Senate Races 2020

There are 35 races in the 2020 United States Senate elections. The Incumbent is Republican in 23 races and Democratic in 12 races. There are currently 53 Republican Senators, 45 Democratic Senators, and 2 Independent Senators. Since both Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats, the split is effectively 53 Republican and 47 Democrats.

If Trump is elected President in 2020, then Democrats would need to gain 4 or more seats to get to 51. If a Democrat is elected, the Democrats would need to gain 3 or more seats to be in the majority.

The mathematical analysis to determine the probabilities that a candidate from a particular party will win in any race is based on four inputs: Politico rating, Cook rating, Inside Elections' rating and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating. Each input is equally weighted, and a projection is made for each race. Additional inputs, including polling data, will be added when available. Currently, there is no polling data published for Senate races for 2020.

The probability that the Democrats will gain control of the Senate in 2020 with 51 seats or more is only 7%. The probability that the Democrats would gain control of the Senate with 50 seats or more (assuming Trump is not re-elected) is 24%. Each time the inputs change, the bottom line numbers will be updated.

You can read this author's article on who will win the race to be nominated as the Democrat to compete against Trump here. If you are interested, also check out my article on the House Races.

There is a little less than a one in four chance the Democrats can win control of the Senate with a 50 seat "majority" and that assumes a Democrat wins the Presidential election. There is only about a one in fourteen chance the Democrats gain control with a clear majority of 51 seats.

The Democrats clearly have an uphill battle to win at least 3 seats (If a Democrat wins Presidential election) or 4 seats if Trump is re-elected.

The most likely scenario for Democrats to get to 50 seats from 47 seats is to defeat the Republican incumbent in four states (AZ, CO, NC, ME) and to hold MI. That assumes a Democratic loss in AL where the incumbent is a Democrat. The most likely scenario for Democrats to get to 51 seats is to defeat the incumbent in four states (AZ, CO, NC, ME) and hold their seats in two states (AL, MI).