Joe Biden Is the Front Runner but There Are Ways He Could Blow His Chances Away
The American political scenario is hot with the presidential election just four months away. Add to this a belligerent China and the spread of the Wuhan virus and the cup appears to be full. The two main contenders for the coveted post of the President of the United States are Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Both men are in the winter of their life with Joe Biden being 77 and Donald Trump 74 and this would be the last shot for both of them at the Presidentship.
The opinion polls show Donald Trump is the underdog. He's been trailing successively behind the Democrat candidate. Despite the opinion polls the Republicans seem to feel that Donald Trump will win while most Democrats are hoping that Biden will be able to turn the tables.
I still believe Biden will be our President in eight months, but I am not unaware of the fact that there are many scenarios in which he could blow it – and that Trump could take the White House once again.
It must be borne in mind that Biden has twice earlier blown the chance to get a crack at the top job more noticeably in 1988 when he appeared to be the frontrunner. Maybe the astrological stars do not favor him and that is the reason that for the last 30 years he is not able to get a crack at the presidentship and his chance has come only now.
The American election is not a popular vote but a system of electoral votes state wise with the result the man who may not win the popular vote may still make it to the White House. Biden will gear up his campaign and ensure that he does not make strategic errors that pave the path for Trump to get back into the White House.
Roadblocks for Biden
As I have already pointed out Joe Biden is the frontrunner in the coming election. He has to make a strategic plan for the campaign. The first thing he must remember that he must not identify too closely with the thoughts and ideas of Bernie Sanders. He may try to mirror the ideas of Bernie Sanders to win over his supporters. He would do well to remember that the American public at large does not like extreme left-wing views. He must bear in mind that Bernie Sanders despite an impressive start fell by the wayside as the majority of the people simply didn't want him.
So far, Biden has shown Sanders's supporter's attention and adopted ideas from the Sanders camp. He has made efforts to include Sanders' personnel in his campaign. Rumer Godden wrote, "Thus far and no further" and Biden needs to follow this and identify with the mass of the Americans many of whom are disenchanted with Trump.
Biden must plan his campaign and refuse to reply to Trump's baits. Trump is a master showman and he will be looking forward to the debates with Biden. These will be crucial for the Democratic challenger and a poor performance there may well mark the end of his road to the White House. One of the skills of Trump is the conversation and he excels in it. Biden will have to plan his replies very carefully and prepare for the debates which in American elections have a very important place. One of Trump's few skills is driving the conversation. Biden needs to appear statesmanlike and not respond to every jibe of Trump.
My friends in America tell me that they are whispers going around that Biden has a cognitive decline. Many Republicans are pointing to this aspect of Biden. I will not discuss this more here but Biden will have to ensure that he doesn't make any gaffe or mistake.
Another factor that will have a bearing in the coming election is the running mate for the Democrat candidate. Many names are being talked about with Kamala Harris looking to be a frontrunner at the moment. To my mind this will be important but not critical as a win or loss will depend on him and how he reacts to Donald Trump.
Trump can steal home again
Any of the above missteps by Biden could help Trump. Another factor that will have a bearing on the coming election is the Wuhan virus. It's hard to imagine Trump winning based on the state of the country today.
A plus point for him would be if the virus goes into hibernation and the economy rebounds to its earlier potential. If that happens and Trump behaves in a disciplined manner he can win the trust of the people back.
The last point I have is the polarisation along racial and minority lines. Despite all the agitations, arson, and looting, I do not see how much of an effect it will have on the coming election. This is because Trump has a committed voter base who come what may, vote for Trump.
If the virus remains throughout the summer and the number of deaths and casualties keep on going up Trump will have a difficult time and that is where Biden will have to capitalize. All is not over for the president and despite the opinion polls, we must remember that the country was shocked four years back.
If Joe Biden does win it will mean that sanity would have been restored to the American presidentship and the maverick approach of the President would be a thing of the past. A big factor which Biden will have to face in China. Previous presidents have treated the People's Republic with kid gloves and the result is there for all to see. One will have to wait and see how successful he is.