall and learn. | Source

Risk

“Risk” and I bet you went to our recent outbreak. Maybe in the notion of risk you went to your favorite phobia. Fear was risk to you. Risk meant fear to you. Here we are fruitcakes of the risk taking variety. We gravitate toward risk and therefor our fears. Believe it or not there are risk junkies and I have an itty biddy degree in Risk Management. That is funny. Don’t get rid of the risk, manage it.

For sure I have an associate’s degree in risk management and some insurance deal license thing around here some place. That sense is how to stop theft from both in and out of a “corporate structure” down to a car repair loner. Target type stores and we are talking millions of “spoilage” losses per month. The risk prevention is more than a billion dollar a year industry.

Flash over to wonderful times in a places called Baja Mar, Baja Norte California, Mexico and Cu Chi Saigon, Vietnam. How fun. Or maybe Seoul or the Boca Raton. OK so I demand to eat from street carts or the like. I have no common sense and the idea that an ice cold beer cleans all manner of stuff works for me. I have never gotten sick by a street vendor’s food. However…. Once my father-in-law jumped and demanded no ice in the drink. Another time a buddy pointed out rewashing of straws. Yikes! To me the risk analysis said “eat boy and live la vida loca”. Maybe I should have cut back on drinking earlier in life.

Are we getting to the risks about Covid 19? Absolutely and I like it. What risk am I willing to take I ask. I learned a long time ago that when I take risks and it goes badly other people suffer. Fair enough and enough not to take risks? So I spent a good deal of time distancing myself from people so they would not give a damn about me. Fine work if you can get it and do alright alone in this world. Later on I realized that alienation and loneliness was a risk I no longer wanted to take. So back off on cliff jumping and skiing 80 miles per hour. Not good for those who love you.

See where we are going? Because I do not.

At The Risk of Being Country

Cliffs

On the way to a climb.
On the way to a climb. | Source

Infectious

Risk. I like it although I basically have a life without it. So I do things like climb cliffs and what am I thinking? Picking up the clarinet after 50 years? And I publish this stuff. Risk of rejection is as scary as can be. Oh but what about getting sick? Doing things to avoid the risk of getting sick just makes logical sense. Especially when your sick can be given by you to another who wants no risk at all.

“Toxic people” is a great notion. I have never practiced staying away from them. I get the idea but they have never bothered me. Sure I might talk smack to them or even about them but I take the risk of being around them. Probably most people would accept the proposition that they are like infectious. And merely being around them you could catch it from them. Maybe I am immune or maybe I just don’t notice that I have been affected. Note above I include talking about them, a toxic quality. So not all risk of infection is of the viral or bacterial kind.

Hey now don’t be all said there are two type of infectious that are cool. Yawning is too fun. My wife yawns and within minutes or even seconds I yawn. Something to do with empathy and sympathy I understand. Oops, just writing about it made me yawn – really.

And the best infectious of all is laughing. You need some kind of treatment for a disorder if you can be around laughing people and not laugh. I would not agree that that is normal. Laughing alone is fun but nothing like laughing “with” someone else. I like being the center of attention so laughing at me is just AOK with me. But if you want to act all made up inside of you, do not approach happy loving people, the risk of infection is just too high.

I am of the opinion that love is infectious and that we are all infected. But some folks don’t want the risk of heartache and so the avoid it or demand to be asymptomatic. I think we have to accept that at least for someone going through a rough patch. But we must still take the risk in our hearts to try and infect them.

Hey is the word infectious always about something bad, like it is a bad word? I think not.

Can We Make It?

A long way to go.
A long way to go. | Source

You Need A Spark

Unacceptable Risk

So this “opening up” deal is risky business. My little family does not “frequent” outside places with people. I hike a lot but distancing on trails is real easy with so few people. Plus they are coming up with ideas that outside stuff does not transmit the virus like being inside. I just love that. Fresh air and sunshine help abate a disease. That is a cure or prevention I can really get behind. So my family gets outside a whole bunch more now. We are lucky as we have land to do that on. But walks and parks are still on the agenda.

Libraries and places of worship. Get over it that they are not so cool to reopen quickly. But you can get books delivered and “church” gatherings can be at places like a bay or a large park. Right on, Jesus and Buddha did their best “preaching” outside. Bring a blanket gather with your home family and gaze at nature while getting a lesson in love. (Sorry if the preacher is talking about something else I doubt it is really preaching and a walk with prayers may be a better idea)

To those like my wife, a child returning to school seems like an unacceptable risk. And that takes us right up to when it may just be the lessor of two evils that we must take a risk at. Yikes. I hate that when either option stinks to an extent. For me; I fuss and worry and argue and balance and talk and pray and read and breath deep. Then by golly I put on my big boy pants and face it straight up and make either choice the right one because I refuse to be infected by negative Nelly. That is an unacceptable risk. Not a risk I will “manage” but rather one that I will aggressively get rid of.

