July 2019 Debate
Will any of these candidates miss the "bus" to debate #2?
Probability of Taking Detroit Stage for "Bubble" Candidates - Updated July 9, 2019
Candidate
| rank
| Probability
|
|---|---|---|
Ryan
| 1
| 99%
|
Hickenlooper
| 2
| 98%
|
Delaney
| 3
| 96%
|
deBlasio
| 4
| 94%
|
Bennet
| 5
| 92%
|
Bullock
| 6
| 88%
|
Swalwell
| 7
| 0%
|
July 30-31, 2019 Pre-Debate Analysis - Updated July 9, 2019
The rules for the 2nd debate in late July mirror those of the 1st debate. Candidates must have 1% in three qualifying polls or 65,000 unique donors over 20 different states. The rules used to break ties are the same as in debate #1, priority given to candidates who meet both poll and donor requirements. If more than 20 candidates met both criteria, then polling averages are used and if ties still exist, the decision is based on the number of polls with the qualifying criterion.
Who may get left out of the Detroit debate?. As of the date of this article, with Swalwell withdrawing, there are now only 20 apparently qualified candidates chasing 20 positions. A total of 14 candidates appear to make a strong case to be on stage based on polls and fund raising. The remaining 6 candidates are therefore chasing 6 positions. Bullock got knocked out of the 1st debate, but appears to be a serious competitor for debate #2. I have these six candidates currently ranked as follows: Ryan, Hickenlooper, Delaney, deBlasio, Bennet, and Bullock.
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