Independence Is Bigger Than Scotland

Back in 2015 nobody would have believed the United Kingdom would ever be in danger. Even after the EU referendum in 2016 it was only those pesky Scots agitating to leave the Union as they always do, nobody believed warnings about how Brexit could damage, let alone destroy the United Kingdom.

Today Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and even England are pushing harder and harder for independence, loosely defined as leaving the UK. The English independence movement is the last to the party as more and more English realise the Westminster is the UK parliament not and English parliament. Only Cornwall is quiet so far, perhaps because they already consider themselves, as the Duchy of Cornwall, to be separate from the English.

Have we passed the tipping point where cancellation of Brexit will no longer cause these new Independence movements to die down and the United Kingdom to recover, or will it break up whether or not Brexit goes ahead?

Is there still a choice between Brexit and the UK?

Will Theresa May’s efforts to kick Brexit into the long grass or obtain what opponents call Brexit In Name Only result in a rejuvenated UK or just the death of the Tory and probably the Labour parties?

Suppose Brexit is cancelled. Anyone with intelligence who voted against independence in order to remain in the EU should realise that if Brexit is cancelled the Brexiteers will simply wait their chance to launch another effort to get Britain out of the EU. Anyone in the three peripheral (from Westminster’s view point) countries of the UK who wants to remain in the EU will realise that this is more likely if their country is out of the UK. Support for Independence may well fall back but probably not to the levels of 2016.

With Brexit cancelled the NO voters who wanted to remain in the EU will revert to NO. The YES voters who wanted to remain in the EU will still be yes. The YES voters who wanted to leave the EU will swing back to YES and the YES voters who voted YES because they wanted to leave the EU will feel betrayed and may well remain YES. Overall support for Independence will rise in Scotland and probably in Wales and Northern Ireland.

The biggest rise in demand for Independence is likely to arise in England. Since their vision of Brexit has not been tested by reality up to 17 million English are likely to see the UK as the reason they are still in the EU and want to leave the UK or dissolve it. This is without the possibility of Nigel Farage, the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Express promoting the idea in order to achieve a hard Brexit.

There is a consensus that if Brexit goes through support for Independence in all the countries of the UK, will rise. This could be short lived if the economic consequences of Brexit are less severe than predicted or take longer to come through.

The most likely outcome is that the UK will break up. If it does not Brexit will divide it for far longer than the Civil War divided England.