Did you know that a whole lot of people do not like math? But they deal with it daily in matters like driving, time management, purchasing and cooking. The list goes on and on. Even in things like evaluation of a distance like off a step or behind another car is math. Our distances in life are minor immediate calculations in mathematics. Miss judge the height of that step and broken ankle here you come. Calculations mean risk of error of judgment.

When it comes down to it the only important risk I have is that of losing my own ability to love. Toxic people, opening up, driving on a freeway, eating food all carry a risk. But we must refuse to allow that risk to include love loss. That is not an acceptable risk.

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    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      4 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Dora as usual I like your take on the issues. You remind me of going out for a 4 day hike/climb. No doubt we will risk much but we don't have to risk having the right equipment. I think faith has carried me past much risk.

    • MsDora profile image

      Dora Weithers 

      4 weeks ago from The Caribbean

      Eric, sometimes what we call risk, could be called faith according to our perspective. However, faith does not seem to be a factor in the risks we are being called to take during the pandemic. You're always right about love.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Very true Devika. Cancer - car wrecks - and on and on.

    • DDE profile image

      Devika Primić 

      5 weeks ago from Dubrovnik, Croatia

      A risk is just walking out on the street and the virus doesn't make me feel any more risk than that. I like your hubs.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Denise when I got married to my lady quite a while ago. Those close said to at least wait. And many were just dead set against it. 20 years later and a wonderful son. That risk sure was in the love column. None of us have figured her out yet -- she puts up with me? ;-)

    • PAINTDRIPS profile image

      Denise McGill 

      5 weeks ago from Fresno CA

      Just breathing is a risk. I glad I took the risk of loving my husband and marrying him. Some risks are worth the trouble. You got me thinking today. Thanks for that.

      Blessings,

      Denise

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Bill, that is an ever present "to do or not to do", for me. Good point that they need the love the most.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Linda me too. I got to making a list of big and little. Acceptable and unacceptable. Kind of interesting are the blurry ones.

    • lifegate profile image

      William Kovacic 

      5 weeks ago from Pleasant Gap, PA

      Toxic people? I know a bunch of them. And they need love and acceptance as much as anyone else. It's worth he risk. But I do admit, it's hard sometimes.

    • AliciaC profile image

      Linda Crampton 

      5 weeks ago from British Columbia, Canada

      I agree with Linda L. that there are risks and RISKS. (I like the way in which she's used small letters and capital ones.) I think we certainly need to take a chance with the risks, as you've described. We risk missing so much if we don't! On the other hand, we need to be very careful about the major RISKS.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Jack I like that. My in-laws are more into the fate notion than me. I get it.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Linda, I hear you loud and clear. I still go for some of that invincible stuff though. It is a tradition type of thing. Some kind of manly man garbage. Gabe has already surfed big waves and hiked the Grand Canyon. Maybe a country boy concept.

      I only have one good friend who writes me back my hand penned and mailed letters and two sisters. I am working on one now. But people don't even keep stamps around nowadays. Perhaps not sad but interesting.

      But we just started a garlic club that requires sending our special garlic through post. It should be fun.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      5 weeks ago from Yorktown NY

      There is an old Chinese saying my mother used to say...it translate roughly, you can calculate the sky and the earth but it is no match for God's calculation. It is fate.

    • Carb Diva profile image

      Linda Lum 

      5 weeks ago from Washington State, USA

      Eric, there are risks and then there are RISKS. When you plan ahead, do the best you can to protect yourself (or others) and proceed with caution--sure, you're still taking a risk but with a well-thought out strategy behind it. Then there's the type of risks we took as teenagers when we had no brains and knew we were invincible.

      Every day when I get out of bed the risks begin. That's a part of life, and I'm not going to let Covid or anything else keep me from living my life, but right now the life I'm living feels pretty good to me. I'm not an outgoing sort. I tend to keep to myself so this quarantine thing is actually my cup of tea. But just because I'm not interacting on a social level with others doesn't mean that I'm totally isolated. Church online. Conversations on the phone. Online chats. And, I'm even writing letters (yes, REAL letters) and mailing them.

      Life is good.

      Thanks for another reminder of the important things in life--mainly, LOVE.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      I hear you Jack but I usually have a plan be rather than just letting the rest take care of itself ;-)

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Ruby I am a mask, glasses, gloves and hat guy. And they all get washed along with my clothes upon returning home. I kind of have fun with it.

      I had to climb (using all fours) up a little cliff the other day while hiking. All alone, left my phone and a rarely visited trail. What a dumb risk. But I will not risk bringing crap back home to my child and wife. We live, we learn and hopefully do it all in love.

    • jackclee lm profile image

      Jack Lee 

      5 weeks ago from Yorktown NY

      Eric, life is a risk...you live it best you can and let the rest take care of itself.

