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Senate Races 2020

Updated on December 30, 2019
Senator Cory Gardner, Colorado
Senator Cory Gardner, Colorado | Source

Overview of 2020 Senate Races (Updated December 29, 2019)

There are 35 races in the 2020 United States Senate elections. The Incumbent is Republican in 23 races and Democratic in 12 races. There are currently 53 Republican Senators, 45 Democratic Senators, and 2 Independent Senators. Since both Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats, the split is effectively 53 Republican and 47 Democrats.

If Trump is elected President in 2020, then Democrats would need to gain 4 or more seats to get to 51. If a Democrat is elected, the Democrats would need to gain 3 or more seats to be in the majority.

The mathematical analysis to determine the probabilities that a candidate from a particular party will win in any race is based on four inputs: Politico rating, Cook rating, Inside Elections' rating and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating. Each input is equally weighted, and a projection is made for each race. Additional inputs, including polling data, will be added when available. Currently, there is no polling data published for Senate races for 2020.

The probability that the Democrats will gain control of the Senate in 2020 with 51 seats or more is only 7%. The probability that the Democrats would gain control of the Senate with 50 seats or more (assuming Trump is not re-elected) is 24%. Each time the inputs change, the bottom line numbers will be updated.

You can read this author's article on who will win the race to be nominated as the Democrat to compete against Trump here. If you are interested, also check out my article on the House Races.


Senator Thom Tillis - North Carolina (Republican)

Senator Thom Tillis, North Carolina
Senator Thom Tillis, North Carolina | Source

Probabilities Democrats Win the Senate in 2020 (Updated December 18, 2019)

Democrats
Probability
53 seats or more
0.1%
52 seats or more
1.4%
51 seats or more
7.4%
50 seats or more*
23.4%

*Democrats gain control of the Senate regardless of who wins the Presidential election with 51 seats or more. Democrats gain control of Senate with 50 seats only if a Democrat wins the Presidential election.

Analysis - Democratic Control of U.S, Senate in 2020 (Updated December 21, 2019)

There is a little less than a one in four chance the Democrats can win control of the Senate with a 50 seat "majority" and that assumes a Democrat wins the Presidential election. There is only about a one in fourteen chance the Democrats gain control with a clear majority of 51 seats.

Senator Martha McSally, Arizona
Senator Martha McSally, Arizona | Source

8 Most Competitive Senate Races in 2020 (Updated December 18, 2019)

State (Incumbent)
Probability Democrat Wins
Probability Republican Wins
AZ (R)
50%
50%
CO (R)
50%
50%
NC (R)
46%
54%
ME (R)
41%
59%
AL (D)
39%
61%
MI (D)
69%
31%
IA (R)
31%
69%
GA (R)*
27%
73%

* There are two Senate races in Georgia. This race has Perdue as the Incumbent.

State Senate Race Analysis (Updated December 18, 2019)

The Democrats clearly have an uphill battle to win at least 3 seats (If a Democrat wins Presidential election) or 4 seats if Trump is re-elected.

The most likely scenario for Democrats to get to 50 seats from 47 seats is to defeat the Republican incumbent in four states (AZ, CO, NC, ME) and to hold MI. That assumes a Democratic loss in AL where the incumbent is a Democrat. The most likely scenario for Democrats to get to 51 seats is to defeat the incumbent in four states (AZ, CO, NC, ME) and hold their seats in two states (AL, MI).

7 Next Most Competitive 2020 Senate Races (Updated December 30, 2019)

State (Incumbent)
Probability Democrat Wins
Probability Republican Wins
GA (R)*
20%
80%
NH (D)
80%
20%
TX (R)
20%
80%
MN (D)
84%
16%
NM (D)
84%
16%
KS (R)
16%
84%
KY (R)
16%
84%

*Open seat

Comments

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    • Angel Guzman profile image

      Angel Guzman 

      9 months ago from Joliet, Illinois

      If Doug Jones wins I'm predicting a 1964 or 1984 type landslide. I hope democrats get 51 seats. Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Iowa, Kentucky, Georgia will be very interesting.

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