Independence and The Disunited Kingdom
Oxymoron: a self contradictory word of phrase, more generally term that is diametrically opposite to reality. Example: “United Kingdom”.
The UK is divided in a way that may never before have been seen in the three hundred years of its history. Remain vs Leave, Left vs Right and England vs Scotland for a start.
Only a fool, a desperate Prime Minister or one confident of winning would want an election in such circumstances.
Or a politician who wants to ditch a poisoned chalice to be able to blame the winner.
Honest Back Door Boris, that semen stain on the Y-fronts of British politics is not a fool. He is a seasoned wily politician: few others could have come back from the blow the Brexit referendum dealt his political ambitions. He did it, by appealing to the traditional virtues and values of the Tory party and the English working and upper classes.
This Election Will Drive England And Scotland Further Apart
This election is likely to produce a Leave victory in England and a Remain victory in Scotland, Northern Island and, less likely, Wales. It could well result, the prophecy goes, in the end of the United Kingdom. In Scotland it may also be a pro-independence victory, though the Lib Dems will appeal to the anti-independence pro EU voters.
After the shocks of 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 supporters of Scottish Independence should be expecting a Leave vote in England, a Remain vote in Scotland and struggling to ensure a second Independence referendum does not result in a NO vote.
They should also expect that Honest Boris will take whatever steps he needs to abolish Holyrood.
The only path to Independence left will be a pro independence majority of Scottish MPs declaring Independence, a path sanctioned by tory saint Margaret Thatcher and considered by the late Robin Cook at a time when Labour was Labour not a tory wolf dressed in Grandma’s clothing.
This may be an over pessimistic prophecy, but we should be ready for it, and not prepared to break out in whoops of joy if reality proves a little less stark. The end goal for Scotland is Independence, which is now inevitable. The big uncertainty is when. The only certainty is that it will not be in 2019. Will it be as a result of a referendum, Scotland being ejected from the UK or in some other way? The future will tell but some day somehow Scotland will be independent.
Brexit Will Not Kill The Tory Party
Will Brexit deliver the compensation prize of the destruction of the Tory Party? This is very unlikely, in fact it may result in a revived Tory Party, one that has purged itself of its links to business, farmers, fishermen, prudishness and the elderly. One nation Toryism is dead for ever, so what is likely to emerge is a Tory Party which, while still a front for the English and Scottish Establishment gets most of its votes from the working class alt-right.
This trend is already evident with the steady raising of pension age above life expectancy and selling out of the farmers and fishermen. Pensioners, who will be declining as a fraction of the population now baby boomers are reaching the pre death years, farmers, fishermen and any business whose owners retain even a hint of human decency will all be sacrificed to the almighty Brexit and the survival of the Tory Party.
It’s About Power Stupid
There is a trope among Independence supporters that England only wants Scotland for its resources. This ignores an inconvenient fact: Capitalism and Politics are both about Power and England’s motivation for wanting the 1707 union was political not economic. England now wants Scotland because it wants to keep power over Scotland. Resources are a bonus but if Keeping Scotland were to weaken England’s power and Scotland could not be reduced to submission, England would drop us instantly.
A Note of Optimism
It is possible Westminster wants to get rid if Scotland but not take the blame. A top civil servant has bemoaned the lack of panic in Downing Street over the prospect of the breakup of the UK and at present it looks like Honest Boris wants to throw the election so he can blame the winners for everything and sweep back to power in a year or two.
Reading Westminster is a bit like reading the Kremlin during The Cold War. We need to practice thinking like Westminster, and get deep into their mindset. Don’t try that at home without a responsible adult to keep you safe and bring you back to reality. If you have mediumistic powers maybe you can grab a pen and let the spirit of Westminster write without any input from your conscious mind and let someone else read the writing. Again, do this at your own risk.
The somewhat confused tealeaves of the present political landscape indicate cautious optimism about the prospect of independence within the next three years. The upsets of every test of public opinion from 2014 onward however allow no room for complacency. Complacency will delay independence. The demographic trend since 2014 has strengthened demand for independence and Brexit, if it takes place, may accelerate this trend and push us past the winning post.