    • always exploring profile image

      Ruby Jean Richert 

      5 weeks ago from Southern Illinois

      I took a risk yesterday, I went shopping. I felt like I was going to scream if I didn't get out of the house. I do wear a mask and I feel like those who do not wear one are risking their family's life. Now, about love, I didn't hate the woman who chose to not wear a mask while I was shopping, but I must admit that I wondered why? If we don't take risks, we live in a bubble. I am really a homebody and can always find something in my home to do, but I guess too many weeks got to me. Your message about love is timely, there's a lot of hate out there. Stay well and happy and keep inspiring us to love.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Ann last I checked some poor folks have a boring life - not the Dierkers.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Pamela I thank you for coming by and leaving a note. I like that term low profile.

    • annart profile image

      Ann Carr 

      5 weeks ago from SW England

      I understand that completely, Eric!

      Keep safe and well!

      Ann

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      So cool Manatita as the beat goes on albeit with a new tempo. I am quite in love with the Spanish language, although these days I have few to practice with, hopefully I won't lose much.

      Family sure is a different mix up these days.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Bill I am hearing you loud and clear. I took a leap of love risk around 20 years ago. She is the finest risk I ever did take.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Thanks Ann, isn't strange how fast we get frightened about "going back".

      I am an isolationist for sure. So most changes did not really get me much. Except having these two peoples hanging around all day.

      Ann I check in with my buddies, and to a one their wives maintain strict policies. So those guys are safe to go see. But I am just not going to see one brother and a sister who just don't care. It is a little more than just that they might be contagious, but more about the attitude of not caring enough about me and mine.

      Hmm, a Covid resentment disorder?

    • Pamela99 profile image

      Pamela Oglesby 

      5 weeks ago from Sunny Florida

      What a great article about taking risks! I am not a risk taker where the virus is concerned. Keeping a low profile works fine at this house. As you so frequently write, love is the most important thing, Eric.

    • manatita44 profile image

      manatita44 

      5 weeks ago from london

      Lovely piece! The Chinese look at risk as a measure of danger versus opportunity. Cool, eh? I took a risk in going to my wife's home for Spanish practice. Good day for me, I suppose.

      I caught her on the verandah alone. We chatted in Spanish, but there were some invisible alluring aroma playing with stealth in the background. We eventually had a joint ceremony of two sisters/two husbands in Brooklyn, NY, 1980. A risk with opportunity. Haha.

      I saw my daughter a couple of days ago and the first thing she did was rush to me and hugged me. I wanted to reciprocate with my usual kiss on the forehead, but I just managed to control myself... for both our sakes. Lovely article! The risks of Love, eh?

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Liz my lady and I just decided and have the luxury to, just stay in the original mode. I got to visit a friend in his office yesterday. His office has all the stuff to protect his staff and clients. So that was cool. His services were on the essential list so he was right on risk abatement. I am a "rather safe" than sorry mode. Which is not my nature.

    • Ericdierker profile imageAUTHOR

      Eric Dierker 

      5 weeks ago from Spring Valley, CA. U.S.A.

      Fun stuff to contemplate John. John it hit me while writing this that us dads and the like, have to weigh the risk of our problems on others. Me, I just use it as an excuse ;-)

    • billybuc profile image

      Bill Holland 

      5 weeks ago from Olympia, WA

      It always comes back around to love, doesn't it? I took that risk thirteen years ago. Other risks? I'm fine at home. I'm fine with a mask on. I'll live on mac n cheese and love for as long as I have to. :)

    • annart profile image

      Ann Carr 

      5 weeks ago from SW England

      This is fantastic, Eric! You've brought up a whole new attitude to risk - well, not exactly new but a refreshingly different way of expressing it - plus you throw in other things along the way.

      Yes, we take risks daily in our 'normal' lives (probably never to return!) but there is an educated assessment which goes with all of them.

      Health is a huge issue though. My main worry, or risk, is going out and happening to meet people who don't actually think there is any risk at all - then we get the problems.

      It's a balance, this being able to live reasonably and connect with our family and friends. I'm taking a deep breath to summon the courage to get to see my children properly whilst maintaining sensible restrictions.

      Half the fear now is that we've been so long in the 'lockdown' (the very name is frightening!) that we fear our previous freedom!

      Thanks for putting it all in perspective, Eric. You are a wonderful person. Enjoy that lovely family of yours and get out to share those pathways and that nature that you have around you!

      I do agree with Liz about the 'current mishmash' here in Britain!

      Ann

    • Eurofile profile image

      Liz Westwood 

      5 weeks ago from UK

      I appreciate your balanced and sensible approach to risk. Personally, I think complete lockdown was easier than the current mishmash of rules in the UK.

    • Jodah profile image

      John Hansen 

      5 weeks ago from Queensland Australia

      We all need to take some risks in life, Eric, or we would lead a rather boring existence. We do have to weigh up though what is acceptable risk and what is not. At the moment more than ever.

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