Rise of China and Trouble for Pakistan

In the past few years we have come across many examples wherein the United States and China have confronted each other. May it be the recent examples in the South China Sea, relationship with North Korea, China's stand in Afghanistan or China's direct support to Russia. Each of these instances show that the United Stares have limited options to counter the dragon. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has also become a major concern for regional powers and the United States as it would mean China's dominance in oil routes and also with a new port in Pakistan, China will get a strong hold in the Indian ocean which is currently predominantly under India's sphere of influence. With the economic success of China, Yuan may very well replace the US dollar as the primary global currency in the future if China continues to grow at the same rate.

With the Chinese military strength, it is impossible for the United States to wage a direct war on China. So the possible options include destabilizing China just like they did in Syria, Libya, Iraq and are currently trying in other middle east countries like Iran. They are already working on this as a long term option. Other options include countering China's allies and supporting regional powers to counter China. This is where the problem for Pakistan starts.

Since its independence, Pakistan has enjoyed a good support from the United States whenever there was a conflict with India. Historically the United States has either remained silent or sometimes even supported Pakistan in its anti-India activities. But with changes in the Geo-political situations, Pakistan needs to start worrying now. For the United States it is geographically important to get India on its side. It has already started doing so by engaging joint operations with the Indian Navy in South China Sea and by increasing co-operation with India in military, trade and finance. The United States has also denied funding Pakistan for F-16 planes recently which seems aligned to their bigger interest of countering China. It may well go one step ahead and join hands with India in first destabilizing Pakistan and carving Baluchistan out of Pakistan. This is a win win situation for both India and USA because what it would mean for India is a weakened Pakistan and for the United States it would mean one ally less for China and a rapid rise of India as an Asian Super Power. Second advantage for the United States in doing so is to split Iran as well since Baluchistan has major portion in Iran and we all know the relations between Iran and the United States have already turned sour. Though this is a tough task, there are a few other small steps which USA may take including banning of some organizations in Pakistan which India claims to be spreading terrorism, disrupting the developments of China Pakistan economic corridor, bragging for a permanent seat for India in the United Nations Security Council and stopping the financial aid which it has been giving to Pakistan for past few decades. Recently the United States used it muscle power to designate the 26/11 Mumbai Attacks mastermind Hafiz Saed as a Global Terrorist, despite all the opposition from China in the United Nation Security Council. This is inline with its strategy to support India and counter China.

One more factor in India's favor is that its rise has been very peaceful so far and it is known for its soft diplomacy. With China, its rise has been that of a hard power with Dragon symbolically eating the United States. So in this fight between the King Kong and Godzilla, Pakistani ant will be crushed and Indian Elephant will not hold its step back when it comes to crushing Pakistan with the help of the United States. With right wing leaders both in the United States and as well as India, we have already started seeing the results on Pakistan‘s economy. Recently Pakistan narrowly escaped an economic default and manged to get a bail from the IMF to support its sinking economy. The Pakistani currency is crashing at an alarming rate and inflation is also at all time high. The Lok Sabha Elections in India have just concluded and the right wing Modi government is back in power. This for sure is not a good sign from Pakistan's perspective.

Pakistan is getting isolated at the world stage due to change in geopolitical situation in South Asia, especially due to rise of India and China. Let us hope to see a peaceful rise of both the Asian giants India and China.