Difference Between Exit Poll And the Result of 2014 Loksabha In India
Exit Polls
Exit Poll
Dutch sociologist and former politician Marcel van Dam is the inventor of the exit poll.He first implemented an exit poll during the Dutch legislative election on February 15, 1967.Exit poll is the poll conducted by some media to show pre-count result of election.In this poll voters are asked whom he voted just after his/her exit from real election booth.The name is kept secret.Unlike opinion poll which is conducted before the poll ,an exit poll is considered more accurate. In 2014 Loksabha election Commission of India barred media organization to reveal exit poll result before the counting of the poll.But finally Election Commission of India withdrew its ban on revealing exit poll result before the counting of votes after being virulently attacked by media.Here is the details of 2014 exit poll result for 2014 Loksabha election.
Exit Poll
2014 Indian Parliamentary Exit Poll By Aztak,ABP-News,CNN-IBN,News-24 And India-TV,Time-Now-News-Nation
Aaztak predicted that N.D.A. or National Democratic Alliance led by Bharatiya Janata Party would bag 272 milestone to get the majority to form the next Government in India .It said U.P.A or United Progressive Alliance would get 115 seats while others would win 156 parliamentary constituencies.
A.B.P News expressed National Democratic Alliance would obtain 281 parliamentary seats all over India.It suggested that United Progressive Alliance would bag 97 seats ,the worse result it had ever had.According to A.B.P News others would get 165 seats in total.
C.N.N-I.B.N foretold that N.D.A would have bagged 270 to 282 seats in this election.The range of seats would be between 92 to 102.Others,as C.N.N-I.B.N predicted,would receive from 150 to 160 seats.
India TV reported that N.D.A or National Democratic Alliance would get 289 seats while United Progressive Alliance would got 101 seats and 153 parliamentary seats would go to others.
The most wonderful prediction as surveyed by News 24 ,suggested that National Democratic Alliance was going to hold 340 (nearly 352 which were won in 1971 parliamentary election by Indian National Congress-Indira in the leadership of Indira Gandhi) in this parliamentary election by the influential leadership of Narendra Modi.It predicted that United Progressive Alliance would get 70 seats least seats even by Congress.Others would go to win 133 seats.
Times Now and News Nation predicted that seats of National Democratic Alliance would vary from 249 to 265 while seats in this parliamentary election of United Progressive Alliance would win would range from 121 to 148.Others ,as suggested by this news channel,would get from 143 to 160.
Prediction By Surveys
Front/Alliance
| News-24
| ABP News-Nielson
| Aaztak/IndiaToday-Cicero
| CNN-IBN
| India-TV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Democratic Alliance(NDA)
| 340
| 281
| 272
| 272-282
| 289
|
United Progressive Alliance(UPA)
| 70
| 97
| 115
| 92-102
| 101
|
Others
| 133
| 165
| 156
| 150-160
| 153
|
State -Wise Exit Poll of Aaztak,India-today-Cicero
IBN
| ABP News
| AazTak
| ||
---|---|---|---|---|
1 Andhra Pradesh
| BJP=14-18,INC=3-5,YSRCP=11-15,TRS=8-12
| BJP 3, CONGRESS 3, TDP 9, TRS 8, YSR CONG 18, OTHERS 1
| BJP=15-19,INC=1-3,TRS=10-14,YSRCP=8-12,Other=0-2
| |
4 Bihar
| BJP=21-27,INC=11-15,JDU=2-4
| BJP - 18, LJP - 2, RJD - 11, Congress 5 , JD-U 4
| BJP=21-23,INC=4,RJD=10
| |
7 Gujarat
| BJP=21-25,INC=5
| BJP - 24, Congress 2, Others - 0
| BJP=24-26,INC=0-2
| |
8 Haryana
| Congress (1), BJP- 9
| |||
11 Jharkhand
| BJP -12, Congress 1, Others 1
| |||
12 Karnataka
| BJP=12-16,INC=10-14,JDS=1-3
| BJP 16, CONGRESS 8, JDS 4
| ||
13 Kerala
| UDF=11-14,Left Front=6-9
| BJP 1, CONGRESS 9 , LEFT 8,OTHERS 2
| ||
14 Madhya Pradesh
| BJP=24-28,INC=1-5
| BJP -26 , Congress –3
| ||
15 Maharashtra
| BJP=33-37,INC=11-15,
| BJP - 21, Shiv Sena - 11, Congress - 9, NCP - 6, AAP -1
| BJP=27-35,INC=11-15,Others=2-6
| |
20 Odisha
| BJP=3-7,BJD=12-16,INC=1-3
| BJP=10,INC=2,BJD=9
| ||
21 Punjab
| BJP=6-9,INC=3-5,AAP=1-3
| BJP - 1, AKALI 4, CONGRESS 7 , AAP 1
| ||
22 Rajasthan
| BJP=22-24,INC=1-3
| BJP -22, Congress- 2, Others 1
| BJP=21-25,INC=0-4,Other=0-1
| |
24 Tamil Nadu
| BJP=4-6,AIADMK=22-28,DMK=7-11
| BJP 4+, AIADMK 22, DMK 10, LEFT 2, CONGRESS 1
| BJP=2-4,AIADMK=20-24,DMK=10-14,Other=1-3
| |
26 Uttar Pradesh
| BJP - 46, Congress 8 , BSP 13, SP - 12, AAP - 0, Others 1
| BJP=47-55,INC=4-6
| ||
27 Uttarakhand
| BJP=45-53,INC=3-5,BSP=10-14,SP=13-17
| BJP - 5, CONGRESS - 0
| ||
28 West Bengal
| BJP=1-3,INC=2-4,TMC=25-31,Left Front =7-11
| BJP -1, Congress 5, TMC - 24, LEFT 12
| BJP=1-2,INC=4-6,TMC=24-29,Left Front=7-11
| |
33 NCT of Delhi
| BJP=5-7,AAP=0-2
| BJP-5, Congress- 0, AAP- 2
|
2014 Loksabha Result
2014 Loksabha Result
2014 Loksabha election shows Modi-wave all over India except three states where regional party wave still works as in Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal .In Rajasthan and in Gujrat ,no trace of any other party than BJP has been found.Twenty six seats in Gujrat and twenty five in Rajasthan go with Bharatiya Janata Party.In Madhya Pradesh all seats except two seats go to BJP.Uttarakhand gives all seats to BJP. Uttar Pradesh gives the distinction mark to BJP.
