ArtsAutosBooksBusinessEducationEntertainmentFamilyFashionFoodGamesGenderHealthHolidaysHomeHubPagesPersonal FinancePetsPoliticsReligionSportsTechnologyTravel

It May Seem like Trump Will Lose, But Can He Reverse His Fortunes?

Updated on September 6, 2020
JoshuaWright02 profile image

Joshua is an A level student studying politics due to his fascination and in the subject. He is especially interested in US politics.

The Black Lives Matter Movement May Prove To Be Just What Trump Needs

With the brutal and unlawful killing of George Floyd came the outrage that ensued. More and more Americans came to realize that there was a problem when it came to how African Americans are treated by the criminal justice system. With the outrage came civil unrest that spread throughout the US and even some parts of the world. The Black Lives Matter movement quickly became one of the biggest social movements in US history. However, the movement had its demands. Defunding the police, reparations for slavery, and police reform were ideas that gained momentum within the movement.

Seeing an opportunity to use the riots to paint the movement as violent as a whole, Trump started to paint himself as a law and order candidate. In the 2020 Republican National Convention speech in which he accepted his party's nomination, Mr. Trump said that Novembers vote is a choice between whether or not "the American way of life" will be defended or whether the US will allow a "radical movement to completely dismantle and destroy it". Over time approval of the Black Lives Matter movement began to fall as violence became more widespread and divisions grew. This is where Trump's true opportunity lies. If Trump can successfully tie Biden and the Democrats to the movement he may well be able to once again use identity politics to his advantage.

Underneath some of the opposition to the BLM movement exists a type of anxiety among some white Americans about the changing racial demographics of the country. Attacking BLM is nothing but a way for those who have this anxiety to vent it in a way that is deemed more acceptable. And Trump knows this and also knows how to exploit this anxiety too.

Could This Reverse Trump's Fortunes?

Well, if the data is correct then maybe so. A new survey conducted by Marquette Law School found that before the shooting of Jacob Blake support for the movement in Wisconsin had declined by 13 points between June and early August whilst the movements +25 net-positive approval rating had been completely dismantled. This is certainly bad news for the Biden campaign and good news for the Trump camp as Wisconsin is a pivotal state which may just decide the election. Along with the decline in support for Black Lives Matter came Biden's diminishing polling lead over President Trump. A new national poll conducted by The Hill/Harris X found that Biden's lead over Trump had gone from 10 points to 4. With this data, it seems that Trump is successfully narrowing the gap, just like 2016 eh?

But What If It's Detrimental?

The shooting of George Floyd and Jacob Blake may prove to be harmful to Mr. Trump's chances come November...

Picture what would happen if African American voters, motivated by the recent instances of police brutality and the Black Lives Matter movement that subsequently grew came out in droves to vote against President Trump come November 3rd. high African American turnout was a key factor in Obama's 2008 landslide victory, and if such turnout were replicated this year it could hugely benefit Mr. Biden in states such as Michigan and Georgia. Furthermore, it could also increase young voter turnout too in favor of Mr. Biden. So Trump should also be perhaps worried more than he is hopeful. This is not 2016, and he is now accountable.



"I am your president of law and order" - Donald Trump, June 1st 2020

Trump's Authoritarian Appeal

There is an increasing amount of evidence that American voters are becoming concerned with the recent violence in places such as Kenosha and Portland. A new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center found that 59% of voters found violent crime to be very important in how they vote and the matter is rated the 5th biggest issue in the election whereas, in 2016, it was not even in the top 10. meanwhile, according to the FBI, there has been a surge in gun sales which is evident when you look at the record 3.9m background checks conducted in June.

Trump has criticized the Democrats (especially Biden and Harris) for not speaking out forcefully enough against the rioting and the violence. Trump may be using his law and order message to win over suburban voters, who are a very important and influential voting cohort who may just decide the outcome of the election. currently, Biden is leading nationally in the suburbs, however, if Trump can convince suburban voters that violent scenes being seen in Portland and Kenosha may become widespread under Biden then he may be able to convince those oh so important suburban voters that a vote for him is a vote to keep their families safe.


George Floyd's death has sparked a level of activism not seen since the 60s
George Floyd's death has sparked a level of activism not seen since the 60s
However, the violent nature of some of the protests may damage support for the movement
However, the violent nature of some of the protests may damage support for the movement

But Is The Message Resonating With Voters?

Even though a lot of voters do not like the rioting and violence we have seen. Most Americans are more concerned with the coronavirus and how Trump is handling it.

According to a YouGov survey conducted on September 2nd, 2020, 56% of Americans think violence would get worse should he be re-elected compared to the 15% who thought it would stay the same and the 18% who thought it would get better. The same poll also found what 42% said they would feel safer if Biden were to be elected whereas 40% said they would feel unsafer.

The poll also found that 55% of Americans thought that Trump's statements make things worse compared to the 49% of people who said Biden does not make a difference with his statements.


Those Oh So Important Suburbanites

In the 2018 midterm elections, the Democratic party won a sizable majority in the House of Representatives partly due to the historic turnout for the Democrats. Midterm turnout was the highest in 104 years. many suburban voters also helped to flip seats in counties such as Fort Bend, Houston. With polling showing Biden with a huge 16 point lead among suburban voters there is reason to believe that Biden may even do better among those voters. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 6% of suburban voters found crime to be their biggest issue whilst healthcare and the economy were top issues both scoring 21% respectively. And as Biden consistently leads on the issue of healthcare and is closing the gap when it comes to the economy, well, this spells trouble for Trump.

So maybe Trump's 'law and order' message may not be resonating all that much with the voters that Trump needs to win over. But if there is anything that we do know its that Mr. Trump is very persuasive. So maybe, if he plays his cards right, Mr. Trump may have an effective campaign message which could help him stun the world once again..

The word "Black Lives Matter" painted on the road to the White House
The word "Black Lives Matter" painted on the road to the White House

Poll: What Do You See As The Most Important Issue?

What Do You See As The Most Important Issue?

See results

Comments

    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment
    • Sharlee01 profile image

      Sharlee 

      10 months ago

      "HarrisX-Hill survey finds Black support increases from 15% to 24%. President Trump’s approval rating among Black voters jumped by 60% during the Republican National Committee even as Democrats and progressives sought to brand the Republican president as racist. A HarrisX-Hill poll released Friday showed Mr. Trump’s net approval with Black..".

      https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2051312704449/trump...

      Enjoyed the read...

    working

    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, hubpages.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://corp.maven.io/privacy-policy

    Show Details
    Necessary
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Features
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Marketing
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Statistics
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)
    ClickscoThis is a data management platform studying reader behavior (Privacy Policy)