Rise of China and trouble for Pakistan
India key for United States to balance power equations in Asia
China's progress and recent events.
In past few years we have come accross many examples where United States and China stood right opposite to each other. May it be recent examples in South China sea or relation with North Korea or China's stand in Afghanistan or China's direct support to Russia.Each of these instances show United states limitations to counter China. The China-Pakistan economic corridor has also become a major concern for regional powers and United States as it would mean China's dominance in oil routes and also with new port in Pakistan.China will get a strong hold in Indian ocean which is currently predominantly under India's sphere of influence.With economic success of China , Yuan may very well replace US dollar as the primary global currency.
What can the US do?
With Chinese military strength , its impossible for United States to wage a war on China.So the possible options include destabilizing China just like they did in Syria, Libya ,Iraq and trying in other middle east countries.They are already working on this as a long term option.Other options include countering China's allies and supporting regional powers to counter China. This is where the problem for Pakistan starts.
Since independence Pakistan has enjoyed a good support from United States whenever there was a conflict with India . Historically the United States either remained silent or sometimes even supported Pakistan in its anti-India activities.But with changes in geo-political situations , Pakistan needs to start worrying now.For the United States its important to get India on its side. It has already started doing so by engaging joint operations with Indian Navy in South China sea and increasing co-operation with India in military ,trade and finance. USA also denied funding Pakistan for F16 planes recently which seems aligned to their bigger interest of countering China.USA may well go one step ahead and join hands with India in first destabilizing Pakistan and carving Baluchistan out of Pakistan.This is a win win situation for both India and USA because what it would mean for India is a weakened Pakistan and for United States it would mean one ally less for China and rapid rise of India as an Asia power. Second advantage for United States in doing so is to split Iran as well since Baluchistan has major portion in Iran and we all know relations of Iran and United States.Though this is tough task , there are few other small steps which USA may take including banning of some organizations in Pakistan which India claims to be spreading terrorism , disrupting the developments of China Pakistan economic corridor, bragging for a permanent seat for India in UN security council and stopping the financial aid which it has been giving to Pakistan for past few decades.
One more factor in India's favour is that its rise has been very peaceful so far and it is known for its soft diplomacy.With China, its rise has been that of a hard power with Dragon symbolically eating the United States.So in this fight of King Kong and Godzilla , Pakistani ant will be crushed and Indian Elephant will not hold its step back when it comes to crushing Pakistan with the help of United States.It would be interesting to see how things turn out in near future especially considering US elections and Donald Trumph as potential candidate...