The Democrats Are the Likely Winners of the 2018 Midterms - How Do We Know That?

After a deflating loss in November 2016, the "left" are looking to piece together some sort of foundation for the midterms later this year. After a few special election wins¹ (and a few seats saved), their focus is now on November 2018.

They are in a particularly vulnerable spot, however:

• First, political analysts predicted that Hillary Clinton would win by a (quite large) landslide in 2017². The result of the 2016 election shocked many; an upset could occur once more.
• Second, more Democratic Senate seats are up for grabs than Republican, giving them a larger margin for error (8 R., 25 D.)³
• In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold control (235 R., 193 D., seven seats vacant.)⁴

There is hope for the Democratic Party. Most analysts are pointing to the fact that Trump won 10 states with a Democratic incumbent, and Clinton only winning one state with a Republican incumbent⁵. While this is true, I think that special elections can be seen as evidence that Democrats are holding momentum.

For one, Trump's most popular day, according to FiveThirtyEight, was the fourth official day of his presidency. His average popularity rating hovers around 40% (give or take around 5%). Obama at this time was around 48% and had started around 64%⁶. Obama was a whole 8 points higher in rating, and in no way popular. The midterm results in 2010 (and 2014) show that popularity rating of a president affects those available seats⁷. Harry Enten wants to make it clear that it isn't necessarily a 1-to-1 ratio, however, as that data has a +/- of 33 seats in the House vote, which makes it (very) hard to rely on it⁸. There are also structural issues, with district lines favoring the GOP, as well as voting averages being more male and more white in the midterms.⁹ All of this means that, while there is some evidence that an unpopular president means unpopular candidates, there's no guarantee.

Two, special elections in 2017 highlight the possibility that those 10 states won by Trump in 2016 may come up democrat after all. For instance, in Alabama, Trump won that state by almost a 28 point margin over Clinton in 2016. However, in 2017, Roy Moore lost the state by 1.5%¹⁰. A tight win, but still a win. [To be totally fair, Moore was a very, very flawed canidate]. Just north in Kansas, Ron Estes won the seat by 6.8%, which may seem uncountable for the Democrats, but Trump won the state by 20.5% in 2016¹¹.

Within states, there is much evidence of leftward momentum. For instance, in New Hampshire, Philip Spagnuolo won by 7 points in a district that Trump had won by 12, taking out the Republican incumbent¹². In Connecticut, a red member flipped a blue seat 51-49%, but that district was won by Clinton 49-47%¹³. Further east in Kentucky, Linda Belcher won against the Republican candidate in a district that polled 72-23% for Trump in 2016¹⁴. All in all, Democrats have picked off 41 seats in special elections¹⁵, but what does that mean for the midterms?

There are many things that can happen between now and November, and all of them are unlikely. The democratic party is holding momentum now, and that will probably continue. The blue wave is sweeping America and likely drown Washington. Whether or not this affects 2020 will probably depend on the Democrat's performance. For now, one can conclude that Democrats are taking on a new strategy: trying.

¹ https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/02/28/democrats-keep-winning-special-elections-blue-wave-may-coming-this-fall/uAkVqRiRnHJUZf5QG0bxdJ/story.html

² http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

³ https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._Congress_elections,_2018

⁴ Ibid.

⁵ Ibid.

⁶ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

⁷ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-very-early-look-at-the-battle-for-the-house-in-2018/

⁸ Ibid.

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/12/roy-moore-loses-alabama-senate-race-doug-jones-wins

¹¹ https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4

¹² https://www.vox.com/2018/2/27/17060358/new-hampshire-special-election-results

¹³ Ibid.

¹⁴ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kentucky-election/democrat-picks-up-seat-in-special-election-for-kentucky-legislature-idUSKCN1G507Q

¹⁵ https://www.vox.com/2018/2/27/17060358/new-hampshire-special-election-results

¹⁶ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/

¹⁷ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-reason-to-think-republicans-will-be-in-better-shape-a-year-from-now/