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Predictions for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Updated on February 10, 2020

This disarray might lead to a repeat of 2016. Despite the overwhelming unhappiness with President Trump from the Democrats, Republicans are nearly 95% happy with their orange hair leader, Trump. I don't expect this to change much.

What will change is what happens on the Democratic side. If Warren or Sanders gets the nomination of the party, many moderate democrats who dislike either, face the 2016 options, again. They will either vote for Trump or not vote at all. Neither Sanders nor Warren would fair well against Trump. Both candidates are simply too far left for most independents or moderate voters.

Joe Biden is a bit of an enigma. He has it to lose as he did in Iowa and most likely, New Hampshire. He awaits the more diverse states where the non-white voters will make him the chosen one, but that remains to be seen. Should Biden be the one to go head to head with Trump, I am a bit skeptical that he would always be the winner. The more I see him, the more I worry. Is he all there? Maybe. He is old and acts old. Biden would also face a deluge of slurs and fake news about his Ukrainian actions that can look suspicious. Of course, Trump provides a lot of the same from the profits he and his kids have made since he took office.

Maybe a Biden\Klobachar ticket might work. Both are seasoned in government. She is certainly better than Pence. Pete Buttigieg is just a whim. He might do very well in all white states like Iowa or New Hampshire, but I suspect by the time of the nomination in June, he will be a memory of the past. I just don't think America would put a gay person in the White House at this time.

Bloomberg will act as a spoiler, soaking off the need votes from more leading candidates in the primaries. Should he get the nomination, which I highly doubt, he would be a foe for Trump. Two billionaires bashing each other. Not a good look for American democracy.

In the end, in November, the Dems will win the popular vote as they did in 2016, but Trump very well may win the chosen spot by getting the most electoral votes, which really are more important. The race will be close like in 2016 or it may be like a 1972 McGovern election- a total landslide for either party.


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