Global Warming: Why the Computer Models Need to Get it Wrong
Richard Attenborough was finally swayed by the argument for global warming when he saw how closely a computer model matched real life.
Unfortunately, this is a classic example of hoodwinking - whether intentionally or not.
It is really easy to get computers to give you the right answer when you know what it is. It is so easy to fudge results. This may not even be intentional. By rounding down the number of cow farts instead of rounding up can make amazing differences in the results. This is the very essence of Chaos Theory. Until modellers get several correct matches from different starting point, there can be no discussion over which set of starting points is the correct one.
The real value of computer modelling is when it gets it wrong.Take the situation where there was less carbon dioxide than predicted. They found out that the rainforests act as carbon sinks absorbing more CO2 than anyone realised. That was good because we learned something. Now they have found out that the glaciers of Iceland are moving faster. This was unexpected.