2014 Loksabha Party-Wise Result
Party
| Seat Won
|
---|---|
Bharatiya Janata Party
| 282
|
Communist Party of India
| 1
|
Communist Party of India (Marxist)
| 9
|
Indian National Congress
| 44
|
Nationalist Congress Party
| 6
|
Aam Aadmi Party
| 4
|
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
| 37
|
All India N.R. Congress
| 1
|
All India Trinamool Congress
| 34
|
All India United Democratic Front
| 3
|
Biju Janata Dal
| 20
|
Indian National Lok Dal
| 2
|
Indian Union Muslim League
| 2
|
Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party
| 3
|
Janata Dal (Secular)
| 2
|
Janata Dal (United)
| 2
|
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
| 2
|
Kerala Congress (M)
| 1
|
Lok Jan Shakti Party
| 6
|
Naga Peoples Front
| 1
|
National Peoples Party
| 1
|
Pattali Makkal Katchi
| 1
|
Rashtriya Janata Dal
| 4
|
Revolutionary Socialist Party
| 1
|
Samajwadi Party
| 5
|
Shiromani Akali Dal
| 4
|
Shivsena
| 18
|
Sikkim Democratic Front
| 1
|
Telangana Rashtra Samithi
| 11
|
Telugu Desam
| 16
|
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen
| 1
|
Apna Dal
| 2
|
Rashtriya Lok Samta Party
| 3
|
Swabhimani Paksha
| 1
|
Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party
| 9
|
Independent
| 3
|
Total
| 543
|
Party-Wise Result In Some States For 2014 Loksabha Election
Serial
| ||
---|---|---|
1
| Andhra Pradesh
| Bharatiya Janata Party=3,Indian National Congress=2 , Telangana Rashtra Samithi =11 ,Telugu Desam =16 ,All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen=1,Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party =9
|
2
| Bihar
| Bharatiya Janata Party =22 ,Indian National Congress = 2 ,Nationalist Congress Party =1 ,Janata Dal (United) = 2 ,Lok Jan Shakti Party =6 ,Rashtriya Janata Dal = 4 ,Rashtriya Lok Samta Party =3
|
3
| Gujarat
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 26
|
4
| Haryana
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 7 ,Indian National Congress =1 ,Indian National Lok Dal = 2
|
5
| Jharkhand
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 12 ,Jharkhand Mukti Morcha = 2
|
6
| Karnataka
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 17 , Indian National Congress = 9 , Janata Dal (Secular) = 2
|
7
| Kerala
| Communist Party of India = 1, Communist Party of India (Marxist) = 5 , Indian National Congress = 8 ,Indian Union Muslim League = 2 ,Kerala Congress (M) = 1 ,Revolutionary Socialist Party =1 ,Independent = 2
|
8
| Madhya Pradesh
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 27 ,Indian National Congress =2
|
9
| Maharashtra
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 23 , Indian National Congress = 2 ,Nationalist Congress Party = 4 ,Shivsena = 18 , Swabhimani Paksha =1
|
10
| Odisha
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 1 ,Biju Janata Dal = 20
|
11
| Punjab
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 2 ,Indian National Congress = 3 , Aam Aadmi Party = 4 , Shiromani Akali Dal = 4
|
12
| Rajasthan
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 25
|
13
| Tamil Nadu
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 1 , All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam = 37 , Pattali Makkal Katchi = 1
|
14
| Uttar Pradesh
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 71 , Indian National Congress = 2 , Samajwadi Party = 5 ,Apna Dal = 2
|
15
| Uttarakhand
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 5
|
16
| West Bengal
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 2 , Communist Party of India (Marxist) = 2 , Indian National Congress = 4 ,All India Trinamool Congress = 34
|
17
| NCT of Delhi
| Bharatiya Janata Party = 7
|
Modi As PM Predicted
Similarity Between Exit Poll and Result
So as was predicted in exit poll ,does not differs. Narendra Damodar Das Modi was foretold to be the Prime Minister in this election and the result proved the fortune-telling. Bharatiya Janata Party as a single party white washed other party's dream to make central government in Delhi.As a single party it held two hundred and eighty two seats alone.India National Congress only managed to get 44 Loksabha seats in total.It is the worst result ever for this national party .Thus the prediction proves to be true.